I used to do annual prediction posts but I’ve given that up so I’ll ask you. What do you expect to happen in 2023?
Some reasonable guesses:
- On January 2, 2024 the war in Ukraine will continue to grind on.
- At best: economic malaise; at worst: recesssion.
- Another major conflict somewhere in the world that we’re up to our hips in.
- Government by edict (“executive order”).
Anything else?
Global warming will, at last, drive the planet to the edge of extinction. Just as it has every 5 years for the last 60.
I believe its been in the press………
The Russo-Ukrainian war will end with an outright victory by Russia. Russia will dictate terms. The result will be an unraveling of NATO.
I don’t quite see how that can occur as long as NATO keeps furnishing the Ukrainians with weapons. Short of exterminating the Ukrainians that is.
Some random ones.
1. India will become the most populous nation on earth
2. Either bonds or stocks (but not necessarily both) will do better in 2023 then 2022. 2022 was unprecedented for a 15-20% drop in both bonds and stocks.
3. Life expectancy in the US will fall again
4. The Republican Party civil war / dysfunction will be in full display
5. There will be another notorious cyber security incident
1. China will become more aggressive towards Taiwan.
2. The U.S. economy will be flat.
3. Digital currency, transhumanism, reserve currency fallibility will be under more discussion and threatening to becoming a reality rather than an obscure possibility..
4. Democrats and Republicans will have lots of struggle sessions, but little will get done in a positive way.
5. COVID 19 vaccination mania will experience some well deserved skepticism and law suits. The hidden adverse and/or fatal side effects of this experimental vaccine will become too noticeable to gaslight the public any further that it is “safe and effective.†Rasmussen’s new poll is showing a stunning 28% of people personally know someone who died from the vaccine. This extrapolates to 70 million people. Of course the media and pharmaceutical industry will try to ignore, under report or scoff at this poll, as well as medical institutions who have intimated and quashed any physician debate criticizing it’s efficacy or safety. But, that will not stop the ethical pursuit of those who have tried to pull this dangerous vaccine off the market, almost from the very beginning of it’s emergence on the market via an EUA.
to add too:
The long grind in Ukraine slowly leads to disenchantment
A take down of a domestic terrorist cell resulting in the death or maiming of a armed 12 year old
Promising careers ruined by serving meat at a BBQ, failing to over FTM transgenders PSA tests, and criticism of the Kings new wardrobe.
A scuffle (so they say) amongst Rs in the House, everyone knows doors come out of nowhere.
I don’t have any big predictions this year.
For Ukraine, there is too much uncertainty, but it’s unlikely either side will win decisively absent some black swan.
For the economy, I’m planning for the worst (a bad recession) and hoping for the best (a mild recession). I think a bad recession is more likely.
Everything else is ancillary or won’t change significantly absent something emergent or unpredictable happening.
The information available is so propagandized it’s hard to know what’s actually happening.
IMO what’s presently restraining the Russians is the Russian pretension to being the protectors of all Slavs. Giving that up would be a bitter pill to swallow—I don’t think they’ll do it. If they do they won’t just be trying to “wreck” Ukraine, they’ll be trying to exterminate the Ukrainians. Believe it or not right now they’re exercising restraint. I think they’re trying to reduce Ukrainian morale.
I think Russia’s problems are more fundamental – They wasted their best troops on a flawed initial invasion, they were not prepared or organized for this type of war, and correcting course to rebuild the force and – just as important – supply that force with enough material for offensive operations will take time and significant investment. Russia currently doesn’t have the fielded and trained manpower, artillery, or many of the enabling capabilities for decisive offensives. But they probably have enough capacity to hold back Ukraine. IMO, this explains their current strategy of digging in and relying on attrition which definitionally comes with a long time horizon.
And if there is a big recession next year here and in Europe, will governments be able to keep Ukraine supplied, especially considering that our current defense production can’t meet Ukraine’s needs? That’s the big unknown IMO.
I didn’t mean to suggest that restraint was Russia’s only problem. The Russians have made flawed assumption after flawed assumption.
But we shouldn’t lose track of the reality that completely exterminating the Ukrainians is within the Russians’ capability. Even without using nuclear weapons.
I think that meager as their support has been to date our European “allies” will continue to reduce their support for Ukraine. Think of it as “Cheshire cat support”—it will decrease until nothing is left but the smile.
As demonstrated n the science literature climate change will continue along at its same low rate. Costs for renewables will keep decreasing and we will see a significant breakthrough in one of the many battery technologies.
No big changes in Ukraine/Russia except Russia accelerates attacking civilians.
Economy flat or mild recession
China has a crackdown on its dissidents/protestors
More crazy conspiracy theories
Congress does nothing except have fake investigations and maybe an impeachment try. 50% odds they try to break the Benghazi record of 8 investigations of the same thing.
Germany surprises everyone at how fast they manage to find alternate energy sources.
Violent protests in Brazil
Steve
“But we shouldn’t lose track of the reality that completely exterminating the Ukrainians is within the Russians’ capability. Even without using nuclear weapons.”
I do not think that is the case at all. Russia does not currently have the firepower or organization to launch a significant offensive, much less the ability to exterminate Ukraine (absent nukes). Russian capabilities are actually limited and have diminished significantly over the last year.
“I think that meager as their support has been to date our European “allies†will continue to reduce their support for Ukraine. Think of it as “Cheshire cat supportâ€â€”it will decrease until nothing is left but the smile.”
Europe has given a lot of money in aid and loans, but not much in military capabilities. It’s important to note that a few countries have done quite a lot in terms of military support, but they are small countries.
Germany now says that they might get their military spending above 2% of GDP in 2025. So much for their promises earlier this year. Regardless, they have very little production capacity, as do most European countries. It’s an open question whether the combined defense industries of the US and Europe can keep Ukraine fully supplied. Up to this point, we’ve been supplying them from stockpiles.
The Russians have a significant number of conventional MRBMs which have not been used against Ukraine so far.
Pretty expensive and a payload/effect not that much larger than a CM.
Steve
Without nuke warheads, MRBM’s are just very expensive long-range artillery. The payloads are around 4,000-6,000 pounds – sounds like a lot, but it’s less than a single strike aircraft, or it’s the very rough equivalent of around 50 standard 155mm artillery shells. And the Russians are reportedly firing a few thousand of those per week.