Quite a few people are speculating on the 1-on-1 between President Trump and Russian President Putin that starts tomorrow. Rather than speculating or linking to the speculations of others, let’s weigh in ourselves.
What will be the outcome of tomorrow’s meeting?
- Trump will completely “cave in” to Putin
- Not much
- Not much but President Trump will declare it a complete victory
- Trump and Putin will agree to divide Ukraine
- Putin will propose “geopolitical armistice” (basically, spheres of influence) and Trump won’t reject it outright
- Trump and Putin will agree to an end to the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to Ukraine
- Trump and Putin will agree to an end to the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to Russia (pretty much the same as A or C above)
- Trump and Putin will agree to an end to the war in Ukraine on terms somewhere in between favorable to Ukraine and favorable to Russia
- Something else
I think the most likely outcome is C. I think that E is an outside possibility. I think that H would put Zelensky in a bind.
Please weigh in with your prediction in comments.
Possibly more interesting might be the least likely outcome. I think that F is least likely.
C – For the record, I came to that conclusion before I saw your answer.
C. Wouldn’t F also put Putin in a difficult position or is it so unlikely not worth considering or does Putin have such a strong hold he can do whatever he wants?
Steve
Will also go with C, with B second and E third.
E- With Putin talking about a new arms treaty, I pick E.
I’m on Team Nothing Ever Happens, but Trump ALWAYS declares victory. So C.
F has to be the least likely.
There will be no settlement on Ukraine, and most likely Trump will walk away from that problem, leave it for the Europeans.
There are, however, many other issues, including renewal of the nuclear weapons treaties, return to normal foreign relations (especially the property issue), sanctions, bilateral trade, and cooperation in the Arctic.
With respect to trade, the US no longer enriches uranium (nor makes tritium), and it imports fuel rods and diesel (and fertilizer?) from Russia. After a long hiatus, the US likely lacks the expertise to design and build commercial nuclear power reactors, but both Russia and China regularly do so.
So if anything is accomplished, it will be in the areas of bilateral trade and bilateral diplomacy. Another summit will likely be held in Russia this year, and bilateral summits may become a regular event. Hope so, anyway.
E, and B. Trump already indicated it’s Ukrainians who shall decide on territorial concessions and Zelensky made it clear none will be made.
While Putin wants spheres of influence and Trump isn’t closed to the idea they are worlds apart on where the lines should be. Putin wants US forces back to 1989 lines; Trump in his first term wanted to move forces East from Germany to Poland.
They may spin something about restarting arms treaty negotiations but I doubt it goes very far.
In the end, negotiations are dictated by what is happening on the battleground. The Russians won’t budge on their terms until the Ukrainians can prove on the battlefield they can fight the Russians to a draw. The Ukrainians seem unlikely to concede to Russian terms until their army collapses.
Team Nothing Ever Happens ftw!