I’m seeing a rash of articles this morning complaining about emerging Israeli regional hegemony. Nothing could be more absurd or farther from reality.
It may be that some Israelis long for such an outcome. It maybe that nothing short of regional hegemony will give some Israelis the security they want. Let me remind you that Israel is a tiny country the size of New Jersey and smaller than some of our counties without natural resources.
Israel may be able to destroy Iran’s warmaking capability. It may be able to destroy its nuclear program although I doubt its ability to do even that. Conquering Iran is beyond its competence. Iran is too big and too isolated by its ring of mountains. That’s why conquering the Persians eluded the Romans for 1,500 years.
The reasons for the Israelis’ success against Iran are:
- U. S. support
- Some very smart very capable Israelis who are afraid of their neighbors for reasons based on experience and willing to devote the resources to doing something about it.
- General Iranian incompetence or perhaps overconfidence.
So, what are the Arabs and Iranians who are writing these jeremiads afraid of?
I have to assume their fear is based upon the pretty rational belief that Israel has almost unconditional support from the US. It doesnt mean that Israel can invade and conquer everyone but they can freely bomb anyone they want without much fear of serious retaliation.
I will have to say that I continue to wonder about the incompetence of Arab/ME Air Forces in general. The Iraq Air Force was pretty awful. Being in the Air Force I had a lot of long talks with pilots about the Iraq Air Force and they had no respect for it. The same was true for the Saudis. They thought the Saudi pilots were barely competent and cowards to boot. Now the Iran Air Force looks much the same.
The ground force security is at least part of the issue. It sounds like the Israelis largely rendered the S-300-400s out of action. That and/or they were never as good as we thought.
Steve
Which is why I have always thought that our support for Israel should be conditional and limited. The Israelis are not our friends—they are their own friends.
That doesn’t mean I would argue that dismantling Iran’s nuclear development program is against our interests. It’s in our interest. We would rejoice in an end to Iran’s nuclear development program. But the end still doesn’t justify the means.