Thomas Edsall analyzes the polling data in his latest New York Times column and is in a state of shock:
The rise of inflation, supply chain shortages, a surge in illegal border crossings, the persistence of Covid, mayhem in Afghanistan and the uproar over “critical race theory†— all of these developments, individually and collectively, have taken their toll on President Biden and Democratic candidates, so much so that Democrats are now the underdogs going into 2022 and possibly 2024.
Gary Langer, director of polling at ABC News, put it this way in an essay published on the network’s website:
As things stand, if the midterm elections were today, 51 percent of registered voters say they’d support the Republican candidate in their congressional district, 41 percent say the Democrat. That’s the biggest lead for Republicans in the 110 ABC/Post polls that have asked this question since November 1981.
These and other trends have provoked a deepening pessimism about Democratic prospects in 2022 and anxiety about the 2024 presidential election.
What it reminds me of is the old political advice that, whatever else you may do, pick up the garbage and fill the potholes.
Joe Biden rather clearly set out to be the 21st century FDR; he should take care that he does not become the 21st century Hoover. In 1928 Herbert Hoover won 40 of the 48 states—an electoral college landslide. The only states he didn’t carry were Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and the states of the Deep South. Republicans had overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate. As had been the case since the Civil War, most black voters voted Republican.
By 1932 things had changed. Hoover only carried six states, the Democrats had overwhelming majorities in the House and the Senate, black voters began voting Democratic and by 1936 71% of black votes went to the Democratic ticket—a situation that has persisted to this day.
The big difference between now and 90 years ago is the enormous increase in independent voters, voters who are comfortable with neither the Republican nor Democratic parties. The progressive belief is that their policies are overwhelmingly popular and they’d win in landslides if a) Republicans weren’t disenfranchising voters and b) the corporate media would provide better coverage for them. My own view is that their policies are popular in theory but in practice they just don’t work—they’re not picking up the garbage and filling the potholes and this is quite obvious in the cities that have had very progressive governments over the last few years.
What you do matters. People can see that. The benignity of your intentions—not so much.
A well thought out post. Yes, actions do serve the people’s needs more than intentions – especially unfulfilled intentions. I also believe the tone exuding from governmental actions can sway public sentiment, one way or the other.
What I’m mean by “tone†is whether government acts in a synergistic or dogmatic manner with the wishes of the people. The Biden Administration, IMO, is choosing the latter way, ramming policies through with low appeal, while erasing those meeting with public approval. For example, the stealth indoctrination of children with CRT education, the erratic masking demands and authoritarian vaccine mandates are grinding away at people’s trust in this administration. Such misgivings are then coupled with the clumsy withdrawal from Afghanistan that was done with little to no forethought, and fraught with contradictions, lies and mistakes, and Biden’s deconstruction of policies that kept illegal immigration to a manageable flow. Ironically, it was Trump’s personal tone in tweets and remarks that angered people. For Biden, though, it’s the tone of his governance and policies that are turning people off, and invigorating their chants of “let’s go Brandon.â€