The editors of the Washington Post point to the “U-Haul index”:
You’ve heard of voting with your feet. What about a referendum via U-Haul?
The rental company released its annual growth index this week, which measures the net gain or losses in one-way customers taking their trucks from one state to another, based on over 2.5 million transactions. Texas claimed the top spot for growth. That’s the seventh time it’s happened in the last decade. Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee rounded out the top five. Nine of the top 10 growth states voted red in the last presidential election.
The states with the lowest growth were the usual suspects. California came in last. Massachusetts, New York, Illinois and New Jersey rounded out the bottom five. Of the bottom 10, seven voted blue in the last election.
concluding:
U-Haul’s results don’t correlate perfectly with population or economic growth, but they underline domestic migration patterns: People want to live in pro-growth, low-tax states, while the biggest losers tend to be places with big governments and high taxes. The consequence of state policies trickle down to the metropolitan level. The top three growing metro areas — Dallas, Houston and Austin — are in Texas. The 10 biggest growth cities are all in Florida, South Carolina and Texas.
The plaint that people are just moving to places the weather is nicer doesn’t withstand California’s losses of population. As it turns out California’s flirting with a wealth tax impels wealthy people to move elsewhere.
Taxes are not the only variable but they are the variable policymakers actually control and voters appear to be responding.
Party loyalty ain’t what it used to be. Especially when tax policy collides with personal balance sheets. Popular sentiment is one thing; established power bases are another and the two are rather clearly in conflict. It’s hard for me to see how the states that are losing population avoid a fiscal death spiral as their tax bases shrink leaving their obligations remain.
They actually ask people why they are moving and housing costs are the leading factors. Other commonly listed are cost of living, weather and taxes, so taxes are a secondary factor.
Still, the states you listed have cities that have policies that make it hard to build or have bad policies like rent control and those drive up housing costs. (I think this is mostly driven at the city/county level. PA is a low growth state at least partially due to people leaving yet my area has massive new home building. Note that 2 of the 3 fastest growing Texas cities have Dem mayors and the third was a Dem until 1 1/2 years ago.)
As an aside, this always seems to focus on income taxes. Just back from visiting daughter in Nashville area and her combined property tax rate plus sales tax is higher than my state income plus property plus sales taxes (rates). Plus, property is much more expensive there than Philly or Pittsburgh.
Steve