Larry Sabato (of the Crystal Ball) puts President Obama’s decline in approval below 40% into historical perspective:
The current White House certainly wouldn’t claim that President Obama is riding a crest of popularity just now. And there’s no guarantee that his wave will ever return. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that three predecessors — Truman, Reagan, and Clinton — were reelected after having suffered the dirty 30s in the first term. Three others were not reelected — Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 (and arguably LBJ as well, though he withdrew before facing the voters in 1968).
Thus, there are precedents to be cited for and against Obama’s reelection. The only thing we’re sure of is that Republicans and Democrats will choose a different set.
The bottom line is that falling below 40% isn’t dispositive and, consequently, that isn’t the number to look at.
The number to look at is 30%. No post-war president whose approval rating has fallen below 30% has gone on to serve another term. And the party holding the White House has changed as well. There’s nothing magical about that number. However, given the distribution of the population between the two major political parties for a president to fall below 30% approval rating means that not only does he not have the approval of the opposition which is rather to be expected he has lost substantial support within his own party.
It’s hard for me to imagine Obama’s job approval rating going as low as 30%. I agree that he remains viable even with numbers in the thirties, especially since he has high likeability ratings. I would be more worried if the GOP wasn’t so likely to nominate an extreme challenger. What does have me slightly worried is will dem voters stay home again in 2012.
“I like dreamin’
Closing my eyes and feeling fine”