Abbott has updated its information on its rapid COVID-19 test:
- Through Saturday, April 11, we have shipped 566,000 of our rapid ID NOW tests to all 50 states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico and the Pacific Islands. The majority of these tests have been sent to outbreak hotspots and we’ve asked that customers prioritize frontline health care workers and first responders.
- We’re currently manufacturing 50,000 tests per day, plan to increase ID NOW manufacturing capacity to 2 million tests a month by June and are working to expand beyond that.
- We have shipped more than 1 million tests to customers across the U.S. We’re also shipping these tests to customers throughout the world.
- There are approximately 200 m2000 instruments in hospital, academic center and reference labs throughout the U.S.
I’m having a bit of trouble reconciling the numbers I’m seeing not just here but in other things I’ve read. In particular I had previously read that there were 18,000 ID Now devices installed in the U. S. There’s a big difference between 200 and 18,000. Is there more than one model? I researched that and couldn’t identify one. Is there a predecessor model with a larger user base? Capability and compatibility may be issues.
Whatever the case scaling up to 2 million tests per month by June sounds like a lot but isn’t particularly hopeful if your objective is testing everyone in the U. S. let alone everyone in the world and the thought of scaling up other, less automated testing approaches is even more discouraging.
That doesn’t even start to address the issue of false negatives and positives which originally led me to stumble across Abbott’s update. I’ve read that the number of false negatives is 30% which is being interpreted as multiple tests per individual are needed.
A scientist friend posted this on his FB page today and I thought it was an interesting perspective. There’s a lot to agree with, but also this is from the 9th, so some things have been overtaken by events.
https://medium.com/@coinlieutenant/now-what-8bcf25ddf121
That’s a good article. Note how it underscores the points I’ve been making here but, once again, it fails to take sufficient note of the issue of risk. If the only course of action acceptable to you is one of 0% risk, we’ll be “sheltering in place” forever. It also suffers from “post hoc propter hoc” but practically everything does these days.
I am not sure what to do with the population density theory. Yes, we have lower density, but as with Nevada, a lot of our states have a lot of their populations packed into cities. I wonder if the correct unit for opening up is not at the state level but at the city vs non-city level. I bet you could open up most rural areas, but not sure that helps the economy very much.
I think the numbers are looking better. We are not so much at risk of overrunning our hospitals. But, we do need to be able to monitor to make sure it doesn’t happen. Not sure how we do that without good testing ability.
Steve
Forgot, we have 6000 hospitals in the country. Some are tiny and some are very large. Some places will need more than one unit. Every time I hear about testing it is always bad news, unless it comes form the daily briefing where we are told that testing is perfect.
Steve
A look at what Japan is doing.
https://112.international/ukraine-top-news/why-japan-successfully-combats-covid-19-without-enforcing-a-quarantine-49995-amp.html
What is different is even with the recent acceleration in cases, Japan has very few cases. Despite performing very few tests, extensive exposure to the virus from the earliest days (their first case was late Jan), and no “lockdowns”.
At this point — whatever the factors, the virus is spreading very slowly in Japan. Which makes me wonder if other factors are more important in controlling the virus than testing, or even lockdowns.
I think that for the Asian countries culture matters an awful lot. They were already wearing masks when they thought they might be sick. Not a culture where they shake hands.
Steve
So here is a list of things that China/TW/Japan/Korea/HK/Singapore have done.
1. Everyone wear masks
2. Designated quarantine / isolation facilities for mild cases or potential cases (China, HK, Korea)
3. No handshakes (Korea, Japan)
4. Extremely aggressive contact tracing (Korea, HK, Singapore, China),
5. Testing
There is an obsession over testing and lockdowns in the West, but not much attention has been paid to 1-4, through 1, 3 is now belatedly accepted.
1) Link goes to nice piece from Nature about the problems with testing in the US system. Worse than I thought.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01068-3?utm_source=twt_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews&sf232660560=1
2) I should probably amplify on wearing masks. If I test positive for Covid today, I can go back to work tomorrow and work with patients and other staff, if I am symptom free, as long I wear a mask and everyone else wears a mask. Just a regular mask, it doesn’t need to be an N 95. In many of the New York hospitals they wear only regular surgical masks when caring for Covid pts unless they are doing an aerosolizing procedure (intubating, making pt cough, etc). If people wash their hands religiously they are finding out that is adequate to keep staff from getting sick. As I said before, this virus is not one that is super easy to catch most of the time. Walk past group of Chinese tourists and you dont catch it. Hug someone who came back from China, then maybe you do, especially if they cough.
Also, another general update, we tried plasma on our first pt. We had enough to treat one pt as we had signed up for an experimental protocol. Very sick pt we thought would die got better. Now advertising for plasma donations. With an N of 1 not going to go celebrate, but one can hope. Also, our total hospital admission rate is holding steady but ICU admission and intubation rate is dropping. Team is convinced some part or parts of our cocktail is having some effect. Not curative but keeps some people from worsening. Each specialty thinks it is a different part of the treatment so will need studies to figure it out.
Steve
“I am not sure what to do with the population density theory. Yes, we have lower density, but as with Nevada, a lot of our states have a lot of their populations packed into cities. I wonder if the correct unit for opening up is not at the state level but at the city vs non-city level.”
I think that’s a good observation by steve. This is just an aspect of the focused strategy model. Where I disagree is the notion that rural economic activity is not significant. That’s a cultural bias of monumental proportions.
But it does set the basis for a philosophical debate. In the last ten years all anyone could talk about was repopulation of the cities. Has anyone heard of this invention called the internet etc…………. Has anyone really talked about a concentrated vs distributed economic model?
Because of the untimely death of our managing partner, I am now running the firm. Front and center as an issue is a virtual firm. There are certain issues, most prominent traditional leadership and firm culture issues, but in perspective, all can be dealt with.
Sometimes I assume too much understanding in my short hand commenting style.
I wonder if the implicit comment I made is absorbed. One of perhaps only 5 inviolate investment principles is concentration. Thou shalt not concentrate…………..revenue, profit, manufacturing capability, logistics……….. It applies to our economy, as we are now painfully learning. Rural vs NYC. Think about it people.
Thanks, Steve.
“Thou shalt not concentrate”
Then it is the most violated rule, at least in health care. we constantly deal with shortages. It is almost always because with competition we end with only 2 or three sources for a product. Those factories run at maximum efficiency. If one goes down then the others cannot make up the deficiency. Look at masks. The material for making regular surgical masks almost all comes from a factory in Canada.
It strikes me that price (profit) has become the dominant rule. Concentrating production either in the US or China or anywhere else has been acceptable as long as the price was good.
Also, since Trump just cut WHO funding, lets not forget this tweet.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
Jan 24
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!
Steve
To which I would add that consolidation fosters concentration. Big businesses prefer to do business with big businesses and when there are just a few, very big businesses concentration is inevitable.
And, Steve, I wouldn’t have written that under any circumstances which may be why I’m neither a politician nor a diplomat. My impression is that Trump sucks up when he wants something.