There’s something going on in Russia but for the life of me I can’t figure out what.
first, the head man of the Wagner Group mercenaries, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, made a speech complaining about the Russian Ministry of Defense’s handling of the war in Ukraine. In the Western press some are saying he denounced Putin but if you actually listen to the speech he didn’t mention Putin by name. Then the Wagner mercenaries marched into Roslov, a town in southern Russia, and basically took it over without firing a shot.
Then today Putin addressed the country, denouncing Prigozhin.
There have been various characterizations of the events as an attempted coup, a psyop, or a psychotic break. I don’t actually know what’s going on.
Overthrowing Putin might well bring an end to the war in Ukraine just not in the way that those calling for that in the West might want. Most of the Russian language complaints about the war I’ve come across have been complaints that they’re being too soft on the Ukrainians not that Russia should withdraw from Ukraine.
Perhaps the best comment on what’s going on was made by Niccolo Macchiavelli 500 years ago who warned about relying on mercenaries. Mercenary captains always have ambitions of their own.
Update
Joe Gandelman has a round-up of reactions to the Western media’s general ignoring of the situation:
The biggest international story of the day (the year?) broke on June 23, 2023 when Russia’s Wagner mercinary chief Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin said Russia’s war in Ukraine was based on lies and declared war on the Russian leadership, saying Wagner forces would destroy it. Russia ordered Prigozhin’s arrests on mutiny charges, while the Wagner group reportedly began advancing on cities.
The biggest cable news networks carried the story but remained focused on a parade of interviews on the tragic implosion of the Titan submerisble, which killed five people including the company’s CEO.
There used to be a saying in the days when print media was dominant: If it bleeds, it leads. Cable news seemingly has a saying: If it implodes, viewership explodes.
It wasn’t that cable was totally ignoring the story. But cable seemed unable to rearrange its priorities in the initial hours that the story broke to give it the priority it deserved.
Perhaps a referesher course in Journalism 101 might help. But cable’s Russian coup-attempt coverage was a reminder that many years ago broadcast news ceased being a cherished stewardship and became big bucks entertainment business.
It seems to be all over the blogosphere.
May you live in interesting times……
I turned on the TV as soon as I read this and all 3 of the live TV news channels are covering it. I would assume coverage would be delayed as its not like we now have tons of reporters stationed in Russia, to say nothing of the fact it was so bizarre you could hardly blame them for wanting to confirm and try to get some details.
As to the general topic it’s been a long time since the news channels on TV prioritized news over making money by covering what gets the most views. How much time did they spend covering OJs bronco crawling along the road? Interminable stories about the latest missing little blonde girl? May say more about the viewers than the news shows.
Steve
Apparently, Lukashenko has brokered some sort of deal, and the coup is over. Wagner troops are supposed to return to their camps. Prigozhin and some of the senior officers will go to prison, and the Wagner group will be shut down.
Prigozhin is a war hawk, and agitated for a major escalation of the war. If the coup had succeeded, the Nationalist faction in the Russian government would have replaced Putin and his senior Ministers. Many of the Nationalists want to reestablish the old Russian Empire, which included Belarus, Ukraine, the Central Asian ‘stans, the Baltic states, most of Poland, and parts of Finland. Needless to say, that would not go unopposed.
Hopefully, we have escaped WW III.
Events are moving too fast to really keep up. I’ll just say that this is a very weird series of events, even by Russian standards. There is undoubtedly a lot going on behind the scenes and regarding the internecine military, political, and social conflicts, and the effects of this on the future of Russia could be significant.
I actually wondered at first if it was Ukrainian disinformation but it was so weird that seemed unlikely.
Steve
This is the land of the Potemkin Village so, anything is possible. On a worrisome note, I recall tactical nukes were also sent to Belarus as a deterrent and Wagner maybe self supporting based its African holdings.
My initial reaction was that it was a psyop on Prigozhin’s part (he’s done similar things in the past). Now the “psychotic break” explanation sounds possible.