“Ukraine Through Russia’s Eyes”

I commend this article, partially derived from Russian intelligence documents, at the Royal United Services Institute by Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling to your attention. Here’s a sample quote:

According to the polling data, Ukrainians in early February were, by and large, pessimistic about the future and apathetic about politics, and did not trust politicians, political parties or the majority of Ukraine’s domestic institutions. Their main concerns were overwhelmingly inflation and the cost of living, with both perceived to be rising.

Trust in the office of the president sat at 27%, with 67% distrustful of the presidency. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had poor approval ratings at −34, but a high proportion of Ukrainians polled still professed that they would vote for him over other candidates. The Ukrainian Army, both regular and reserve, was highly trusted, with 68% of the population supportive, as were military veterans, while regional and municipal governments were comparatively well-trusted with over 40% of the population having a favourable opinion of them. However, other institutions enjoyed approval figures that ranged from mediocre to poor, including the police at 28% and domestic security services at 23%. Trust in the Rada – the Ukrainian parliament – and in political parties was abysmal, at 11% and 8% respectively. And when it came to willingness to serve in the military or otherwise resist a foreign invasion, 40% of respondents stated that they would not defend Ukraine.

The population notably had a high opinion of the military’s capabilities, although this is worryingly divergent from the assessment of professional military analysts. 51% of respondents believed that the Ukrainian Army had the capacity to repel an invasion force, despite Ukrainian technical capabilities being decisively outmatched and outnumbered by those deployed by Russia. They also for the most part did not believe that the Russian military build-up – of which 90% of those surveyed were aware – would necessarily result in invasion. These expectations are in the process of being shattered.

The article goes on to suggest that Russia’s strategy may well backfire.

7 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    That’s a good article and my sense is that the documents on which it is based are likely genuine.

  • steve Link

    Sounds a lot like our numbers. Maybe Putin should invade here next. Half the country already admires him.

    Steve

  • Drew Link

    “Maybe Putin should invade here next. Half the country already admires him.”

    I tend to agree with you. It certainly is a bad look for Barack Obama to have been so dismissive of “80’s foreign policy.” I’d like to see that 50% evidence, though.

  • steve Link

    I said, this is genius. Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine – of Ukraine – Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful. So Putin is now saying it’s independent – a large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that?

    “I’ve already said, he is really very much of a leader. I mean, you can say, ‘Oh, isn’t that a terrible thing – the man has very strong control over a country.’ Now, it’s a very different system, and I don’t happen to like the system. But certainly, in that system, he’s been a leader, far more than our president has been a leader.”

    Steve

  • Drew Link

    Yes, Trump observed and positively commented on his tactics, but did not in any way, shape or form approve of his motives. I know you (and other media/pundit types) aren’t so pathetically stupid as to believe your truly filthy spin. Rather, you are just nasty partisan liars of low moral character. Of that, I have absolutely no doubt.

    If you actually had a rational or honest thought in your head you would have observed that, given the trouble the Russians are having with their invasion, Trump was wrong about the cleverness of the tactics. As have been many.

  • Drew Link

    And now, for something completely different:

    An atheist was taking a walk through the woods. “What majestic trees! What powerful rivers! What beautiful animals,” he said to himself. As he continued walking alongside the river he heard a rustling in the bushes. Turning to look, he saw a 7 foot Bear charging towards him.

    He ran as fast as he could up the path. Looking over his shoulder he saw that the bear was closing in on him. His heart was pumping frantically and he tried to run even faster. He tripped and fell on the ground. He rolled over to pick himself up, but saw the bear raising his paw to take a swipe at him. At that instant the atheist cried out, “Oh my God!”

    Time stopped. The bear froze. The forest was silent.

    It was then that a bright light shone upon the man and a voice from heaven asked, “You deny my existence for all of these years, teach others I don’t exist and even credit creation to a cosmic accident. Do you expect me to help you out of this predicament? Am I to count you as a believer?”

    The atheist looked directly into the light. “It would be hypocritical of me to suddenly ask you to treat me as a Christian now, but perhaps, could you make the BEAR a Christian?”

    “Very well,” said the Voice. The light went out, and the sounds of the forest resumed.

    And then the bear lowered his paw, bowed his head and spoke: “Lord, bless this food which I am about to receive and for which I am truly thankful, Amen.”

  • steve Link

    Sure Drew. What I said was that he admires Trump and there are dozens of his statements to support that. An occasional afterthought, probably when prompted by staff, to suggest maybe he sort of doesnt agree with all of his actions. Maybe someday you will leave the cult and be able to assess the guy with some sense of reason.
    Steve

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