At Marketwatch Ed Yardeni asks six questions:
- What if Trump’s trade war leads to less protectionism and more global prosperity?
- What if Trump’s deregulation unchains the animal spirits of businesses?
- What if jobs do come back to the U.S.?
- What if the pace of technological innovation is increasing, disrupting business models in ways that keep a lid on inflation and finally boosts productivity?
- What if the growth of distressed asset funds has created a shock absorber in the capital markets, reducing the severity of credit crunches?
- What if baby boomers downsize and millennials remain minimalists?
As of this moment it’s impossible to answer any of those questions with confidence on anything other than an a priori basis but let’s play along. What if all of those things actually happen?
I think it will be the Democratic leadership’s worst nightmare.
Personally, I think it’s unlikely that all six of those will happen. For example, I think that #6 is in direct conflict with #2. And the overwhelming likelihood is that health care will continue to get more expensive and grow while business sectors concerned with making stuff will shrink. That in turn will lead to greater income inequality. If income inequality becomes severe enough there will be demands for somebody to do something even if it’s something that’s non-productive.
The evidence to date shows that #1 happening even as the trade deficit widens, and domestic production falls. Is that what he means by “less protectionism”?
#6 Boomers aren’t going to abandon the defining rebellion of their generation against their parents, namely self-realization through material acquisition.
#2 isn’t happening. Trump’s cronies are simply rewriting regulations to push the burdens onto households, communities and governments.
#3 shows no signs of happening either. No one thinks Trump will be around long enough for his trade policies to be sustained.
#4 What if carrots taste like olives?
#5 sounds way too much like the end-of-the-business cycle thinking we saw before the GFC.
#6
That’s a pretty short list of “what ifs” compared to all the possibles. A lot of it is too speculative to be useful.
7. What if global warming really is a hoax, and we are just experiencing normal variations in weather?
Then the world will end up being a much nicer place in 20-50 years than most of us have any right to think it will, and we will all be happy.
That’s pretty much the answer to all there questions, except for the carrots tasting like olives.
OK, 8, what if Democrats win the house, press for impeachment. The new book out bashing Trump, by what’s his name, gains traction, but the economy continues to improve. Why wouldn’t Trump be re-elected?
Those of us accused of supporting Trump, are actually supporting ourselves, as he’s the only one speaking TO us.
“That in turn will lead to greater income inequality. If income inequality becomes severe enough there will be demands for somebody to do something even if it’s something that’s non-productive.” ~ Dave Schuler
“The kingdoms of experience
In the precious winds they rot
While paupers change possessions
Each one wishing for what the other has got
And the princess and the prince
Discuss what’s real and what is not
It doesn’t matter inside the Gates of Eden” ~ Bob Dylan
When people say jobs are coming back, they don’t mean a modern job. They’re referring to mythical jobs from the 50s and 60s, which are not going to come back. Short of America starting a global war and then emerging with its civilian population, infrastructure, and New Deal-ish ideology largely unscathed, it won’t happen. Things might be marginally better via propaganda and numbers, but that’s the same argument that Hillary Clinton and Obama put out there.
What is business going to do if unleashed? Look at Theranos, a total hoax that supposedly was going to reinvent medicine and reduce costs, blah blah blah etc etc. Markets threw money at an obvious fraud. There’s no there there.
1) You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city.[4]
The Spartan ephors again replied with a single word:
If.[5]
2) IF wishes were horses beggars would ride.
3) All the thoughts I’d be thinkin’
I could be another Lincoln
IF I only had a brain.
(The Spartans were the best!)
Steve