There’s a pretty good analysis of the issues the midterm elections will turn on by A. B. Stoddard at RealClearPolitics which I commend to your attention. The issues include immigration, domestic terrorism, and health care just to name a few. Here’s a snippet:
The separation of families was a liability for the GOP, but the caravan was midterm manna for Trump. It began at just the right time for him to tell Americans watching hordes of people traveling from Honduras and Guatemala that criminal elements, including various and sundry “Middle Easterners,†were intent upon invading the homeland. More than 5,000 active military personnel are now deployed to convince voters something is being done, and this number could stretch, Trump says, to 15,000 or more. Though no laws have been changed, and no new restrictions on asylum have been enacted, what is likely is that when the dwindled caravan arrives, its entry will surely be more organized and less dysfunctional with active duty troops on hand.
Read the whole thing. Her conclusion, meekly enough, is that it’s hard to tell what will actually happen.
Frankly, I doubt that most of the House elections or for governor will be on national issues and I’ll still be skeptical even when the major media outlets declaim that the election was a referendum on Trump, about health care, or about immigration. All politics remains local and we don’t conduct national referenda. The winners are likely either to be incumbents or the candidate best able to convince voters of their bona fides or both.
As always, “It’s the economy, stupid”.
My first prediction. Turnout for this midterms will be higher then 2010, 2006 midterms by whatever measure of turnout chosen.
or more bluntly, “are you better off?”
My own prediction some one will be upset, reports of electoral perfidy will reach an all time high and lastly the sun rises, the moon sets, Cthulhu lies dreaming.
That’s a tough one, Dave. All politics may be local, but sometimes national issues pertain locally.
Health care seems to be one of those, and seems to break for the Democrats.
Immigration may not matter as much in MN as TX, even if it should. But it appears to be a national/local issue and break for Republicans.
Other than that, free beer seems to be as prevalent as ever.
And so that leaves us with……………..I dunno.
I notice Russia has been a non-existent factor in campaigning, after two years of homophobic obsession.
There are several things going on there, Ben. First, as long as Americans aren’t getting killed, Americans don’t care about foreign policy. Second, the majority of the fulmination about Russia was political posturing all along. Is there something to be concerned about? Yes. Were the genuine concerns the source of the hysteria? No. The hysteria was entirely about covering the DNC’s collective ass, a chore which has apparently been accomplished successfully.
If the House goes Dem then, yes, the chore is probably accomplished. I don’t know what the definition of “DNC’s collective” is, but a look at the players and their actions indicate this goes to HRC, and because of the high level knowledge in the DoJ, by definition the Obama Administration. This has been a save Obama’s reputation, at any cost, as much as anything else.
They never imagined HRC would lose.
Here in Colorado, Trump is not a big factor in any of the races I’ve seen – which is to say that Trump is being used in very safe ways by candidates.
The vast majority of the advertising here is on various ballot measures, I see few from candidates or their supporting PACs.