You might want to take a look at Vox’s predictions for 2024, by Bryan Walsh, Dylan Matthews, Sigal Samuel, Kenny Torrella, Marina Bolotnikova, and Izzie Ramirez. All told they make 24. Here are the first eight:
- Donald Trump will return to the White House (55 percent)
- Republicans will recapture the Senate (85 percent)
- Democrats will recapture the House (55 percent)
- Inflation will come in under 3 points (65 percent)
- 2023 US car crash deaths will again exceed 40,000 (60 percent
- Netanyahu will be unseated as Israeli prime minister (75 percent)
- The world will be hotter in 2024 than it was in 2023 (80 percent)
- Narendra Modi will remain as prime minister of India after the country’s 2024 elections (85 percent)
It might be more interesting to consider the first three predictions together. On face value they’re telling us it’s more likely that a Republican wave will be more likely than a Democratic one and no wave at all is more likely than a wave for either.
It also might be interesting to consider which of their predictions is the most likely to be wrong. I suspect it’s their prediction about Netanyahu.
Too early to call US elections as there is lots of time for last minute events. I do think Trump is more likely, unfortunately. Agree on Netanyahu. I think a lot of people want to think that Israel is trying to eliminate Hamas but that is only partly true. Netanyahu screwed up big time by letting Hamas go wild on 10/7 so he is now showing he will fearlessly order the IDF to kill lots of people, Hamas or not, to get revenge. The majority that supported him and his increasing settlements on the West Bank will keep him if he kills enough Palestinians as atonement.
Steve
If Joe Biden is to have any shot at re-election, his approval rating must stop trending down. It has been trending down for just about a year. That’s why I’m skeptical, for example, that inflation has ended.
If experience is any gauge the federal government will start disbursing money in substantial amounts soon. The White House has some impact on disbursements. A lot more than on taxation or aggregate product. Without increased aggregate product additional disbursements without increased taxation will produce inflation.
The world will be reported to be warmer in 2024 than in any previous year.
I’m surprised at the Trump prediction, though I certainly see this as an anti-incumbent election with two incumbents at the top of the ticket. The Senate and House switching would underscore that.
“That’s why I’m skeptical, for example, that inflation has ended.”
??? Several sources confirm its in the 3% range. Wages are still a bit behind. Look at the polls. They consistently show that the majority of people report their personal finances are good but the national economy is very bad. However, talk about it keeps going on plus the positives in the economy get very little coverage. Much the same with crime. It’s down, a lot, but that doesnt get reported. Media concentrates on negatives.
Steve