I wanted to share some thoughts on how I think that our struggle with COVID-19 is unfolding, using Illinois as an example. I think the evidence is that in Illinois at least the pandemic is over or, more precisely, has entered a new phase and is now endemic. Consider the increase in hospitalizations and deaths due to the latest COVID-19 variant:
But surely deaths aren’t the only metric we should be considering. What about the overburdened healthcare system.
If Illinois’s healthcare system is in danger of being overwhelmed, it isn’t by COVID-19.
Also, consider the inoculation rate, widely quoted as 60% having received at least one dose. I think that’s grossly misleading. 15% of Illinois’s population consists of children under 12 who aren’t eligible to receive the vaccine, at least not yet. Then add the percentage of people who’ve had the disease and recovered. That’s at least 12% of the population and possibly considerably more. Now you’re starting to talk 80-90% of the population with at least some resistance to the disease.
Don’t get me wrong. I believe that more people should be vaccinated. I also have no problem with making wearing masks mandatory when you go to the store or to work or even among children in school. Something I haven’t heard mentioned: there are social reasons for that. If everyone is wearing a mask in school—no problem. If some kids are wearing masks including those with suppressed immune systems and others aren’t kids being what they are there will be bullying.
One more point. Increasingly, the stats I’m seeing on severe disease seem to show a pretty close correlation between serious COVID-19 and obesity. How far would that go to explaining the racial disparities in contracting the disease? I think it’s worth considering.
My preliminary conclusion from all of this is that this is what things are going to look like for the foreseeable future. The disease will continue to circulate among the population, new mutations arising, and we’ll have yet another seasonal disease with mortality somewhat above the flu and another annual inoculation. It’s not a particularly appealing prospect but it’s something we can get used to.
Endemic but much more contagious than the flu and probably about 5 times as deadly. Also, given the big outbreak in the summer not sure its seasonal in the way we see with other respiratory viruses. I am guessing yearly boosters. Just hope that at some point it becomes just a medical issue and not a political one.
Steve
The common cold is a coronavirus, actually about four, I think. So, either we’re headed for an annual shot, if new covid variants are like flu, or we just get the sniffles.
If we are headed for boosters this fall, I would greatly prefer that it be a new vaccine targeting delta, or whatever is the circulating variant. I don’t see the point of a booster for a variant that is two years old and likely no longer around.
I do wish we could trust the experts, especially the CDC and various health departments, but there have been too many flip-flops and lies.
As a delta denialist, I believe changes in social behavior drove this wave, as restrictions were lifted and social contacts increased. There probably should have been more messaging about easing into normal though I think there was always an implicit, if not explicit, message that people should abide restrictions just a little bit longer and then everything is back to normal and the politicians took their celebratory lap.
While I think hospitalizations are being driven by the unvaccinated, I think people tend to underestimate that a chunk of the people that “played by the rules” during restrictions did so with the belief that they wouldn’t need to get vaccinated once we got back to normal. These are people that would not have any immunity from prior infection who would be good candidates to spread the infection along new social networks.
I think Covid becomes like the flu. The Reproduction number has dropped below one in about thirty states (per covidestim), and it’s particularly low in places like Florida (0.66), Louisiana (0.46) and Mississippi (0.61) that I don’t think did much to stop it. People are infected are vaccinated, social networks are temporarily exhausted, but the waves will be smaller and less discernible.
With this virus, I’ve learned to be cautious about predictions.
I agree with the observation COVID-19 is endemic. With more findings that there are multiple animal hosts (minks, deer, felines); it is implausible humanity will ever be rid of the virus .
With regards to the current wave; we have to wait to see where the health care system will be in the North. State numbers show many of the midwest and northeast states are on the ascending side of the wave.
In the Southern states, much of the health care system got to the breaking point. And I’m cautious of saying its a “Southern/Red-State/Republican” thing because this wave is stressing the health care system in the Pacific Northwest very hard as well.
https://www.kptv.com/news/oha-only-43-available-icu-beds-remaining-6-availability-43-new-covid-deaths/article_1dc47912-0aa9-11ec-bb46-630247bf181a.html
Also, there is no data whether we need a 1 time-booster shot, an annual booster shot, or a shot every 8/6/5 months. It is all conjecture at this point.
Any one watching college football this weekend will be aware that the public is tired of COVID safety measures.
I can’t predict what will happen, but it’s pretty clear, unless you are a hermit, you’re going to be exposed.
Shouldn’t be long now before what’s done is done.
I’m an agnostic, I don’t think we can hide from it, or the flu.
If @Steve still lurks, I’m wondering if the various and random effects of this virus are typical of coronavirus in general or if not does that characteristic make it more likely COVID 19 was engineered.
Sanity.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/533903-medical-treatment-denial-unvaccinated-covid/