In his Washington Post column Henry Olsen critiques the present “COVID-19 relief” bill:
Biden has merely put a happy face on a strongly progressive agenda. Many of his executive orders — including canceling the Keystone XL pipeline and reentering the Paris climate accord — simply repeal former president Donald Trump’s actions. House Democrats have introduced the administration’s comprehensive immigration bill with no substantive GOP input, and they are also pursuing a ludicrously partisan rewrite of election law (H.R. 1). Initial talks with a group of 10 Republican senators over a compromise to Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid-19 relief bill have fizzled. Democrats are now moving to pass the massive proposal using the reconciliation procedure that allows a fiscal bill to pass the Senate with only a majority vote instead of the 60 votes needed to surmount a filibuster. Biden’s nice talk can’t wholly mask this nakedly partisan drive.
and observes:
Good negotiators follow a few simple rules. First, get leverage and use it to shape the contours of the deal. Second, have something on the table that you can give up that the other party values a lot. Third, use initial negotiating sessions to feel your adversary out and get a sense of their priorities and temper. Do this, and any deal will likely result in you getting more of what you want than if you act rashly.
Biden’s behavior so far follows these guidelines perfectly. The reconciliation process gives him leverage: Talk or you’ll lose everything. The bill itself is so filled with liberal wishes and so excessive in size that even some Democratic economists have criticized it. Biden could cut the bill in half and still end with more than enough aid to help those struggling because of the pandemic. And the initial discussions with the 10 senators provided a sense of what they want (a smaller, more targeted bill) and their temper (they really want to get to yes). All of this bodes well for a deal in early March — if Biden wants one.
which raises the question: what does Biden want? Or, more precisely, what does he want more? Does he want to unify the country or the Democratic Party? I’m betting it’s the latter and that, as he moves left, the center of the party will move left faster. I don’t believe that the Sanders wing of the Democratic Party will be satisfied with $1.9 trillion or $10.9 trillion in additional spending—they’re taking the position that numbers don’t matter, that there is no amount the federal government might spend that will have adverse consequences.
I have a wisecrack about Joe Biden’s promise to unify the country.
Biden prays – “Lord, make me unify the country—but not yet.”
Just looking at Politifacts list of 100 campaign promises; the words “unity”, “unify” occur 0 times. The word “bipartisan” appear twice and only the “Get bipartisan cooperation on the economy” is a serious one.
As for “bipartisan cooperation on the economy”; Biden didn’t promise when. I’m sure Biden will consider it achieved if he is forced to negotiate a spending bills with Republicans if Democrats lose a chamber of Congress in 2022 or even worse, forced to negotiate an emergency bill that is too toxic for Democrats to pass alone (like bailing out a State or the Federal Reserve if the bond market seizes up).
That actually accords with my recollection of the campaign — Biden highlighted Trump’s divisiveness but didn’t exactly promise the opposite for Republicans if he won.
As to the 1.9 trillion figure — I believe its down to the machinery of Congressional procedures and Congressional leadership politics. That 1.9 trillion figure is what Pelosi and Schumer could agree on, they are bound to it from a sense of “momentum” and the rules of reconciliation.
Biden and his White House are and will defer to the Democratic Congress much like the Obama did with ARRA, ACA; from sociology, if you put basically the same people as 12 years ago with the same powers and the same responsibilities, the better bet would be they do the same things all over again.
Reminder, this is a warmup to the proposed 4 trillion infrastructure bill.