Maduro has been indicted; let the lawfare begin! As for Venezuela’s fate we can only speculate. Despite President Trump’s confidence that we’ll “run Venezuela” the regime in Caracas doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.
Let’s do some wild speculation about what might happen to get our arms around the possibilities. As I see it the following have various degrees of likelihood:
1. U.S. “runs” Venezuela until free, fair, and democratic elections are held. Venezuela becomes a liberal democratic ally of the United States.
This is the best case scenario. I consider this possibility extremely unlikely. It would require the collapse of the Chavista regime, temporary U. S. or multinational control, a complete rework of Venezuela’s security sector and judiciary, and huge capital inflows.
The honest reality is that there is so much opposition to this scenario it’s hard to see how it could happen. The U. S. doesn’t have the will to make it happen. Venezuelan elites are likely to resist literally violently—they have an enormous amount to lose, not just their livelihoods but their lives. Russia and China are unlikely to sit idle while all of this is going on.
2. Iraq redivivus
In this scenario there would be forcible regime change followed by chaos in which an insurgency arises. In my opinion the probability of this is low. Venezuela is not Iraq and U. S. public opinion would be very much against it.
3. The Chavista regime stays, makes reform promises, but doesn’t deliver.
This would be the classical response of an authoritarian regime. Announce electoral reforms, release a few political prisoners, signal openness to investment, get sanctions relief then stall and backslide. I think the likelihood of this scenario is medium to high. It is quite consistent with the behavior pattern of this regime.
4. The Chavista regime stays but there are no real reforms or no foreign investment.
Basically, things just muddle through. Venezuela gets continued support from China and Russia. IMO the likelihood of this scenario is medium.
5. There is an internal coup.
IMO the likelihood of this is low.
I think it’s instructive to think about the analogies to Iran and Cuba with Zimbabwe as an object lesson.
In the Iran case Venezuela would remain a sanctioned oil state with a culture of evasion and transactional détente. Although superficially that seems likely Venezuela does not have the ideological framework Iran has or the accompanying institutional stability.
Cuba, too, has some superficial similarities but Venezuela has an oil and smuggling economy. It is not a closed island economy like Cuba.
In the Zimbabwe case we see an ongoing economic collapse, hyperinflation, and retrenchment of the ruling party. However, Zimbabwe is not a strategic oil state and it doesn’t have a security partner (Cuba) as Venezuela does.
None of these analogies is particularly close.
Please feel free to add your own prognostications in comments.
What I consider to be the most likely outcome (not the same as a probable outcome), is that the current government stays in power and makes a few cosmetic improvements and starts to get some investment. When the next election occurs, the Chavistas get voted out of power by a very large margin (similar to Bolivia).
The biggest challenge is a free election.
Beyond Trump, I think the politician influencing South American politics the most is Javier Milei. This is a good thing. People will see and hear about Argentina and will want that for Venezuela.
There is a variant to option 3. The regime some concessions to keep the status quo (reduced drug trafficking, not causing a refugee crisis through the Americas, less involvement with Iran, Russia, China but no elections or deals on oil).
I think the chance of an internal coup is pretty significant. Maduro likely picked the current acting President on the basis Ms Rodriguez wasn’t a threat to him (i.e. have organic support with the security services, or other power players in the regime, or the ability to build such a coalition).
If the US has lots of involvement I dont expect things to go well. The US deciding what Venezuelans should want wont go well. If the US stays out of it there is a chance of improvement.
Any idea if the oil companies, per Trump, are really going to go investing billions of dollars into the place? Having a hard time seeing them being thrilled about putting a lot of money into such an unstable place.
Steve
Its not the instability of Venezuela that determines whether oil companies invest there or not; its about the price of oil. At $60 or below, the ROI on capex isn’t there, if oil is sustainably at $120, they will invest billions.
One other thing about Bolivian socialism. Unlike most religions whose central claims cannot be proven or disproven because they concern supernatural or non-material things — socialism’s (really the Marxist type) central claims are materialistic, and what’s happened to Venezuela in the past 20 years is a clear refutation of the movements claims.
That’s why in the medium / long term Venezuela’s government’s grip will weaken. It has been hollowed by the loss of faith (hence the lost of elections) and it retains power only by force.
At present, it appears the Chavistas are still in power, but there is evidently a faction in the highest levels willing to cooperate with (sell out to) the US. Trump’s stated goals require a submissive government in Caracas, but it need not be openly. We will have to wait to see how this plays out. A large scale (Afghan sized) invasion and long term occupation are still possible.
Also very important is the realization that Trump’s threats to seize Greenland and attack Cuba, Iran, et al. are real. The rules of international relations have changed. The gunboats are back.
There is no degree of objective failure that will cause those who desire the notional ideals of socialism to reject it. We’re seeing that right now in New York City.
If oil is sustainably at $120 and they know the industry could be nationalized at any time they will invest? If they start pumping lots of oil in Venezuela seems like oil prices should go down. The only way I see this working is if they have guarantees from the US government. I can actually see Trump doing that given how much he has been willing to interfere with private enterprise.
Steve