George Friedman considers Russia’s recent actions:
It’s possible, then, that Moscow wanted to float an impossible proposal for propaganda purposes. But the value of world public opinion compared to a successful military operation is minimal. After an invasion, public opinion would be against Russian aggression regardless of diplomatic niceties. The value of public opinion, in other words, only takes you so far.
The only conclusion to be drawn is that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine, as Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has repeatedly said. Given that Russia failed to act when it could and arguably should have, it seems to me that he might have been telling the truth. On the other hand, we have seen the Russians be active, albeit more subtly, in Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Logic dictates that Russia must rebuild its historic buffer zone and that Ukraine is essential in this regard. Moscow has done everything in its power to create an atmosphere of crisis. Perhaps it had intelligence that the U.S. and NATO would fold their cards. But the U.S. can’t afford to do nothing. President Joe Biden’s threat to the Russian banking system is either far more devastating than I can fathom or simply a cover for military action. So in this sense, the U.S. is being coy as well, just not nearly as confusingly as the Russians.
My best guess is the Russians have set up negotiation with the most extreme demands as a normal negotiating strategy. But the fact remains that Russian forces are deployed, and resistance is being strengthened. It may be that the Russians are simply confident that their force is still able to win. But a rule of war is that you strike at maximum advantage, and give away no advantage. The rule of diplomacy is to make a lot of threats before making a deal. Right now, it’s one or the other.
Or Putin could just be insane. I doubt it; I think he’s the ultimate realist.
In all of this commentary I’ve heard exactly one good reason for defending Ukraine in the event of a Russian incursion and it has nothing to do with Ukraine but with Taiwan. Note that everything Mr. Friedman says about Russia, Putin, and Ukraine applies just as well to China, Xi, and Taiwan.
Friedman has succumbed to the fake news permeating the US media.
The fact remains that Russian troops are NOT deployed for an invasion of Ukraine. They are stationed in their normal bases some 100 to 150 miles away from Ukraine’s border with Russia. Moreover, Pres. Zelenskii and other senior Ukrainians leaders have publicly stated that NO Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/a-parthogenetic-conflict-there-is-no-russian-invasion-threat-to-ukraine.html#more
and (numerous links):
http://thesaker.is/tuesday-morning-headlines-a-little-change-of-tone-or-not/
The President of Croatia (in one of the Saker links) says that no Russian invasion is in sight, and that the crisis was concocted in Washington for domestic politics. He also said that Croatia would not participate in any anti-Russia war, and that he would remove Croatian troops from any NATO formation if such a war was threatened.
The current hysteria in the US/UK is inexplicable. We are being bull-rushed into a major European land war for no reason whatsoever.
Also Russia’s motives are clear and have been stated. They want (1) the Minsk accords put into effect, and (2) they want security guarantees that reduce the current threat to Russian territory. The Russian demands are NOT extreme. But our neocon leadership is insane, and they are capable of any war crime you can imagine.
After the USSR broke up, there was a period when Russia could have become a normal European state, with membership in both the EU and NATO. Every Russian leader supported that, including explicitly Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Medvedev, and Putin. In Putin’s own words, he wanted a “united Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” (a riff on De Gaulle’s dream of “a Europe form the Atlantic to the Urals.” The US worked diligently to prevent that. It set up and ran the coup that removed the legitimate, democratically elected government of Ukraine. It forced two Ukrainian Presidents (Poroshenko and Zelenskii) to repudiate the Minsk accords. It might be noted that Zelenskii ran on a program of making peace with the Donbas and Russia. And now the US/UK is ginning up a phoney war, surely for domestic political reasons.
In my view, Russia wants to end any chance of Ukraine joining NATO or otherwise becoming a part of anything resembling an anti-Russian political, military, and/or economic alliance. It’s really that simple. What’s different is that Russia is prepared to threaten and possibly go to war to ensure it.
Russian troops are NOT deployed for an invasion of Ukraine. They are stationed in their normal bases some 100 to 150 miles away from Ukraine’s border with Russia. There is, however, a whole lot of moving the pieces around, perhaps for some action after the Olympics. That action would most likely be positioning some weapons in the Western Hemisphere.
Moreover, Pres. Zelenskii and other senior Ukrainians leaders have publicly stated that NO Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/a-parthogenetic-conflict-there-is-no-russian-invasion-threat-to-ukraine.html#more
and (numerous links):
http://thesaker.is/tuesday-morning-headlines-a-little-change-of-tone-or-not/
The President of Croatia (in one of the Saker links) says that no Russian invasion is in sight, and that the crisis was concocted in Washington for domestic politics. He also said that Croatia would not participate in any anti-Russia war, and that he would remove Croatian troops from any NATO formation if such a war was threatened.
The current hysteria in the US/UK is inexplicable. We are being bull-rushed into a major European land war for no reason whatsoever.
Also Russia’s motives are clear and have been stated. They want (1) the Minsk accords put into effect, and (2) they want security guarantees that reduce the current threat to Russian territory. The Russian demands are NOT extreme. But our neocon leadership is insane, and they are capable of any war crime you can imagine.
Note that the Minsk accords, negotiated by Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany, convert Ukraine to a federal state with home rule for the oblasts. The accords also provide for minority rights, like the right to use one’s native language. Russian is illegal in Ukraine. The US has so far successfully blocked the accords, despite the fact that they would end the civil war and keep the rest of Ukraine intact. But apparently the US is opposed to both.
After the USSR broke up, there was a period when Russia could have become a normal European state, with membership in both the EU and NATO. Every Russian leader supported that, including explicitly Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Medvedev, and Putin. In Putin’s own words, he wanted a “united Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” (a riff on De Gaulle’s dream of “a Europe form the Atlantic to the Urals.”) The US worked diligently to prevent that. It set up and ran the coup that removed the legitimate, democratically elected government of Ukraine. It forced two Ukrainian Presidents (Poroshenko and Zelenskii) to repudiate the Minsk accords. It might be noted that Zelenskii ran on a program of making peace with the Donbas and Russia. And now the US/UK is ginning up a phoney war, surely for domestic political reasons.
I can’t even conjure up a scenario in which a major European war would be politically motivated in the West.
Western reaction to Russian demands reminds me that fear has big eyes.
This will settle down.