Not everyone sees President Biden’s visit to Kyiv as a triumphant affirmation of Ukraine’s heroic defense. Here are Harry Kazanias’s remarks at 1945:
The problem for Joe Biden is people are now actually going to start asking real questions about U.S. policy when it comes to the Ukraine war. You don’t need a Ph.D. from Princeton to dream them up: what are our goals in Ukraine, how do we plan to achieve them, and what we are willing to risk to reach them?
And believe me, those are never questions any president wants to answer when it comes to matters abroad.
and
There is no end game, just to make sure there is no media outrage that we aren’t helping Ukraine. You know, Biden has to worry about 2024 and keeping his poll numbers from not slipping any more than they have.
In all honesty I think it’s probably both. I think he was right to provide support for Kyiv. I think we should be more hesitant about supporting Kyiv’s full war goals. Neither I nor anyone who actually knows anything about Russia thinks that Moscow is bluffing when it holds us Russian control of Crimea as a non-negotiable national interest. I’m not as confident about Russia’s view of Ukraine exiting the Russian sphere of influence. Some knowledgeable people seem to think that would be an acceptable outcome for Russia. I think it’s an inevitable one.
If it’s not an acceptable outcome, the Ukrainians, Russians, and we are in for a very bad time of it.
“The problem for Joe Biden is people are now actually going to start asking real questions about U.S. policy when it comes to the Ukraine war. ”
Is this guy really an expert? I have seen people ask that question from the beginning, even when most people didnt believe Russia would invade. This is a bit different than Iraq and Afghanistan where our troops did the fighting. It looks to me like we have been trying to support Ukraine against an invader while avoiding the kind fo direct confrontation that would put us at war. So we are following Cold War rules fairly cautiously, but Ukraine needs to decide how long it wants to fight.
Steve
We should have honored the deal not to expand NATO. We should have let Russia join the EU and NATO as they wanted to do (Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin, Medvedev). We should not have done Iraq I and II, Sudan, Serbia, Libya, Syria, Yemen… We should not have done the coup in 2014. We should not have blown-up Nord Stream.We should get out of Ukraine before WW III blows-up in our face.
We have been making truly bad decisions ever since the fall of the Soviet Union. We are making catastrophic errors in our policies towards China, Iran, and North Korea.
PS Has anyone tested for dioxin in East Palestine? The burn off of the vinyl chloride will have created large amounts of it. Municipal trash incinerators were shut down years ago, because they made trade amounts of dioxin.
I don’t think I’ve ever commented on Ukraine. I certainly don’t hold myself out as a sophisticated observer of Russia/Ukraine history. And I think anyone who thinks they are getting the straight story out of there is nuts. About the only thing I do know is that the observation that Russia will never give up Crimea now is correct.
This is a problem. The munitions and technical support given Ukraine is sufficient to sustain them in endless battle. Russia throws endless bodies at it. Its a perpetual motion meat grinder. A year in we have become numbed. Where is this going indeed?
steve – You might want to take a more sophisticated view. Of course people have asked questions from the beginning. No doubt what the gentleman was observing is that this far into the war our policy is supporting that meat grinder. It will generate scrutiny. And Biden has no answers.
On a lighthearted note, anyone see the air raid sirens go off so Jolt’n Joe could charge ahead. Such a bold man. The only thing missing was Corn Pop.
This is primarily important for maintaining Ukrainian morale, especially when Ukraine is losing territory from a Russian offensive.
But one can’t expect a Presidential visit to do much, or for its effects to last long.
So anyone holding up a nuclear club can do what ever they want with impunity?
“Russia’s view of Ukraine exiting the Russian sphere of influence”
Russia has already made it clear it would accept neutrality for Ukraine and its membership in the EU (but not NATO). As late as last spring, Russia had negotiated a cease fire that would have kept the Donbas under Ukrainian rule (with some sort of autonomy).
It is the US that wants to keep this war going. However, American/NATO weapons are not enough to sustain it. Ukraine’s casualties have been huge, maybe as high as 500,000 killed and wounded. (Russian losses are about 10% of that.) Moreover, half the Ukrainian population has fled the country, which has gone from 38 million people, or so, to perhaps as few as 16 million. Most of the missing are in the EU, and are young men. Ukraine has simply run out of men.
Of course, it is the US that started the war back in 2014. Please pay attention to historical facts. The US has intervened militarily and/or attacked and invaded other countries 251 times since 1991. In every instance, the country attacked was at peace with us and our allies.
For the record, Russia and China have not initiated one war since 1991. Even Georgia and Ukraine were started by the US.
I do not understand how any American can support our violent, aggressive foreign policy. No American celebrates slavery, and almost every American is ambivalent about the conquest of the Indians. No one celebrates the Battle of Wounded Knee (1890). Does anyone celebrate the Mexican War?
All of that history is regarded askance, something that maybe should not have been done, but that was a different time and people, blah, blah, blah. Move on. Pitchers and catchers scheduled to play in the World Baseball Classic reported 2/13 and 2/16. The rest of them will report either 2/20 or 2/21.
My take is the Russians are accepting that Ukraine can/is/will leave the Russian sphere of influence. They are adamant it cannot enter NATO’s sphere of influence — not without wrecking Ukraine so it cannot be used in anyway against Russia for generations.
Putin announced Russia’s suspension of the last active nuclear arms treaty between the two countries. The whole architecture of nuclear arms control is breaking down, something that didn’t happen during Cold War after the Cuban nuclear missile crisis, lets pray it doesn’t lead to regrettable outcomes. This wasn’t predestined, its mainly the result of US policy choices over the last 25 years.
“They are adamant it cannot enter NATO’s sphere of influence — not without wrecking Ukraine so it cannot be used in anyway against Russia for generations.”
My sense is that this is correct.
Bob – how do you know these statistics? The misinformation surrounding this situation is profound.
The most chilling observation on this thread is that Putin just suspended the nuclear arms agreement, which includes the ability to test these weapons. Before this announcement it was revealed Xi will be going to Russia, with some speculation they may be providing weapons to Russia. Xi has also been invited by Iran for a state visit. Do these visits, signaling possible troubling alliances, alarm anyone here?
In contrast the Trump Administration was cognizant how damning it would be to encourage a Russia and China alliance, while Biden’s bluster and policies seem oblivious to how dangerous this coupling might be, appearing to bait, rather than discourage, Russia from going to war with us.
It’s really difficult to say how this will play out. Everything is on the table until one or both sides get exhausted and see some kind of intermediate settlement as a viable political option. Currently, that is not the case.
Drew,
Bob’s casualty figures come from pro-Russian propaganda sources. No one knows for sure the Ukrainian casualty figures as that is a closely guarded secret, but 500k is a ludicrous number – it would mean the Ukrainian military is largely destroyed and that the Russians would be able to take territory unopposed – which they are not doing. A more realistic estimate is around 100k total casualties (KIA and WIA).
Jan,
The Russians have not withdrawn from the nuclear test ban treaty, only the New Start treaty.
Also hard to buy the Russian casualty numbers he cites as it doesn’t fit well with the need to call up so many more troops.
After thinking about it some more I think this was probably a decent time to visit. Six months ago things were going better for Ukraine and he would have been just another cheerleader. Going now when Russia has made some small gains and Ukraine is asking for arms requests to be accelerated will probably provide a small morale boost, maybe help nudge along the arms.
Steve
Andy, The New Start Agreement is the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between Russia and the United States. Basically, Russia is taking the gloves off, and because of their withdrawal from this agreement, creating more tension and unease between these two nuclear powers. This is due to the escalation of the U.S.’s participation (seen as aggression by the Russians) in the Ukrainian/Russian border conflict.
Thank you, President Biden!
To put this perspective Russia has been playing with this for a while. The Trump admin couldn’t not reach an agreement with Russia to extend New Start. In 2021 after Biden took office they did reach a last minute agreement to extend the treaty for 5 years, as allowed in the initial agreement that Obama/Biden had reached. However, AFAICT Russia has not allowed any inspections since signing in early 2021. That suggests they have been planning on doing this for a long time.
Steve
One thing I haven’t seen in comments. We seem to be making the Vietnam mistake. Just enough war to create a stalemate, but no strategy or effort to bring closure……………all in the context of the unresolvable Crimea issue.
Another fine mess.
“Do these visits, signaling possible troubling alliances, alarm anyone here?”
Yes, Jan. I think that is correct. And I’m seeing many serious people pointing this out.
Of course, in perspective, Joe Biden told us long ago that a “minor incursion” into Ukraine by Russia might be OK. (Biden being all Winston Churchill-ish, you know?) So, you know, maybe this is all “minor.” You know, like the “mostly peaceful” torching of US cities. Right?
Jan,
That is true for bilateral agreements, but not every nuclear agreement is bilateral. The CTBT is still in place to prevent nuclear testing.
Drew,
“We seem to be making the Vietnam mistake. Just enough war to create a stalemate, but no strategy or effort to bring closure”
That is, unfortunately, usually the case for a proxy war.