I mentioned some of my assumptions in my last post. Here’s another one. The pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968 are still in progress, just at lowered intensity. My assumption is that the same will be true of COVID-19. In a column at Bloomberg Narayana Kocherlakota, formerly a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, urges policymakers to plan for that possibility:
So far, the response to the coronavirus pandemic has operated on the assumption that the worst will be over within a year or so. But what if the malaise lasts much longer? It’s a scenario that policy makers must recognize and prepare for.
Breathless media constantly repeat that a vaccine might be widely available by next spring. But even spring of 2023 would be the fastest in medical history, and there’s no guarantee of that. Maybe antibodies will turn out to confer little or no protection from infection, as is true for some viruses. In that case, developing a vaccine would be a lot harder, and the concept of “herd immunity†would be meaningless. Almost everyone would remain susceptible, whether or not they’d had it in the past.
So a very long battle with Covid-19 seems entirely possible – while it seems nearly impossible that the U.S. and much of the world can follow New Zealand’s lead and almost eliminate the disease. A longer-term crisis would have very different implications for the economy. Sectors that are expected to bounce back – such as tourism – could be out for good. Sectors that have seen a boost – such as streaming services – could be permanent winners.
I guess I also assume that not everybody is equally susceptible to the virus and not simply because of differences in age or pre-existing conditions. Just because they’re less susceptible for one reason or another.
I think that even if COVID-19 is not seasonal and has a higher case mortality rate than the seasonal flu, it’s something we need to get used to. I don’t think that political leaders can get their minds around that. They’d better start doing so quickly.
Insurance actuaries will have to sharpen their pencils.
I think we can safely bet there won’t be a vaccine, there isn’t one for the common cold, either, another coronavirus. So, we either open up and take the risks, or we settle into permanent economic depression. Depressions kill people, too.
So far this has been a serious epidemic, but on a deaths per 100,000 people basis there have been several more serious in recent history, and some much more serious over the last 100 years or so. Go over to Briggs stat blog:
https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/
The mystery is why the panic this time. Neil Ferguson’s asinine and grotesquely wrong model (2,200,000 deaths in US alone) is partly to blame. And Ferguson is a typical headline-grubbing, irresponsible, narcissistic academic scientist. The are hundreds like him at every major university. Vox Day’s opinions about science and scientists are sound.
But every two-bit, sociopathic, totalitarian in office in every country and state, from mayors to presidents, jumped at the chance to impose their will on people. They are wallowing in the joy of making us grovel. This is what the Second Amendment was all about.
What we are seeing is a trial run at eliminating Constitutional government in this country. Your Bill of Rights was just nullified. It will never come back fully. Every new pseudo-crisis will click the ratchet again.
The Greeks thought democracies always devolved into tyrannies. They were right.
Some famous quote about people who will trade freedom for safety deserving neither?
Presenting fear is a media opportunity.
Offering safety is a political opportunity.
Evidence: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-urges-trump-to-lower-white-house-flag-to-honor-coronavirus-victims
It’s not so much of a mystery. Those of us who grew up in a world without vaccines for what we used to consider ordinary childhood diseases, the flu, and others, who had the threat of nuclear attack hanging over our heads all of the time, and the likelihood of being drafted into the military learned to accept that risks to life and limb were normal, expected. I spent the first ten years of my life in a world a little like the one depicted in the movie The Warriors. I had to fight my way home from school a couple of times a week. Life is easier now for most of us.
“Neil Ferguson’s asinine and grotesquely wrong model (2,200,000 deaths in US alone)”
Number 2 on my list for Lie fo the Year. Number 1 being Trump’s Anyone who wants a test can have one.
Steve
For perspective and a better understanding of pandemics in general, I recommend the book “The Great Influenza“ by John M. Barry. The book covers the advent of modern (i.e. scientific) medicine and the influenza pandemic of 1918 which continued on in a less virulent form until 1920.
The 1918 pandemic is somewhat conservatively estimated to have killed 50 Million people worldwide.
While many scientists worked on and developed vaccines for the 1918 pandemic, none were proven to hit the underlying virus. No vaccine specific to that virus was ever developed as the urgency diminished after the virus ran its course. Vaccines targeted at bacteria causing pneumonia, a secondary fatal condition caused by the virus, were helpful in some cases.
Like the current coronavirus, the 1918 Influenza was highly contagious, but lethal in a minority of cases. Those most vulnerable to succumbing to the 1918 Influenza were young adults rather than older adults or young children.
The cities hardest hit by the 1918 Influenza were those which ignored warnings about the spread of the disease and thus failed to take measures to curtail public interaction and otherwise prepare for a large influx of sick patients. In 1918, Philadelphia was particularly hard hit as it, and the press, ignored warnings and held a large war-bond parade right at the beginning of its epidemic. NYC experienced many of the same consequences including overcrowded hospitals, insufficient number of medical personnel and supplies, and bodies stacked in make-shift morgues and funeral homes.
The 1918 Influenza came in two large waives. The first waive in March/April that spread through military installations and then to Europe as our troops were sent over to fight WWI. The second waive, with the highest number of deaths and the widest spread, came in late September and October.
I agree that a vaccine, if one can be developed, will not be a panacea for this or any future virus that may come along. Dr. Fauci is correct when he said the virus is not going to disappear any time soon. It is possible, perhaps probable, that a new round of coronavirus outbreaks will occur this fall. We need to be prepared for that possibility and accept that a new stay at home order may need to be re-implemented.
In the meantime, we should focus on the development of treatment therapies for those who contract a more serious case of the virus and the protection of those at risk because of their age, the presence of disease (co-morbidities), and other factors.
It is hard to quantify the adverse economic impact attributable to the 1918 Influenza as its peak occurred around the end of WWI. The economy did bounce back as the threat of the virus faded away.
Steve: Did Trump’s statement tank the economy? Put most of the country into shut down? Destroy how knows how many small businesses and literally burn up millions of people’s life savings? Turned tens of thousands of people into Stasi wannabes? Ferguson’s lie was a hell of a lot more consequential, so I would put it at number one by a light year.
BTW, I hope the case load is lightening quickly for you and that your hospitals will start operating normally and be able to clear up the backlog of non-emergencies quickly and easily. Our political differences are minor compared to the hell you went through.
Perhaps this is a milepost in a journey back to the pre-antibiotics / vaccine era.
People managed to control diseases then; using different means. There was tourism then.
” Ferguson’s lie ”
Did you read what he wrote? Of course not. Ferguson did not lie. You guys are lying about what he said.
We expect to be back to normal staffing in 2-3 weeks. Have already started increasing. Each hospital CEO wants to do it a bit differently, just to make my life difficult.
Steve
OT- One of the best posts I have seen on the performance of the CDC. They have been wrong or just not helpful during much of this pandemic. This is not like their past performance.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/we-need-the-real-cdc-back-and-we-need-it-now/
Steve
Yes; the CDC has been a disappointment.
Their recommendations are probably discussed in the corona task force.
But it would be nice to see what their models are; also if their recommendations include any measures that have not been implemented.
In particular, the CDC continued to insist that asymptomatic people could not be infectious way past the point it was obvious that was wrong. One would expect the CDC to be data driven and to take the position that it is trying to protect people during a health crisis. Instead they clung to a belief that allowed for a more minimal and slower response. I have to think that this was leadership driven.
I see at least two possibilities on that front. The current head of the CDC had no prior experience in public health. That is unusual in that position. He is supposedly a decent virologist, though there is concern that he had been a sloppy scientist, but mostly without a public health background there may not have been any sense of urgency on his part. Second, in this administration telling the POTUS what he does not want to hear seems to mean you will be out of a job. If you are going to tell I’m what he doesnt want to hear, you have to be 100% sure, not 98% so that delayed things. Regardless, it is unlikely that the entire CDC suddenly changed. This has to be a leadership issue.
Steve
Or the CDC turned out to be an emperor with no clothes.
The investigation on testing issues is quite devastating — lab contamination and lab mismanagement. Even worse; the CDC could not self diagnose the issue.
Leaders and management are the starting point in fixing things. But knowing organizational culture; the rot is beyond just the leader; the whole culture is broken (and for some time) to have such fundamental failures.
The rough equivalent in the private sector is Boeing with the 737 Max.
Tars –
Furgusons paper can be summarized as follows: I have no idea how many might die, but I’ll make some wild assed assumptions and gussy them up with fancy statistics. Let’s see, 2.2MM ought to get their attention. Now, I’ll tell them if they crawl up into the fetal position the number will be cut in half, maybe more.
Steve relies on the resultant range to claim people are lying about Ferguson. He conveniently forgets that the 2.2MM stat was designed to induce panic and was the very thing government relied on to justify draconian measures. Which is the criticism of this character.
Also quickly forgotten are the absence of ventilator shortages. The notions of body bags piling up everywhere and other dire predictions.
More than anything, here in the US this has been an event dominated by tri-state NY metro. I suspect that’s due mostly to some mix of population density, refusal to adopt common sense practices and, not the least by far, the absolute boneheadedness of the NY and NJ governors in allowing spreaders into nursing homes. That last one has been estimated to have caused 25-30% of all the NY metro deaths.
As Bob points out, the bureaucrats and academics are in their glory, and Trump made a terrible error in getting sucked in by them. But you can see the temptation due to politics. They are blaming him as if he were Chinese. Media propaganda is a powerful tool.
I think that’s too limited a criticism. I think that Trump is a big picture guy and a lousy manager. He didn’t have a deep enough understanding of the minutiae of the government, the bureaucracy, and the law to do an effective job.
There are two basically different strategies for doing an effective job as president. Either you can recruit quality help, set the objectives, and let them do their jobs (Ike’s “staff model”) or you can micromanage everything yourself (Carter and Clinton’s “policy wonk” approach). Because of his limitations as a manager and his lack of understanding, Trump hasn’t been able to do either and that limits his effectiveness.
Without strong effective staff leadership, the bureaucracy just takes over. The CDC’s actions constitute a case in point. Also consider the FBI’s and the State Department’s counter-insurgencies.