In last Thursday’s first presidential debate of the 2004 campaign season, there were a number of glaring omissions. Iraq was discussed, of course. And the only real substance of the debate was in the discussion of North Korea. The minimal discussion of Iran made it clear that neither candidate had much in the way of policy towards Iran. Mr. Kerry’s position may be evaporating as we speak.
No mention was made of Mexico. With many millions of her citizens within our borders both legally and illegally aren’t our relations with Mexico a serious issue? Securing our southern border against entry by potential terrorists?
What about Venezuela? The situation there appears to me to be very fragile indeed. I can’t find anything about Venezuela on the Bush site. And the position statements on John Kerry’s site were lightweight. The unrest in Venezuela is one of the many causes for the rising price of oil. Why nothing on Venezuela? Apparently Jim Lehrer is a one-issue voter.
And what about the dog in the manger, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Not a word.
But of all of the omissions the one that bothered me the most was China. China was mentioned only as an appendage to the discussion of the North Korean situation.
China is the most populous nation on earth, a major trading partner and competitor, a major nuclear power, and is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council i.e. they have a veto.
So let me list some of the reasons that China should be getting a lot more attention.
- China and oil
China is a major consumer of oil. As their economy grows so does their need for oil. Although China does produce oil domestically most of the increase in their consumption is derived from imports. more than half of China’s imported oil is from the Middle East. Most of China’s imported oil comes through the Malacca Straits. U. S. naval domination of the South China Sea is a potential threat to that oil supply. The increase in world oil prices is less due to unrest in the Middle East and other oil-producing areas than to increases in Chinese consumption (hat tip: Steven Taylor).
- Chinese monetary policy and banking
Chinese monetary policy while deft is increasingly fragile. Chinese banks have recently had to write off a significant amount in bad debts. With China’s increasing economic influence as a world trader monetary or banking problems in China could have worldwide impact.
- China trade and Mexico
The enormous increase in imports into the U. S. from China over the last few years has large come at the expense of Mexico and other Latin American countries. This has resulted in a deteriorating economic situation in Mexico and increased immigration (legal and illegal) from Mexico into the United States.
- China and North Korea
North Korea is basically a Chinese client state. Without Chinese support Kim Jong-Il’s government would be unlikely to endure for long. And so long as Chinese support continues Kim Jong-Il is in a strong bargaining position with the United States. No talks with North Korea that don’t include China are worth conducting.
- China and U. S. debt
China is one of the largest foreign holders of U. S. debt. The Chinese are, in effect, recycling their trade surplus into U. S. Treasury bonds. If China were to stop doing this due to domestic eonomic instability or to dump their Treasury holdings for any reason whatsoever it could have a notable effect on interest rates in the United States. This is a major concern especially with the current deficit position of the U. S. government.
- “One Child Policy” and social stability
The double whammy of China’s “One Child Policy” and the traditional value of male children in the society has resulted in the abortion of millions of female babies. The imbalance between males and females that has resulted is likely to be a substantial source of social unrest in China as the 21st century unfolds. Historically such imbalances have resulted in higher crime rates, greater societal violence, and militarism.
- China and Taiwan
Recent Chinese saber-rattling with respect to Taiwan is troubling. Defense of Taiwan in case of Chinese invasion has been U. S. policy for more than 50 years. Is it still?
Human rights, industrial policy, environmental issues. The list goes on and on. Why isn’t anyone asking questions about China?
UPDATE: Linked to Beltway Traffic Jam
Also, the upcoming implementation of the tariff reductions on textiles is going to have a huge impact on the global balance of trade. Latin America could be in deep doo-doo.
Thanks for adding that, praktike. It underscores the point I’m trying to make in this post. This stuff is interrelated, darn it, and both candidates are trying to address these issues in detail. IMO the only way to do that is to broaden the dialogue with China first.
Hey Dave,
Where do you stand on immigration policy and Mexico’s recent policy of cultivating dual-loyalty among Mexican -Americans ?
mark, those are complex issues that need posts of their own. I’m not an immigration hater. I believe that we need an immigration policy suitable to the 21st century. What we’ve got ain’t it. Although I’ve been qualified for dual citizenship since the day I was born (since if your father was qualified for Swiss citizenship so are you), I don’t believe in dual citizenship. And we need to have constitutional provisions for removing citizenship. Some criteria for that that I would support: serving in a foreign army making war against the United States, voting in a foreign election.
Sounds pretty reasonable.
I am not anti-immigration either though having a very large uncontrolled border so that we can’t know who or how many people are coming here ( or from what country) is most unwise. Acting as a safety-valve for Mexico so political elites there can delay or avoid making important economic and political reforms is doubly unwise.