What will the fate of the “infrastructure bill” be?
- Speaker Pelosi will successfully hold her party together and both the “infrastructure bill” and the $3.5 trillion “human infrastructure bill” will pass and be enacted into law in reconciliation.
- They’ll pass the House but will fail in the Senate for one reason or another.
- The “infrastructure bill” will pass the House and will be enacted into law.
- The “infrastructure bill” will pass the House with some but not all of the provisions of the “human infrastructure” bill and be enacted into law in reconciliation.
- Neither bill will pass the House.
I have no idea what will happen—it could be any of them. I hope it will be C (which I think is already excessive). My gut tells me D but it could even be A. Or E.
The Infrastructure Bill is absurdly named (like so many bills sponsored by the Dems), in that less than 10% actually is being spent for real infrastructure. The rest is directed at dem pet projects and social programs that Dems have supported for years. In fact, many are simply describing this Bill of goodies as nothing more than “a sinkhole of spending.â€
With the $ 3.5 billion Human Infrastructure Bill, lined up behind the original one, it will be in the hands of a sensibly-minded Congress to determine how far they are willing to go in layering more unsustainable debt onto this county. Since sensibly-minded people are few and far between in the current Congress, I think D is the most probable outcome.
They’d better hurry up and get it passed to clear their calendar as calls for a fourth stimulus are already being heard.
Needs are estimated at a recurring $2,000./ month with automatic unemployment payment extensions as millions of Americans still writhe fearfully under the specter of future economic insecurity.
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/07/30/stimulus-check-update-fourth-payment-covid/
Hence my quotation marks.
One quibble with “D” is I believe how reconciliation works.
The Senate has passed the “instructions” for reconciliation of the “human infrastructure” bill which don’t include the “infrastructure bill” (since “infrastructure” was a separate bill). Unless the House issues radically different “instructions” that include the infrastructure bill and rolls over the Senate; the Senate instructions will prevent the two bills from being merged as it is out of scope for reconciliation and subject to filibuster.
That isn’t to say Pelosi won’t tie the two bills together as tightly as possible — I believe the House could craft a rule that final passage of “infrastructure bill” requires passage of the “human infrastructure bill”.
I believe “A” is most likely now — but with “human infrastructure” closer to 3 trillion and without some of non-budget wishlist (like immigration reform).
My response to that is “it depends”. What does it depend on? How the Senate parliamentarian rules; existing Senate rules, e.g. the “Byrd rule”, other things. That’s among the reasons I phrased B as I did.
I think that’s right. I also think that could doom both bills. There is very little room for error, little clearance in either the House or the Senate.
On the House side, Pelosi’s job should get easier soon.
Based on the events of the last few weeks, many Democratic House members (esp on the moderate side) could conclude that post Nov 2022 won’t be enjoyable and announce they won’t run for reelection. Once they are freed from reelection and start angling for sinecures — Pelosi should have an easier time corralling her caucus.
On the Senate side, Democrats have a much wider margin then it appears. There are 4 Democratic Senators from swing States (NV, AZ, GA, NH) while 8 Republican Senate seats that are vulnerable (AK, IA, WI, OH, PA, NC, FL, MO). Not to mention there is a legit chance that Murkowski switches parties before this Congress is over.