In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal Seth Cropsey declaims that war between Israel and Iran is inevitable:
Israel faces a strategic choice with regard to Iran—war now or war later. The political conditions for war now are poor. The strategic conditions later will only grow worse.
Iran’s goal is to destroy Israel as a uniquely Jewish state through a strategy of attrition. The mullahs hope to bind Israel in a series of conflicts and pressure it from multiple angles while using diplomacy and media manipulation to prolong the conflict. Tehran understands the potency of Israel’s military, which has adapted well to difficult urban and subterranean combat conditions in Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces field formidable air, artillery and armored units that, if unleashed in the north, would threaten the existence of Hezbollah, Iran’s most capable proxy. The Iranian deterrence strategy couples pressure on the U.S. with the threat of large-scale rocket and missile attacks against critical Israeli infrastructure.
Hamas is the most apparent element of Iran’s strategy. Iran wants the terrorist organization not only to maintain control of Gaza but to catapult itself into control of the Palestinian movement. The best way to do that is to compel the Israelis to accept a cosmetically appealing “peace agreement” involving the Arab states that allows Hamas to integrate into the Palestinian Authority and co-opt its necrotic rival, Fatah. The West Bank could then become another axis of pressure on Israel.
Here’s my hypothetical. If Iran attacks Israel, I think we should provide assistance to Israel similar to the aid we are providing to Ukraine and for the same reasons.
But what if Israel attacks Iran? What should we do then?
It would be nice if terms were defined. Historically, war means taking and holding territory by lots of killing and destruction. I have no idea of how either would accomplish this.
Iran is attacking Israel using Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel attacks Iran through espionage, assassinations, and cyberattacks. Israel could use missiles, but Iran is huge. For a specific location, ballistic missiles might, but for real damage, they would need nuclear tipped missiles.
NEWSFLASH: Jets need to be refueled and air-tankers need to be protected.
This fantasy is the result of too much TV and movies. Put down the iPhone and pick up a history or science book, but not the one written by the political pundit you have been reading.
That’s not entirely true. Augustine, the first to write about what’s now called “just war theory”, included punitive raids in his consideration of war, for example.
Not enough interest to read the article. How is this war going to work? Neither country has much of a navy and dont see moving troops overland very viable. I guess you could have an aerial war but Israel doesnt have modern, reliable tankers. As far as I can remember neither has long range bombers. Iran hasS-300s courtesy of Russia. Unclear if they ever got any S-400s.
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/aerial-refueling-in-the-israel-air-and-space-force/
Steve
I think real war is going to happen between Israel and Hezbollah.
Because of Hezbollah constant low level warfare, its made parts of Northern Israel uninhabitable; that’s not a tolerable condition for Israel.
But it won’t resolve the problem because Hezbollah will just come back after the conflict unless Israel occupies southern Lebanon, and there’s a reason Israel left Lebanon almost 20 years ago.
But it leaves a question, is war between Israel and Hezbollah the same as war between Israel and Iran. In some ways its like asking is war between Russia and Ukraine the same as war between Russia and NATO?