What does John Kerry need to do to win the rapidly approaching election?
A surprising black `bump’ for Bush
Published October 20, 2004
WASHINGTON — Could President Bush receive a surprisingly large black turnout on Election Day? Considering recent history, the idea sounds about as likely as pop star Michael Jackson receiving a Man of the Year Award from the Children’s Defense Fund. But elections can produce unexpected results. That’s why we hold them.
This week I found myself blinking my eyes in disbelief over two major polls that showed a big bump for Bush among likely black voters.
A New York Times poll released Tuesday showed that among likely voters, 47 percent support Bush, 45 percent are for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.
But in the race breakdown, the Bush-Cheney ticket is buoyed by an amazing 17 percent from African-Americans. (Kerry receives 76 percent of the black voters and Nader only 1 percent.)
Although 17 percent is still less than one in five, it is more than twice the tiny 8 percent turnout that the Bush-Cheney ticket received in the 2000 election.
Also on Tuesday, a poll with a much larger sample of black voters was released by the Washington-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a leading think tank on black-oriented issues. It showed a very similar African-American boost for the Bush-Cheney ticket: 18 percent versus 69 for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader.
I was in North Carolina this weekend covering the Richard Burr campaign. While in Wayne County, a gent by the name of Joe Daugherty, who is on the local board of elections mentioned that in the first two days of early voting, 2,250 people showed up at the polls. In Wayne County, 33% of the registration is Republican. But 49% of those participating in the early voting were Republican. Daugherty too this to mean that the GOP side is more motivated.
Worse for Kerry, 30% of registered voters in Wayne County are African-American. According to Daugherty, only 250 African-Americans had voted, or 11%. Looks like Kerry isn’t getting that all-important black vote fired up.
Hat tip: Vodkapundit.
However misappropriated the word “pimped” is, in the case of both modern and latter-day vernacular, the word is entirely appropriate for the cause of the pulpit.
When a presidential election year rolls around, groups that may or may not have been important during those last three years, suddenly become the object of the vultures’ affection. This year, the head vulture is John Kerry.
Like clockwork, the political vultures, local ones included, come out dressed in navy blue suits, with carefully chosen power ties (pearls for the ladies), playing religious games for the sake of earning more votes.
The “black church” specifically, has become a ho. It’s abused, mis-treated, used, and then tossed to the side until the next election.
There has been much talk about the importance of “faith” in this election. In the 2000 election, a survey of voters showed that 63% of those who attended church more than once a week voted for Bush, compared to 37% who voted for Al Gore.
This year, polls are showing that the “black vote” has slipped significantly for Kerry. Whereas Gore captured 90% of black voters, reportedly, Kerry may only have around 73%. Make no mistake about it, given the socially conservative nature of the black community, “black churches” especially tend to be opposed to abortion rights and same-sex marriage, which are among a few hot issues in this year’s election.
Hat tip: Instapundit.
WATERLOO, Iowa (AP) — Former President Clinton will appear with Sen. John Kerry at a lunchtime rally in Philadelphia Monday in what Democrats hope will be a boost to the presidential ticket in a crucial battleground state.
The two-term former president also will campaign separately for the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Lockhart, an adviser to Kerry and former Clinton press secretary, said Wednesday.
Clinton, who is recovering from heart surgery, has agreed to the appearance for his fellow Democrat, who is locked in a tight race against President Bush.
Kerry needs to get out the African American vote. The African American vote is a sizeable proportion of the Democratic base and without a substantial turnout by African Americans not only will Mr. Kerry have problems with the swing states, he could have problems in some of the states that Gore carried in 2000.
But Mr. Kerry doesn’t have the appeal for and rapport with the African American community that Bill Clinton has. Whether this is because of many African Americans are socially quite conservative or Mr. Kerry’s Eastern patrician air, or some other reason, I just can’t say. And none of Mr. Kerry’s other surrogates seem to be able to get the job done.
Clinton’s health issues may prove to be a serious problem for Mr. Kerry’s campaign.
