The editors of the Wall Street Journal react to recent statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Foreign Ministry about Ukraine:
On Friday the Kremlin made its demands public. The U.S. and Europe have delivered a mixed response so far and will have to do more to deter Vladimir Putin.
Moscow wants NATO to rule out eastward expansion and roll back military activity in a range of theaters, according to draft documents sent to the U.S. and allies this week. This would mean blocking Ukrainian accession to the alliance and effectively banning NATO forces from being stationed in member states like Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
“The line pursued by the United States and NATO over recent years to aggressively escalate the security situation is absolutely unacceptable and extremely dangerous,†a Russian foreign ministry official said, apparently without irony. “Washington and its NATO allies should immediately stop regular hostile actions against our country.â€
Regarding “hostile actions,†Russia and Russian-backed forces invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Both countries would like to join NATO but haven’t been granted membership. NATO has deployed token numbers of troops as a deterrent in the Baltic states and Poland, though only after Mr. Putin snatched Crimea in 2014.
Mr. Putin isn’t worried that Latvian troops will march on Moscow. His goal is Kremlin hegemony over Central and Eastern Europe, which have prospered under Western security and economic arrangements. His invasion threat is a power play to win concessions from Europe and the West such as President Biden’s decision in May to waive sanctions against the company behind the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
It would be helpful if the editors had provided examples of the Russian aggression they see for two important reasons.
- Russia is not the Soviet Union
- The Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact was a reaction to an invasion of its soil that killed 30 million Soviet citizens
Georgia and Ukraine? The Georgians and Ukrainians, egged on by encouragements from the West, were the aggressors in both instances. The impetus for both was offering NATO membership to the two countries.
No, the Russians aren’t afraid that Latvians will march on Moscow. They’re worried about the treatment of ethnic Russians in Latvia. Ethnic Russians constitute a quarter of the population of the country. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union there have been stepwise moves discriminating against ethnic Russians in Latvia. It is an element of Latvian nationalism. It’s not dissimilar to the treatment of Bretons in France. Many consider them not “really French”.
There are similar concerns about Ukraine and Georgia.
The question I would ask is whether adding the Baltic states to NATO improved U. S. security? I think it did the reverse. I can definitely see how it promoted the interests of Latvian, Estonian, and Lithuanian nationalists. Similarly, would adding Ukraine and Georgia to NATO improve U. S. security. I simply don’t see it. Something being opposed by the Russians does not necessarily make it in the U. S. interest.
To be perfectly clear I am not pro-Russian. I’m just not anti-Russian, I understand the Russians’ priorities and concerns, and I don’t see how alienating Russia advances American interests.
For those interested in the texts of the Russian-proposed “treaties,” they can be found at the Vinyard of the Saker,
https://thesaker.is/russian-draft-documents-on-legal-security-guarantees-from-the-united-states-and-nato/
These have already been rejected by Psaki for the Administration and Stoltenberg for NATO. Hopefully, that is for public consumption, and real negotiations will occur privately.
Many commenters regard the Russian proposals as ultimatums. There is certainly a threat behind them, not of actual war, but of heavy militarization, including intermediate range nuclear missiles. Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, is a suggested site for the missiles.
For information, the Baltics are more or less three large cities: Estonia, 1.33 M; Latvia, 1.90 M; Lithuania (current), 2.7 M. Belarus has only 9.40 M people, and after the wave of emigration following the coup, Ukraine is somewhere between 25 and 30 M. Ukraine’s loss amount to 10 to 15 M young people, who have moved on to the EU and Russia. Ukraine is a shambles.
China has publicly supported the Russian proposals. Will we see Chinese troops and aircraft stationed in western Russia? How would that change things? It seems to me it would be a major escalation of threats.
These Russian proposals are by far the biggest story since the 9/11 attacks, but they are being ignored by the media. We have transitioned into a new era of international relations, one in which the US has a weaker hand and confronts two full peers who are allied. Some moderation in American foreign policy is needed.