Just about everyone thinks that the alliance of Iraq, the U. S., the Turks, and the Brits will oust DAESH from Mosul. At the South China Morning Post Bhavan Jaipragas speculates with some alarm about what will happen next. Some of its members will probably head home:
There is rising concern among regional counterterrorism officials that the US-backed war machine encircling Islamic State (IS) is inadvertently spawning a jihadist alumni network in Southeast Asia and elsewhere made up of fleeing militants seeking a safe haven in their home countries.
“The threats posed by foreign terrorist fighter returnees are real and imminent,†Jeremy Douglas, the representative for the UNODC in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, told This Week in Asia . “Increasing military pressure on [IS] in Syria and Iraq is now expected to result in more returnees including many that will want to pursue violent jihad in the region.â€
If the Telegraph’s estimates are to be believed, DAESH’s fighters are from 86 different countries with the greatest numbers in descending order from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Russia (presumably Chechnyans), Jordan, Turkey, France, Morocco, Lebanon, Egypt, and Germany. A few hardened combatants could wreak an enormous amount of damage.
The present strategy in Mosul is not extermination. Quite to the contrary—we’re encouraging DAESH fighters to withdraw. To where?
One of the theories is that they’ll return to their home countries. Another is that they’ll go to fortify Raqqah, the notional capitol of DAESH’s caliphate. A third is that they’ll go to one of the outposts of DAESH’s caliphate. These include Libya, Nigeria, and Philippines. I suspect that all of those will be true in varying degrees.
A man who will shoot people while part of a platoon of like-minded fighters is not necessarily a person who will, on his own, set off a bomb or shoot up a club. Some will, of course, and there will no doubt be more terrorism.
But pushing ISIS out of Iraq and Syria is still useful. People think hopelessness is dangerous, but history begs to disagree. Hope is what spawns revolutions and invasions and all manner of mischief. The caliphate was a big promise that ISIS put on the table. Its crushing will leave a residue of terror, but it will also dash hopes. ISIS fighters believed they were part of something bigger, now they’ll just be dead-enders on various suicide missions.
Let’s just hope we can keep ‘our’ guys on a leash and we can avoid a Shiite retaliatory bloodbath in Mosul.
Not only is pushing DAESH out of Iraq and Syria useful, I think it’s a necessity. Countries with chunks carved out of them isn’t a stable configuration.
As to avoiding a Shi’ite-fomented bloodbath, that’s nominally the reason that the Turks (mostly Sunnis) are insisting on participating with the support of the U. S. and over the objections of the Iraqis. Restoring territory they think belongs to them (which includes Mosul) is a plus. There’s a lot of irredentism going around these days.
I think this is like a business needing Orkin’s monthly treatment plan.
ISIS will not stand and fight, they will strategically withdraw and wait because the entire world knows the weakness of the West is patience and determination .
What is more interesting to me, Is what if we withdraw and just let them have their Caliphate. Islam IS parasitic, are we the only people on Earth capable and willing to resist this disease? Are the locals, by their nature, helpless?
How far can a wildfire burn before it runs out of tinder?
ISIS cannot even feed itself, They are all Deadenders.
That’s why I’ve suggested a reservation—sort of an 8th century theme park, forcibly maintained.
Well, I’ve read of our” liberation” of small towns around Mosul turning into nightmares for the locals as, when coalition forces move on, ISIS returns and rounds up and massacres men and young boys with fresh vigor.
Seems to me, This aint’ working. What if we mass produced, and distributed , millions , and I mean millions of Saturnight specials, fully loaded, with extra clips to all locals and then move on.
Now listen, trust the locals to clean up their hoods if they have the tools. Will this stop the violence? NO, it WILL stop the violence against unarmed civilians, and even the odds. Give the goat herders a chance against this disease called Islam.
Except, the US, Brits and Turks (and Kurds, Iranis and Shia Arabs) will be bystanders. The only people who will attempt to enter the city will be the Sunni Arabs in the Iraqi army. Fat chance that works.