Ruy Teixeira is convinced that Democrats are relying unrealistically on high voter turnout to stave off a disaster in November. He says that high voter turnout is Democrats’ “drug of choice”:
You don’t have to talk to a typical Democrat for any length of time before they evince their touching faith in the wonder-working powers of high voter turnout. Interrogate them a little further and it turns out what they really mean is that the stark choices presented to the electorate by Democrats’ progressive policies and Republicans’ reactionary ones will, if presented forcefully enough, produce massive turnout by Democratic-leaning constituencies (nonwhites, young voters, etc) that will neutralize Republican advantages.
He present two reasons why that won’t work:
- The math doesn’t work
- There is little evidence that it works.
He concludes:
As I have noted previously, Democrats may be better off accepting they will take their lumps in 2022 (while attempting to minimize the damage) but use the election as a teachable moment. That teachable moment should be, above all, about re-acquainting the party with the actually-existing demographics and politics of the country they live in. Given patterns of educational and geographic polarization, they are now at a crippling disadvantage in what remains an overwhelmingly working class and non-urban country. There are simply too many districts and states in the country where polarization redounds to their disadvantage and makes them uncompetitive. That is not a problem that can be solved by “mobilizing the baseâ€. It calls instead for expanding your coalition by persuading more working class and non-urban voters you share their values and priorities.
I think he’d be better of pondering why Democrats are reluctant to try persuasion rather than just telling them they’re whistling past a graveyard and don’t do it any more.
I think the reasons are many. For one thing I think that “safe” seats have caused them to lose the ability to persuade or possibly never to have cultivated it. Preaching to the choir is ever so much more satisfying.
They believe, incorrectly, that people cannot be persuaded.
When you cast elections as apocalyptic contests between Good and Evil, persuading people means you must reach out to evil people. In addition it means compromise becomes a moral failing.
“they are now at a crippling disadvantage in what remains an overwhelmingly working class and non-urban country.”
Not really the issue. They are capable of winning a large majority of the votes but that doesnt win elections. They have only lost that vote in presidential elections once since 1992. They need to win the electoral college. For that they need some of those small states. However, this is an off year. For those turnout really does matter. That said, they really should if not broaden their appeal at least stop alienating people.
https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101
Steve
Steve
Dear Steve –
Heh. Anyone making less than $150K a year is being sucked dry. Look at their basic expenditures. House or rent, cars, food, entertainment. God forbid they are financing education. And the truth? These are less than $100K earners.
These are not urban dwellers. Bankers, Ibankers, lawyers, doctors, accountants, consultants, business owners……….and so on.
How are they going to win them. They are not zealots into LBGQelemenop, Antifa, BLM, and so on.
Your party has gone way, way off the reservation. I told you so yeras ago. You pooh-poohed it. Well, here we are.
I’m going to draft off of Drew’s comments a bit….what issues absorb most democrats focus —->. gender, transgender, correct pronoun usage, CRT education, climate change, 24/7 the J6 protest, systemic racism, abortion, equity vs equality and so on. Dems basically are set on cultural transformation while working families are more interested in “kitchen table†problems —-> jobs, the economy, crime, family values. Joe Biden, for instance, wants to block funding for schools who don’t have transsexual bathrooms, or contemplating some kind of emergency order should the Roe decision be overturned. Are these the issues keeping ordinary people up at night? Or, will abortion and transsexual divisions drive masses to vote for the Dems? IMO it’s the Dems narrow agenda, one that most people don’t connect with, that will turn people off and either not vote or vote for the other team.
Grrr. Internet keeps eating my longer responses so keeping it short. The talking points are BS and there isn’t national or large scale legislation pushing the stuff the right worries about. Nice propaganda effort by the right that lives on scaring people though.
But even when the Dems fall short the GOP is so awful now you cant vote for them. Its a personality cult combined with conspiracy mongers. The craziness and ignorance that come out during the pandemic should shame the few remaining rational actors among the GOP and the belief that Trump won still persists with no evidence. There remains no leadership and and an unwillingness to take on the important issues that might lead to loss of power. They arent going to approach health care issues and on foreign policy they are always willing to go to war or are unwilling to end one if it looks hard.
Steve