In an article at Foreign Policy, Robert Kagan is panic-stricken over the new new new world order that appears to be emerging, actually more an old world order—spheres of influence:
For the United States to accept a return to spheres of influence would not calm the international waters. It would merely return the world to the condition it was in at the end of the 19th century, with competing great powers clashing over inevitably intersecting and overlapping spheres. These unsettled, disordered conditions produced the fertile ground for the two destructive world wars of the first half of the 20th century. The collapse of the British-dominated world order on the oceans, the disruption of the uneasy balance of power on the European continent as a powerful unified Germany took shape, and the rise of Japanese power in East Asia all contributed to a highly competitive international environment in which dissatisfied great powers took the opportunity to pursue their ambitions in the absence of any power or group of powers to unite in checking them. The result was an unprecedented global calamity and death on an epic scale. It has been the great accomplishment of the U.S.-led world order in the 70 years since the end of World War II that this kind of competition has been held in check and great power conflicts have been avoided. It will be more than a shame if Americans were to destroy what they created — and not because it was no longer possible to sustain but simply because they chose to stop trying.
What’s the alternative? Increasing our economic ties to China as a means of liberalizing the country politically and forestalling any aggressive moves by it is a complete flop. As I pointed out the other day we’re running a massive trade deficit with China. How much more can we increase our economic ties? China is more aggressive now than at an time in the last 40 years.
Cooperation with our allies to enforce an order that we prefer? We abandoned SEATO long ago. Can you imagine the members of the erstwhile Rio Pact standing shoulder to shoulder to oppose Chinese aggression in the South China sea? Me, neither.
NATO would seem to be the likely candidate but other than the United States our NATO allies are actually spending less on defense, both in real terms and as a percentage of their economies, to the point where most are unable to project force at all. Even the most powerful—France and the United Kingdom—have little ability to carry on extended operations with the U. S. propping them up.
Should the U. S. go it alone? We’ve been at war now for more than 15 years. The American people are tired of war without end, particularly when they don’t see an American interest in it. What, precisely, is the American interest in Georgia?
We have no interest in Georgia, we have an interest in stability and peace. For 70 years we have managed to keep the peace and achieve remarkable stability. The world is freer and less hungry than at any time in recent history. Outside of the MENA things are reasonably good.
China’s prodding is a manageable situation. We managed the Berlin blockade and Cuba, we can manage the Spratlies. Or could if we had an adult in the White House. (No One China policy! Okay. . . One China policy! Next Tweet: Taiwan BAD!)
Adopting a spheres of influence approach is, as Kagan said, nothing but an invitation to more and worse wars. It rewards bullies. But after four years of Trump/Putin, with America in full retreat, with Brexit, with the rise of LePen and many more of her ilk, in this new world the 46% have imposed on us, I’ll feel relieved if we reach 2020 without a nuclear war.
Any talk of strategy is pointless now. Trump is not capable of strategy. Have you read the Economist cover story? As every rational observer has figured out, a Trump-Putin strategy is nonsense on its face. Putin isn’t going to mess with China, and it isn’t going to sell out Iran. Meanwhile, Estonians are building an anti-Russian militia. Putin has nothing to give us. . . except of course, Trump.
Yes, by dividing the world into spheres of influence.
We agree that we should pursue peace and stability but the question is is that the practical result of NATO expansion? Or does extending the U. S. sphere of influence into Georgia and Ukraine encourage exercise of long-standing grudges by Georgia and Ukraine? There’s evidence both ways.
It seems to me that your definition of stability is eccentric. Neutral or pro-Russian regimes in Georgia and Ukraine would be stability. Anti-Russian regimes and adding them to NATO is destabilizing.
I also think that you have too much confidence in our ability to manage the situation in the South China Sea. China is not Cuba. It isn’t even the Soviet Union, particularly the post-WWII Soviet Union.
Keep in mind that Kagan clearly wants U. S. hegemony by force of arms.
There are no “American” Israel Firsters who have grown tired of war, Dave. Name one if you can.
They will fight to the last American man and dollar. Chalabi outfoxed them on Iraq, but no matter, now Iran is their target. If Khodorkovsky and Kasparov could overthrow the “bully” they would relax on Russia.
Hopefully Trump is onto them.
I thought it was tacitly assumed that I meant our version of stability, which we tend (when convenient) to define in terms of democracy and human rights on the theory that democracies don’t make wars on democracies.
I don’t think we divided the world into spheres of influence so much as ‘ours’ and ‘will be ours eventually.’ We are quite messianic in short bursts.
The gigantic flaw in this notion of democracy = happy is the Arab Spring, also Afghanistan, Iraq. . . Democracy only equals happy when voters aren’t totally unprepared for notions of shared power and delayed gratification and have some notion of common goals. Doesn’t work so well when your notion of democracy means, ‘now we can kill them all!’
I don’t disagree at all that US foreign policy has been all over the map since the end of the Cold War. We have vaguely-defined goals which we head toward with all the consistency of a drunk driver heading home at the end of a long night. I see it as part and parcel of a larger loss of an American narrative. We did the pioneer thing, we did the rising upstart power thing, we did the WW2 and the Cold War things, but we aren’t upstarts anymore, and we have no real enemies, no real wars (for now) and the frontier is pretty well settled.
It’s hard to make policy when you lack an overall thrust. You can’t draw a map if you have no idea where you’re going. Everything turns to reaction.
So the short version from Kagan and, I guess, Michael is that the US gets a sphere of influence called planet earth and lesser powers should thank us for our global stewardship (which has really been fantastically executed over the last 25 years). Personally, I would like to see the US remain the undisputed and – especially – unchallenged global power if such a thing was actually sustainable. But it’s not, we’ve worn out our welcome and most of the rest of the world has different ideas, particularly when it comes to their own country and region. The unipolar strategic dominance we’ve enjoyed over the last 1/4 century is a historical aberration and it is folly to think it can last.
Andy:
I don’t disagree. Unipolarity was never going to last. Hell, Genghis couldn’t pull it off, and he was rather more determined, shall we say, than we are. Thesis creates antithesis and all that. Nevertheless we managed to create a series of international institutions and norms that formed the west’s post-war zeitgeist. That is worth fighting to save.
An admission that multipolarity will likely be a reality going forward is not the same as assigning a sphere of influence to Putin and then standing back with arms folded while he crushes every last vestige of liberty in his zone. It doesn’t mean abandoning free nations like the Baltic 3 to this murderous thug. Russia lost its empire through mismanagement, we are under no obligation to help them rebuild or accept their assertions of rights over neighbors. They have no right to Estonia or Poland, and where possible and prudent, we should defend free people.
“That is worth fighting to save.”
Who is going to do the fighting and, more importantly, the bleeding and to what end?
While I agree we need to meet our alliance commitments, we can’t be everything to everyone. We can’t meet those commitments alone and we sure as hell should not increase our obligations because we are already on the verge of writing strategic checks that our collective ass can’t cash.
I like my city (New Orleans). It may not be the best in the world, but I like it the way it is (was pre-Katrina). I do not have a problem with you people coming down here, staying a while, having fun, causing trouble, and, then, getting the hell out. Some of you all want to stay and add some flavor to the gumbo, and there is nothing wrong with that.
But, some of you mother f*ckers want to come down here and start tell us how we should do things, and then, we have to listen to your national this and socialize that. Let me help you out. Un-nationalize, un-socialize, and un-f*ck yourselves first. Then, you can start drilling for oil and eroding your state.
Guess what? The rest of the world feels the same about the US and its spheres of influence and the Pax Americana. Most of them just want to be left the f*ck alone, or at least have somebody with a little lighter boot on their neck. They do not understand and do not know how democracy works, but they do know how having a little less sh*t running down on them would feel.
If the US wants to go into some of these sh*tholes and fix the streets, provide some basic medical care, provide basic security, they probably would not have a big problem, but when you want to change every damn thing that they have known for all of anybody’s life, they might be a little annoyed.
Jus’ sayin’.
Yeah, who are we to tell you good southerners to stop lynching negroes? Louisiana is a corrupt basket case living on the excess federal tax money we Californians shovel your way. So, in a way, you’ve provided a good example of the kind of situation we absolutely have a right and obligation to intervene in. Louisiana, Israel or my teenagers: if you don’t want us telling you what to do, start by paying your own way.
The New Orleans lynchings were well before you were born, and they had nothing to do with race. I doubt that you have any knowledge of New Orleans history. You might pick up a history book once in awhile. Why bother? You have your magic word.
As to corruption, you might want to take a look a little further up north of the River, and if I recall correctly, the last time I performed this exercise, a substantial number of governors were on the naughty list. California’s politicians are as corrupt as any other, but you can comfort yourself with the delusion that they are all “Mr. Smith”, are genderless teetotalers, and really, really care about you.
For decades, Louisiana has been crippled from the limits of oil and gas taxes, and most of the coastal marshes have been devastated through activities of the oil and gas industry. California has a some offshore and some land wells, but there are not the environmental concerns as with the marsh.
I do not follow the state government very much anymore, but I do know that Boy Wonder and his lower the taxes on the oil and gas industry was something well beyond stupid. (You are the wordsmith. Have at it, but I do not want retarded.)
Then, we have the refineries and chemical plants that California seems to not be very eager to acquire. The River is also the sewer pipe for everybody upstream.
The truth is that California has been leaching off of the sh*thole oil & gas states for quite some time, and you a$$holes have racked up quite a bill. Maybe if you all were paying your fair share of gas and oil taxes, the people for whom your heart bleeds might be able to live a little better.
(For all of you free-* whatever’s out there, you do not need to lower the taxes on natural resources as an incentive to get companies into your state. The f*cking resource is already there, and it ain’t goin’ nowhere. Is this really this difficult? No, really?
As a public service, here is a new voting rule: If a candidate has never worked at a real job, not even a lemonade stand, DO NOT VOTE FOR HIM/HER. Ever. Political appointments, campaign jobs, candidate handjobs (manicures, of course), whatever are not real jobs.)
You are the point of my comments. Americans are a$$holes, and nobody wants them sticking their (American) noses in their business. I do not recall the Iraqis calling the US to invade their country, and I am fairly certain that Gaddafi did not call President Obama and ask him to send some a$$wipes to murder him.
American politicians run in wherever they see an opening, and they begin tearing up sh*t. Of course, the US is going to pay to fix it up, and then, the people are supposed to be grateful for the US’s glorious deeds.
(I had to get this in, but it is only related because of your lynchings idiocy. The gated community is obviously racist as all get-out, but the cul-de-sac almost sounds respectable. You all really should find some fancy sounding name for “the gate”.)
“Yeah, who are we to tell you……. living on the excess federal tax money we Californians shovel your way……….if you don’t want us telling you what to do, start by paying your own way.”
Absolutely correct. And since I pay more taxes than anyone here, it’s high time you shut up and do as I say. One vote per tax dollar, that’s what I say. You can start by cleaning my toilet. I’m setting up a Department of Personal Sanitation, and appointing Tasty as Secretary to regulate your work. Run along to the store to buy some sparkling scrubbing bubbles now. When you finish, fill out Form 1674-D-90086 and submit your work and toilet cleaner expense reimbursement for approval. Lucky for you, wait times for approval are pretty good now, about 8 weeks.
From previous numbers I calculated based on net federal expenditures vs taxes by state, California gets more federal money than it pays – about $1200 per capita. Louisiana gets about $2k per capita. The only states that actually contribute more in federal taxes than they receive in federal money are: New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Illinois, Connecticut, Nebraska, New Jersey, Minnesota and Delaware.
And that ignores indirect and non-cash subsidies paid to the states.
With a few exceptions, everything any American sees, feels, hears, tastes, smells, or has ever known has been brought about by the oil & gas industry including refineries and chemical plants. This includes the most organically grown or vegan approved food. Even the Amish are included.
This lifestyle has had a cost, but it has not been paid by the people who have enjoyed it the most. The smartest Americans from the better physical locations were able to make a deal with the local hicks to get the natural resources and products from them in return for a few credit backed dollars, a lot of environmental damage, and the promise of everything being peachy-keen.
Those on the Right are proud of themselves for their ability to f*ck over everybody else (immigration, free-trade, money supply), but the Progressives tell everybody how great and wonderful they are while they quietly f*ck over everybody else (immigration, free-trade, money supply). It should now be obvious for everybody to see that Progressives are just Right wing a$$holes who want to be loved.
I have not even gotten to the issue of the port. People live in places for a reason. Rivers are used to transport goods, and there needs to be a port where seagoing ships can dock. Further north, people live in the floodplains because it has fertile soil, and it has fertile soil because it floods. If you want food, a lot of farmers living in Phoenix, AZ is probably not the best idea. This means that they are going to flood, and some of those in Tornado Alley are going to have their homes flattened.
I would suggest that while you all are feeling high and mighty that you consider what it would be like without the human garbage that defiles the great and wonderful world you envision. You might then want to consider what happens on June 8 or September 12 because the people that hate the US and want to destroy it are after you. They are not headed to my block. They are not headed to the Calliope Projects. They are not headed to “@Icepickville”. They are not headed to “Hacienda @Gray Shambler”.
When you all decide that you want to retaliate against the people that you pissed-off, you never want to throw the pack on your back, to use a rifle and obtain sight picture & sight alignment, to do what you have to do because nobody wants to be a pu$$y on the battlefield, to live as human garbage, or to be treated as nothing more than a political football.
At that point, you come into the places you all have been whining, pissing, and moaning about, and you expect the dumb a$$ed hicks to do your dirty work. The sad, silly, pathetic thing is that they actually believe the crap that you spew in order to motivate them to do what few of you will do.
(I doubt that Putin has intention of bothering me either. I only need ICBMs because you a$$holes want to piss-off everybody you meet, and I happen to live in a strategic location that you all seem to f*cking forget. So, let’s close the city and port. Guess what sh*theads? Things don’t stop there. There are follow-on effects, but for some reason rich Progressives and rich Right wingers cannot afford to hire somebody with a little sense to explain how the world works.)
Dave,
That’s true, those numbers only include federal spending on retirement benefits, nonretirement benefits, grants, contracts and salaries and wages for federal employees.
For my Right wing friends, you can consider the government money to be lowered taxes. If 0% is good, less than 0 must be great. You all should be all for revving up the economy by raising the tax refunds to low income and poor people. Food stamps, Medicaid, etc. are just lower tax programs. Hip-hip-hooray. You just beat those sneaky Progressives at their own game.
Progressives you love to spend money helping people, but as we know, the people you want to help are yourselves.
Has anybody heard from @Icepick, and it has been quite some time since Miss @Janice Gore dropped by (unless I missed her).
It should be @Janis Gore.
I’m fine, Tasty. I used this forum badly for a time, and I apologize for that. If I see anyplace I can make a constructive comment I will.
Thanks for your concern.
It’s been more than three weeks since his last comment here. I assume he’s taking a breather.