In this post unless I specify otherwise “Russian” refers to ethnic Russians, “Ukrainian” refers to ethnic Ukrainians, etc.
Having devoted a considerable amount of time studying the language, history, and culture of Russia, I would suggest that Russians are illiberal and predisposed to autocracy. I think that Ukrainians are basically Polonized Russians. There are some differences but they are differences in detail.
I think we should support the Ukrainians in their conflict against the Russians (who were wrong to invade Ukraine) and use whatever influence that gives us with the Ukrainians to encourage them to settle for something less than the pre-2014 borders. The territory of Ukraine is not and never has been a nation-state in the sense of a country consisting of a single ethnicity. It has always been multi-ethnic and multi-cultural.
Immediately following the Maidan Revolution of 2014 the new government signalled its objective of turning Ukraine into a nation-state. Although I think we should support the Ukrainians in their fight against the Russians I think we should be cautious about supporting the Ukrainians’ goals since they are not ours.
8% of the population of Crimea was Ukrainian. 90% were Russians or Tatars. The population of Donetsk Oblast was split roughly evenly between Russians and Ukrainians. The population of Luhansk Oblast was about 40% Russians and 50% Ukrainians. I say “was” because we have next to no idea what their population demographics are now. IMO what makes the most sense is for Crimea to federate with Russia while Donetsk and Luhansk be granted substantial autonomy.
Your position made sense in post 2014, pre 2022, its awfully similar to the Minsk accords. The problem is events have made it unrealistic, an egg can’t be unscrambled so to speak.
The multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, multi-lingual nature of Ukraine that was its promise in 1991 is gone. I don’t see how Ukraine gains sovereignty (however loose) over the separatist and then Russian annexed parts of Donetsk / Luhansk without massive ethnic cleansing.
Sadly, I think this war will result in a situation that the world faced in Versailles in 1919; with the collapse of (Ottoman, Russian, Austrian, German) empires, trying to fashion a stable solution but failing because of the explosive forces unleashed.
My sense is that those who demand a return to the pre-2014 borders are objectively pro-ethnic cleansing.
I think that’s a decent summary, but I am much less certain about how things should end. When empires break up, borders are often messy and contested and can remain so for generations. With no natural boundary in terms of ethnicity or geography, I doubt there will be any kind of permanent disposition of borders in my lifetime.
I can fathom no reason for Ukraine to offer up Crimea when it’s not a negotiable consideration for Putin in the first place. In fact, I don’t expect warring parties to be making public concessions at all.
I also seriously doubt that Putin believes Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, are negotiable. The Russian parliament has annexed them, it’s Russian territory from their perspective just like Crimea. Nobody may want to live there, but Putin wants everyone to think Ukraine isn’t real in the first place.
This war started when the US organized a coup d’etat that removed the legitimate, democratically elected government and installed the current Nazi junta. The US has a long sordid history of such coups, and even ran one against Erdogan.
The US has also been preventing negotiations. The leaders of France and Germany have publicly admitted that the Minsk agreements were a scam to buy time for Ukrainian rearmament for a war with Russia. The whole point was a war to dismember Russia and creat numerous statelets that could be controlled and looted.
Nevertheless, Russia and Ukraine did negotiate a ceasefire in April 2022 that would have implemented the Minsk accords and kept the Donbas under Ukrainian governance. The US intervened (via PM Johnson), and squashed that agreement. The current war dates from that point.
This is a war planned, instigated, and conducted by the US in order to weaken Russia. Ukraine and the EU are innocent bystanders and collateral damage. In the pursuit of this war the US even attacked the energy infrastructure of Germany.
The regime in Washington is evil and illegitimate. It will destroy the American before it is done.
PS. The main suspects in the assassination of Prigozhine and his coleaders are the US, UK, France, Ukraine. My money is on the CIA.
Kill the Ukrainians and deport some more, replace them with Russians and then claim the land belongs to Russia because almost as many Russians live there. Claim that the Ukrainians are Nazis while ignoring that ethnic Russians were most likely to ally with the actual real Nazis.
Meh. Ignore the Russian BS. They invaded because they could. They put out lots of different reasons to try to justify it but this is just about power. Ukraine had no formal alliances upon which it could depend so Russia could invade. Russia assumed a quick victory due to the seemingly obvious discrepancies in the 2 countries but Russia proved surprisingly inept. Still, in the long run I think they are slightly favored since the size discrepancy is large and logistics matter.
I would encourage the Ukrainian to consider negotiations but after all of the abuse and deaths Russians have caused in their country I think it presumptuous to tell them what to do. You use nice words like illiberal. That nicely covers up the fact that they are mass killers of ethnic Ukrainians. That they send their criminals to not only kill but also abuse, torture and rape ethnic Ukrainians. That they steal the children of ethnic Ukrainians. Only they can decide if the proper response to that is surrender.
This has made it clear to Russia’s neighbors that it is not safe to not have formal alliances to protect against Russia invading them on some pretense.
Steve
The only group that actually has a reasonable claim to Crimea by reason of long habitation is the Tatars. AFAICT they don’t like either the Russian or Ukrainians much.