You might find this piece by Anastasia Kapetas at The Strategest, speculating about what will happen after the Taliban have regained control of Afghanistan, which largely consists of quotes from David Kilcullen whom I’ve quoted here before, interesting. The author makes three points:
- The Taliban are better-prepared to govern the country than they were 20 years ago (!) but not much
- The Pakistanis are pretty happy with the situation—the Taliban are their guys, they’ve been supporting them for years
- The Chinese are hand in glove with the Taliban as well
Here’s a telling quote from that last section:
‘It’s clear that China has anointed the Taliban as Afghanistan’s next rulers,’ says Kilcullen, pointing to the public meeting in July between China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Mullah Barader, the head of the Taliban political committee.
But at the most recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting, also in July, Wang signalled that China’s support might be contingent on the Taliban helping counter Uyghur groups, IS-K and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.
More broadly, China is intent on preserving its resource investments in Afghanistan. And although its Belt and Road Initiative doesn’t encompass Afghanistan, it is an important transit route across Central Asia to other nations like Iran, with which China has just inked a 25-year economic and security agreement.
But can the Taliban be a trusted partner for Beijing?
Kilcullen says many Uyghur militants who were fighting in Syria have gone back to Afghanistan. ‘So how the Taliban treats those groups will an indicator. Will they hand them over to China, or keep them in reserve for leverage?’
As I’ve said before I’m sort of two degrees of separation from Dr. Kilkullen. I’ve never met him personally but his godmother is an old friend of mine.
