Maybe the reason for the difference in the outcomes of COVID-19 in China, South Korea, and Japan isn’t as much due to difference in their responses but in differences between the virus they’re fighting and the one we are. From the Jerusalem Post:
A coronavirus study by several researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, where the atomic bomb was invented, claims that a new strain of the novel COVID-19 is more contagious than the original form of the virus.
The study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, looked at 14 mutations in the “spike protein,” which mediates the infection of human cells and is therein targeted by most attempted vaccines for the virus. Of those mutations, one stood out, according to the study, for spreading much more aggressively than the original strain of the virus.That same mutation was originally seen spreading in Europe, after which it spread to the rest of the world. That is currently the most common strain. This was found through a computational analysis of thousands of coronavirus sequences found around the world by the Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza Data, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The report claimed that people who catch this strain are at an increased risk of catching the illness a second time, which is why the authors felt that an early warning was necessary so that vaccines and drugs that are in development may be effective against the mutated strain, according to the LA Times.
Because of the rate at which this new strain is spreading, it is possible that it is more infectious than the previous strains of the virus. The reason is not yet known.
That could also explain the tremendous differences between what’s happening in New York and in the Pacific Northwest. Earlier genetic studies suggested that the strain of the virus in New York originated in Europe while that in the Pacific Northwest was closer to the original strain that began in China.
Different effects from different strains could also explain some of the wildly varying symptoms that are being reported.
Yes, it could. But given that it’s quite apparent that the virus was running around far earlier than we originally knew. And given the huge amount of travel that would get each strain well distributed over numerous geographies, call me skeptical. It has the earmarks of forcing an explanation onto data.
Strains of the virus or human genetic differences is the “get out of jail” card (for explaining what we do not understand or what we do not want to accept).
DNA differences play some role. But it is unlikely to be the source of all or the majority of the international disparity.
I point to the relative differences between neighboring States. That is unlikely to be due to genetics (viral or human).
Agree with Drew. Too early to tell.
Steve
I read early on that there were at least eight mutations of Kung Flu out there (and the researchers admitted there were likely many more). Different strains with differing contagious ability and effects might explain not just NYC vs CA but why the original Wuhan epidemic apparently was so brutally lethal (again from what I’ve read the death toll might well over a magnitude worse than what the Chinese reported).
This does not bode well for a vaccine. I suspect the beast is going to end up another annual or semiannual epidemic like the common cold and the flu we’re just going to have to get used to.
I agree with the others too, the unknown unknowns still far outweight even the known unknowns.
“The unknown unknowns still far outweigh even the known unknowns.â€
And yet here we are, obsessing about worst case scenario originating from discredited virus models. Businesses are paralyzed. People are locked down and locked out of commonly practiced rituals and activities. Human contact is being shedded like what experts say happens with this virus. Schools are closed, and society seemingly willing to distance themselves from expectations of having their civil rights upheld. It’s absurd.