Pat Lang has started war-gaming the Syria conflict. I don’t plan to participate myself other than via commentary here.
I think that those who’ve suggested a major troop commitment by the Russians by the end of the year are mistaken. The Russians are doing just fine with airstrikes. I think that ground troops will continue to be provided by the Syrian government and the Iranians. The Russians are almost undoubtedly receiving better ground intelligence than we are and that, coupled with the very much higher number of sorties they’re flying, means that their air campaign is significantly more effective than ours has been. They’re also not hampered by the struggle to distinguish good rebels from bad rebels.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Chinese observers showed up and by that I mean actual observers.
I also think that the continued mayhem in Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, and Libya will push ever more migrants into Europe. At least two European governments will have major shakeups as a result. Pressure from some German states, e.g. Saxony and Thuringia, will lead the Merkel government to refocus attention. My off-hand guess is that they’ll renew their call for other EU countries to take their fair share of the migrants. I also expect more violent incidents against Middle Eastern, North African, and West Asian migrants in Germany, Sweden, and possibly elsewhere before the end of the year.
The Obama Administration hasn’t yet figured out that effective military intervention means knowing who to fight. The Russians solved this by tagging any and all anti-government forces as the enemy.
Meanwhile the U.S. continues dropping the occasional bomb on a hot rock so it appears to be Doing Something without bothering to define strategic objectives, goals or a conception of how our involvement will be ended.
I can’t figure out what Turkey will do. If Europe closes the gates, Turkey gets a lot of migrants dumped on them. They have somewhat conflicting goals in opposing Assad and the Kurds. Since they have been largely rejected by the EU, they had talked about turning East but they are opposing Iran. I am sure Erdogan will choose what is best for Erdogan, but not sure what course that will take.
Steve
or, said another way, Turkey might need to live up to its treaty obligations. The Turks are signatories to both of the relevant conventions. They’ve been dodging their responsibilities and fobbing them off on the Europeans.
Sure, but what do they actually do if they can’t just pass on those people? I think it might lead them to stop supporting efforts to destabilize Syria, but it i s hard to tell.
Steve