What Will the Long Term Implications of COVID-19 Be?

I thought you might be interested in this passage from Walter Russell Mead’s most recent Wall Street Journal column:

Far from uniting the world, the coronavirus renationalized human life. It’s not only that most of humanity has been cooped up inside its national borders, with a handful able to travel. Vaccination has become a national matter, with your access to lifesaving shots dependent more on where you are than anything else. International efforts at vaccination have largely failed—and the resulting bitterness and feelings of alienation in poor countries is likely to leave an enduring imprint on world politics.

The World Health Organization has been a shame and a disgrace, from its initial silence over China’s coverup of early data on the outbreak through its unreasoning hostility toward Taiwan and its collusion with Beijing’s efforts to discredit the lab-leak hypothesis. The premier international health agency has failed.

Covax, the much-touted international program aimed at providing vaccines to citizens of countries too poor to purchase adequate supplies on the open market, has also fallen abysmally short. According to WHO statistics, of the 3.7 billion vaccine doses distributed around the world, less than 2% have been given in Africa.

Rather than coordinate their policies, countries have followed their interests at every turn. From China’s protective coverup of the emerging threat, to the squabbles between the U.K. and European Union over vaccine deliveries, to India’s decision to prohibit the export of vaccine doses originally intended for global distribution, leaders have consistently put their own countries (and political fortunes) ahead of promoting a unified global response.

What’s worked in the pandemic so far has been the dog everyone wants to kick: Big Pharma. Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson succeeded where the internationalists failed. Scientists in free societies working with the resources that capitalism provides have given the world hope. The WHO, Covax, the Chinese and Russian vaccines, and the “global community,” not so much.

A couple of observations. First, I wonder how those who blame the CDC’s weak performance during the pandemic on poor leadership explain its continuing weak performance and that of the World Health Organization? While I don’t disagree that leadership is a factor, I believe that blaming it entirely on leadership is naive. Regardless of who the leaders are they will continue to be run by the same bureaucrats in the same way. To me that doesn’t call for “doubling down” so much as on hedging your bets.

I would hope the lesson that would be learned is that there need to be better, clearer lines of communication between government and industry without an adversarial, conspiratorial, or condescending tone in either direction. That is a much taller order than you might think. Human nature practically guarantees one or all of the three.

I’m afraid that what our political leaders will learn is that people will put up with an awful lot when they’re frightened.

8 comments… add one
  • Grey Shambler Link

    Frightened?
    Not around here.
    I think COVID will succumb to other issues. Tribalism if the major news media gets it’s way.
    Even if the death rate doubles, people are just tired of it .

  • steve Link

    “The World Health Organization has been a shame and a disgrace, from its initial silence over China’s coverup of early data on the outbreak through its unreasoning hostility toward Taiwan and its collusion with Beijing’s efforts to discredit the lab-leak hypothesis. ”

    Again with this? WHO does not run black ops or intelligence operations. It is dependent upon what its member nations tell them and what those nations allow WHO to do. Those member nations also pay for WHO. No evidence of collusion with Beijing. Yes, they do prefer the larger China over tiny Taiwan. Lot more potential money there.

    “continuing weak performance ”

    Which would be what? They got the vaccines out quickly. If you mean their inability to convince everyone to take the vaccine that would take a miracle so you want a religious organization not a govt agency.

    The adversarial/conspiratorial came from political leaders and from certain media.

    Steve

  • steve Link
  • PD Shaw Link

    Michael Lewis’ recent book points the finger at the 1976 swine flu outbreak and the CDC mass vaccination program. Ford felt compelled to follow the experts, but then in an election year people started getting sick, the news media, including Cronkite blames the vaccine (which it later turns out wrongly). The newly-minted Carter administration fires the Director, scapegoating him for everything that went wrong, even commissioning a book, defenstrating him on the way out the door so never to return. One person died from swine flu, so it all looked like an excessively alarmist response.

    At that point, per Lewis’ sources, the CDC was hobbled by the fear of what happened to the former director and became more research-oriented. Presidents increased political oversight over its activities, no more would the Director serve in a bipartisan fashion from administration to administration.

    They had become disconnected from how the healthcare system works today. They wanted to be the makers and central interpreters of all testing, and they failed and doubled-down in their failure because that was the role they foresaw for themselves. CDC finding a role for itself amidst a pandemic.

    Bad messaging throughout. CDC’s statements about the Delta variant were not based upon any data. The data would require months to obtain. Virologist have said as much, but offered the explanation that the CDC message about masks was wrong back in May. In turn the media overhypes the non-data, so that the White House has to call out the NY Times and Washington Post for misinformation. Here we are again.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    Back in 2002, in response to 9/11 they reorganized the government to create the Department of Homeland Security.

    It not out of the imagination (in fact, it is likely), that the CDC will be reformed; split in two orgs, one to focus on infectious disease, the other on all public health matters.

    Similarly, I could see the WHO being reformed.

    As to the article — I believe the history books when they are written someday — will point that COVID-19 was merely an extreme accelerant to trends that were already in motion.

    De-globalization. Digitization. Polarization. Work from home, etc.

  • The WHO’s budget is around $9 billion. Sounds like a lot for an organization completely dependent on member nations. I could be completely dependent on the member nations for .1% of that.

  • steve Link

    The WHO budget is pretty complicated I think. That $9 billion number is for 2 years I am pretty sure. They have assessed revenue which countries have agreed to provide based on some percentage of GDP or taxes or something and then voluntary contributions with the voluntary being larger. Since WHO is so dependent on voluntary money and they no real authority over sovereign nations I dont see them ever doing anything to provoke member nations. They dont have the authority anyway.

    Will we reform WHO so that it does have the authority to interfere into the internal matters of member countries without the approval of the country? I dont think so. We wouldnt want WHO nosing around in our business.

    Steve

  • Will we reform WHO so that it does have the authority to interfere into the internal matters of member countries without the approval of the country? I dont think so.

    I agree with that assessment. I don’t think we are ready for world government. The degree of consensus is far too low. I would say that globalization ain’t what it was cracked up to be.

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