I just read a very encouraging post about the protests in Iran by Iranian journalist Roohola Ramezani at Persuasion. Here’s a telling snippet, its conclusion:
Iranians want neither a better version of the Islamic Republic nor a utopian revolution. They want the extraordinary era of Iranian history to end. They want to return to being a normal nation state that prioritizes its borders over ideological “frontiers,” its citizens over “martyrs,” and its future over seventh-century grievances.
A fierce, secular realism is emerging. The protest movement is redefining Iranian identity not through the lens of a “Global South” struggle against the West, but as a struggle to rejoin the West’s political and economic orbit. It’s a movement that does not fit neatly into the categories of anti-imperialism or identity politics; but it is, nevertheless, perhaps the most authentic democratic project of our time.
My problem with it is that I don’t see an evidentiary basis for that level of specificity. Quite to the contrary another alternative is that Iranians are reacting to the incompetence of the mullahocracy. What Iranians want in aggregate or whether they have common goals other than escape from their present misery I have no idea.
I have little doubt that some Iranians want precisely what the author suggests. Whether that’s all Iranians, a majority, or just a few I have no idea and I see no indication that anyone has the data required to make that determination. Shared opposition to a regime does not, by itself, imply shared agreement on what should replace it. The historical record suggests that one faction will succeed in applying its own preferred solution and that faction will not necessarily be the most numerous or even the most popular one.
Here’s my question. How would we arrive at an empirically-based understanding of what Iranians want right now? That’s not a rhetorical question. I genuinely want to know because I think that policies should be based on facts not wishful thinking, however heartfelt.
I’ll trust claims about national political aims only when they’re supported by (1) survey evidence with methods described, plus (2) at least one independent corroborating stream. That could be behavioral indicators, slogan analysis, turnout or legitimacy signals, or multiple polling efforts. Otherwise, I will treat them as hopeful interpretation.
