I don’t think that the Iranian regime is nearly as shaky as some seem to believe and I also don’t believe that the Israelis are in nearly as strong a position as some seem to be claiming.
With respect to the mullahocracy, I suspect its support remains quite strong among the rural and urban poor. Yes, they’ve taken substantial losses of leadership personnel. I have no idea how deep their “bench” is.
And with respect to Israel I have no idea how many offensive and defensive weapons remain in their arsenal. A serious depletion of the missiles that constitute their “Iron Dome” would have dire implications. Neither they nor we can replenish them particularly quickly. The advantage they have there is that the Iranians’ inventory is being depleted too and it can’t be replenished particularly quickly, either.
What I do know is that we have a recent history of underestimating the staying power of our opponents.
Please don’t construe this post as my declaring defeat. As the title of this post indicates, I’m asking a question rather than making a claim. The more opinion pieces I read that say the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse the more I suspect propaganda at work.
