As I have been for several weeks now I was reviewing the global COVID-19 data and I noticed something I wanted to share with you. Only a handful of countries south of 23° North have death rates per million due to COVID-19 above 20: Ecuador (29), Dominican Republic (22), Panama (32), Bahamas (23), St. Martin (52), Antigua & Barbuda (31), and Turks & Caicos (26). With the exception of Ecuador a prospective explanation for those would be that they reflect cases imported from the U. S., Canada, or Europe. I don’t know enough about Ecuador to venture a guess.
In most of those countries the death rate per million is extremely low—frequently less than 5.
That could reflect the relative disconnection of the “Global South” from what we perhaps over-generously call the “world economy”. Or it could be climate, demographics, maybe their recordkeeping is poor, or they have other things to worry about or any number of other possibilities. As the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere change from fall to winter, it will provide a test of sorts.
I think there is signal that the Global South will be less “afficted” — and not due to under-testing or under-reporting.
My main reason is SE Asia (Thailand, Phillipines) both reported first cases the same time as US / Western Europe. The virus has spread but very slowly. Which is a relief considering Bangkok and Manila are dense megalopolises. Neither country has reported overwhelmed medical systems like US / Iran / Western Europe / China.
The reasons are probably multi-factorial. An intriguing I wish someone would look into is the role of hygiene (or the lack of it).