There are actually all sorts of interesting aspects of the COVID-19 outbreak, now spreading all over the world. The first, of course, is that it’s spreading all over the world. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South America are now beginning to report cases—South Africa 62, Senegal 26, Brazil 234, Colombia 57, for example. That COVID-19 can spread in countries with tropical climates (like Singapore) by community spread casts a pall on the theory that the outbreak will abate with the advent of warmer weather.
Something else that puzzles me is how few recoveries are being reported. To the best of my ability to determine no country has reported that a majority of cases has recovered. Either they’re failing to report recoveries, recovery is very slow, or people are just failing to recover. Maybe there’s some other explanation but I find that interesting.
The daily number of deaths from the virus in South Korea, never particularly large, was only three yesterday. It was seven on March 2. That difference is too small a number from which to draw conclusions.
According to the Wall Street Journal Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are experiencing another wave of new infections:
Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong are witnessing fresh waves of coronavirus infections, as the growing number of cases around the world test their successful early defenses against the disease.
Singapore reported 23 new cases late Tuesday, its highest daily count since the epidemic started. Taiwan recorded a single-day high of 10 cases of infection, bringing its total to 77. Hong Kong added five new cases—a day after it recorded nine—the most since Feb 9.
These are being attributed to people bringing the infection back with them not just from China but from other countries. That suggests that countries that do a lot of international trade are at particular risk. Or maybe those “recovered” are still able to spread the infection. Or maybe the number of the infected is being drastically underestimated. We just don’t know what we don’t know.
Here’s the telling quote:
“The trouble with this virus is that it is very unpredictable. We do not know who will be at the center of a super-spreading event,†said Paul Anantharajah Tambyah, the president of the Asia-Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection. “We are not safe in any place until everyone all over the world is safe.â€
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
An somewhat different take on the situation –
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
Not that different a take. I’ve been saying much the same thing for weeks here.
My three year old granddaughter has learned to purse her lips, blow and make a motor boat sound. Covered my face with spit spray, twice.
Containment has already failed here.
From Drew’s article.
“At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.”
We really need to be able to test. We are now making decisions based upon our best guesses much more than I am comfortable with. We need more reliable data on what behaviors matter most, do we get immunity, what vent modes work best, does ECMO help or is it just really expensive care that makes us feel good? That just skims the surface.
Steve
You have to look past the narrow suspect data issue. That’s the easy part. The question is: Do you adopt a policy in which you bring the world to a standstill, with all its attendant costs, based upon extrapolations of suspect data. Further, when did a riskless society become the standard? We don’t do that with other flues. We don’t do it with motor vehicle accidents; Hell, we can’t get repeat drunk drivers off the road. We don’t do it with any number of risks. We do cost benefit.
But corona – based upon sketchy data – needs to have heaven and earth moved, wrecking the lives of millions. Something is not right here.
Yeah, and it’s not gonna work. Can’t link to WSJ cause paywall but the young just aren’t buying into this. I suspect they can’t. They’re restless and have to move. If schools closed they’ll gather somewhere else.
Are we going to put troops on the street and shoot them?
GreyShambler: Only the deplorable ones. We need a test for that. I’m sure top people are working on that.
I will say to all here that this is one of the more enjoyable blog sites I frequent. The posts are interesting and informative, the comments are generally also informative and courteous, and when there are differences of opinion they don’t devolve into a food fights. Several others I visit have turned into looney-tune tinfoil hat conspiracy hive minds.