What Are the Actual Impediments?

In an op-ed in the New York Times after pointing out that due to the present COVID-19 crisis unfolding in India the country, which manufactures a lot of the vaccines used in the poorer countries of the world, had shifted from being an exporter of vaccines to an importer, health care policy analyst Prashant Yadav gives his prescription:

First, we need to develop a way to map global vaccine-manufacturing capacity rigorously, routinely and transparently.

Doing this is not as straightforward as it may seem. It requires understanding the type of equipment available at a manufacturing site, adapting it to the steps required to produce a specific vaccine, calibrating it for dosing and expected yield. Some of that information might be commercially sensitive, and vaccine manufacturers may be reluctant to share it publicly.

This obstacle can be overcome, however. Safeguards can be put in place to protect proprietary information, for example by sharing only aggregate data about manufacturing capacity, without revealing the specific configuration of the equipment or sources of supplies.

Second, production sites must be multiplied and diversified.

As the current moment illustrates, the world is vulnerable for relying so much on vaccines manufactured in India because India itself may have a great need for the vaccines it produces. To minimize the risk that domestic demand will scuttle exports and global distribution, vaccine production hubs should be set up in countries with small populations.

Prospective hub countries will also need to be well-connected, to ensure both the arrival of raw materials and the speedy export of vaccines. They should have reliable infrastructure and a competent work force skilled in manufacturing biologics (complex proteins made from living cells). Based on these criteria, Singapore, Luxembourg, Belgium, Panama, Senegal and Rwanda are candidates worth exploring.

I think that Mr. Yadav has identified an actual issue but it’s not the one he thinks it is. What are the actual impediments to the vaccine-producing “hubs” he imagines? I would submit that capital investment to create them is limited, largely due to China’s and India’s being too focused on the export trade and not enough production for their domestic markets. Another factor might be undependable governments (Panama, Senegal, and Rwanda).