As of today President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at the highest point of his presidency, his disapproval rate the lowest, and the difference between the two just 4 points, according to the RealClearPolitics Index. Even more importantly it is trending in the right direction for him. I think that Trump’s opponents should avoid rooting for coronavirus or economic decline in the hope that will change the trend. It isn’t a good look.
The “news†is as conflicted as our political parties. If you turn to MSM outlets you get a sky is falling scenario, and that the Coronavirus is on a crazy killing spree. Pelosi and Schumer carry such horrific positions like a sanctimonious banner streaming behind them, along with pointed jabs at the Trump administration. Trump, in turn, points to Sanders rise in the primaries as scaring the markets. Consequently, politics, not unbiased facts, rules our information highways.
In the meantime, the government has imposed immediate flight and quarantine restrictions, as well as calling for expediting the manufacturing of items and pharmaceuticals needed in epidemics. There has been a stream of communication between the feds and state governors in dealing with this virus. Israel just announced a possible vaccine breakthrough. The latest fatality rate I’ve heard is .9% compared to ebola’s 90%. In this country, and generally world wide, those effected are still relatively small, with deaths minuscule as compared to the population as a whole. What has been enlarged, though, is the fear quotient, general anxiety and rancor between those vying for power in the 2020 elections. Therefore, while underestimating the virulent nature of this virus is unwise, it’s also unwise to scale it beyond the current impact it’s having here and abroad, by overreacting, creating emotional disarray and cratering domestic and world economies.
The federal government response is mixed.
Good – took strong action early to limit travel from China
Bad – no plans when it spread to other countries, I think they should have put on the table travel bans for South Korea, most of the EU, and Iran on Monday. The CDC did not revise their testing criteria when it became clear this not only a mainland China issue
– CDC screwing up testing
– misplaced messaging priorities. Seemed Trump was more obsessed with the stock market then keeping people healthy
If the US can manage to escape an outbreak in the next few weeks, it is pure luck.
“…misplaced messaging priorities. Seemed Trump was more obsessed with the stock market then keeping people healthy.”
I watched every bit of his news conference. What on earth would cause you to say this? The misplaced priorities have been with Democrat political leaders – starting with racism claims when travel restrictions were placed – and with the press, drooling with cheap gotcha questions designed almost solely for political gain.
And did anyone notice that two totalitarian regimes, China and Iran, escaped all criticism. Shameful.
The major problem with the CDC looking good retroactively, like Curious expected, is that little is being shared with the CDC by China. Analyzing the virus has only been made available by a case in WA. Otherwise, it has been a hunt and peck process in trying to figure out the virus, what works and what doesn’t.
What the Trump Administration can do is eliminate bureaucratic speed bumps hampering drug production and making more safety apparatus available in this country. This they seem to be doing. Setting up quarantine areas for those who may have been exposed to the virus is also happening. Acknowledging test kits need to be improved, reducing false positive results, increasing their numbers for more hospital distribution also is being addressed. Are we totally prepared to deal with the worst case scenarios of this virus? Probably not. However, to overly criticize the steps already taken, in the mill or under serious consideration is self defeating, as it only erodes confidence, increases public fears, and intensifies jaded opinions that the Coronavirus is more politically driven than actually being a possible medical crisis.
The CDC had the virus’s genetic code which Chinese scientists shared before Jan 15, and was used to test in China – the original plan before the delays was to test people who tested negative for the flu on Feb 11, 2 weeks ago. Propublica say the delays was because the CDC was trying to invent a super-test that checked for presence of coronavirus, SARs, and MERs — instead of a simpler test for coronavirus that every else was able to deploy at scale.
https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
As far as what Trump could have done — he could have ordered a travel restrictions around Feb 20 on Iran, South Korea, and Italy (because of Schengen, really most of the EU), when they all started reporting outbreaks. Even now — the Federal Government is not asking for voluntary home quarantines for people coming from those areas.
Now tonight they announced two cases in Seattle, 1 a traveler to South Korea.
Given 3 cases of untraceable coronavirus in 3 different states in 2 days — the Federal Government better start moving fast otherwise a South Korea / Italy situation in the Western States could occur in days.
I think it’s too late for the bad look. In any event, for some perspective:
“The new coronavirus continues to spread with more than 24,000 cases in China and nearly 200 cases reported in other countries.
The outbreak is serious, but if you’re living in the United States, the odds are that the everyday flu is a much more serious risk to your health.
At this point, the seasonal flu carries much greater odds of killing you while in the United States than the novel coronavirus recently identified in Wuhan, China.
“So far this season in the U.S. [there’s been] a mortality rate from flu-like illnesses and pneumonia of around 7 percent,†Charles C. Bailey, MD, infectious disease specialist with St. Joseph Hospital said.
“This should be compared to the 11 cases so far documented for 2019-coronavirus with no deaths,†he said. “Clearly if there’s no panic concerning the current flu season which is a fairly normal one, panic over domestic 2019-coronavirus situation doesn’t seem justified at present.†“
These numbers are now dated, but the point remains. The primary issue is ease of transmission, so multiplying by even a low mortality rate for corona can result in high absolute numbers. I think Dave distilled it down to its essence the other day. Sure, you do all the common sense things and public health protocols, but it comes down to take your chances or quarantine the hell out of the place. Practically make it a police state. But we don’t take that approach concerning automobile deaths, flu, or any other number of life’s risks.
The current commentary is mostly hysterical, or intentionally hysterical for political reasons. See for example, James OTB piece this AM filled with tortured logic, innuendo and speculation.
It’s a bad look.
And while the political class squabbles over Trumps response to the Black Plague, CNN treats the issue with gravitas, noting that that his corona virus team is insufficiently diverse, and America watches this:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yuXjeRG7qqI
With the travel restrictions on Iran – and the “voluntary†restrictions on South Korea / Italy, good.
Let’s hope the West Coast doesn’t have an outbreak — because then the policy options will be hard.
The capacity to forget recent history is amazing. The right wing media attacked how the Obama admin handled Ebola non-stop. We saw plenty of it on this site. Plenty of right wing politicians calling for massive quarantines and stopping air travel. Fortunately they were ignored, expertise prevailed and the outbreak was handled very well.
In this case we have been hampered by a lack of leadership at the start. Maybe health care is unique, I doubt it, but good leadership is hard to come by and pretty valuable. The pandemic response team was disbanded so we lost time at the start. Read CO’s article. The decision to make a complicated test that would cover many viruses, some of which have not even been seen in the US for over 15 years, is the kind of decision you expect from from some financially oriented administrator or some very narrowly focused specialist. Not what you expect from someone with leadership experience in the area.
Yes, there are some people who will try to policies this, though to date nothing nearly as bad as was done with Ebola. What dont we politicize? The fact remains that we didnt have a team in place prepared to handle what we know is going to be a recurring problem. We have been slow in our response. And now we have Larry Kudlow helping run things. Really? Anyway, the odds are still in our favor. Most of these are just scares. We will probably be OK, but as said above it will due to more luck than we should feel good about.
(Really, read that article. The FDA has been making high level academic hospitals jump through major hoops to the extent that it has been impossible for them to test for the disease. Those are exactly the kind of places you want helping with this kind of problem. You want someone in charge who understands the issues and will help cut the red tape when needed. Our head of HHS is a former pharmaceutical lobbyist. He isn’t going to grok this kind of stuff. It looks like he didnt build the kind of staff that can help either.)
Steve
Not from me, surely.
Steve, while you’re busy grumbling about how the current administration has handled the Coronavirus – despite Trump calling it a public health emergency 3 weeks after the virus was isolated, banned flights from China (despite being called a racist), instigated involuntary quarantines, has steadily increased test kits, fast-tracking pharmaceuticals & safety equip. – why don’t you review Obama’s leadership during the swine flu pandemic in 2009. The H1N1 virus is also far more comparable to the present day Coronavirus than the Ebola contagion you bring up for comparison’s sake.
Just as a memory nudge, it took Obama 6 months to call the swine flu epidemic, after it was considered a pandemic, a Public Health Emergency. By this time millions had been infected, 20,000 hospitalized, and somewhere around a thousand had died. And, you’re now citing Trump being incompetent or late in doing something faster, with one reported death of an already health-compromised man, along with identified infections being probably in the 3-digit range! Give me a break!
Which right wing site did you get this drivel from? Do you have any idea how much you are embarrassing yourself? The swine flu is a good example of preparedness and how we can handle the flu is we are prepared. To be honest, most of that credit goes to officials in the Bush admin who had set up a program for an outbreak of virulent flu. When the first cases were coming in from Mexico we started preparing. (My friend down at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, arguably one of the 2 or 3 best Children’s hospitals in the world, was one of the people in charge of preparation for swine flu. It has been written up and cited as an example of what we can do to prepare.) So when the swine flu picked up again in the fall we were prepared. I have linked to a contemporaneous healthcare source. (You probably wont believe it since it doesn’t come from Breitbart, but it is a well respected health care journal. Actually, it is pretty clear you dont ever, ever read original health care sources so this may be confusing for you.) Finally, do you know the number of deaths from the swine flu compared with other seasonal flus? Better or worse?
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20090501.001058/full/
Steve
Had to go into work, so let’s finish this.
“along with identified infections being probably in the 3-digit range! ”
You realize this number is meaningless. We have only had a couple of thousand testing kits. South Korea is testing 10,000 people a day. They can do that because they have the kits and ability to do that. We cant test so we have no idea how many people have Covid-19. We dont, for several reasons. First, the Trump admin got rid of the people who would know how to manage this. Second, the people left in charge decided to not test like the rest of the world. They decided to try to develop a complicated test looking for viruses we have not seen in the US for years. The test failed. Third, the administration which is supposedly interested in cutting regulations would not allow high end academic institutions use their own tests, which they are more than capable of performing. Ironic huh?
” has steadily increased test kits”
Needless to say, wrong. They held it up so that we are way, way behind the rest of the world. Still, we will probably end up OK since history shows most of the time these burn out, except when they dont. But if we do come out OK it will have been due to a large element of luck overcoming the initial weak response.
Steve
The stats dealing with H1N1 infections, deaths and the 6 month time delay, in officially calling this virus a public health emergency, are facts, not right wing stone-throwing retorts. There was even additional criticism of the Obama administration for ignoring advice to close the Mexican border, while saying school closures were too extreme. Appraisals were made that the failure to release Tamiflu more broadly, as a prophylactic for healthy people, led to a higher infection rate than was experienced in the UK. Inaccurate predictions were also cited about how many vaccines would be available by October 2009 – 30 million was the reality figure, vs 160 million promised, prompting outcries and Congressional investigations. In fact, according to a NYT article, the handling of this virus by the Obama Administration was a mixture of “apt and luck,†like what is probably being experienced by the current administration, in it’s attempt to thwart the spread of the Coronavirus, as well as the tanking economy
What is sorely lacking now versus Obama’s reign, though, is a greater lack of cooperation between opposing parties and the news media. One positive aspect in controlling the virus back in 2009-2010 was how little damage misinformation was able to do because of rumors being quickly debunked. Nowadays, dispelling falsehoods, avoiding the fear and anger created, is much more difficult. Already, in the few months we’ve been talking about COVID-19, the media is disparagingly calling this the“Trumpvirus,†accusing him of budget cuts and people being fired that never happened, and miscasting his hoax comments like he disbelieves in the seriousness of the virus, rather than a show of irritation at a media peddling leads and news proved to be false. Furthermore, while VP Pence has been derided as lacking proper credentials in leading the national response to Coronavirus, little was noted when Obama appointed a political operative, attorney, Ron Klein, to take the same position in coordinating a team involved with a much deadlier medical crisis, Ebola. Even the Coronavirus task force has been subject to an environment of disinformation inquiries – Dr.Fauci having to defend himself from the “muzzling accusation,†another female CDC official being corrected by it’s director, Robert Redfield, saying the COVID-19 epidemic was not “inevitable†as she earlier had tacitly stated, an opinion collaborated by the New England Journal of Medicine. To top it off, Pelosi, “prayerfully†grabs any microphone at hand to diss Trump, his policies, his sincerity and/or motives in dealing with this medical emergency. However. what she doesn’t mention are the multiple information meetings she’s attended, never once asking a single question. What kind of genuine interest and concern does that show.
The fact is, I note that always you refuse to look up basic facts, that the deaths from HINI were much lower than a typical seasonal flu outbreak. There was no recommendation to close the Mexican border from a reputable source. We have never closed a border for the flu. There was no 6 month time delay. Response, as I noted from a contemporaneous source, you are just making up stuff or quoting some right wing source that is making up stuff.
Yes, it was apt and luck. The planning was well done. However, the commercial manufacturers of the vaccine found that they weren’t getting good yields in their production. So we didnt vaccinate as many people as we hoped, but we were lucky that that swine flu wasn’t very virulent. Note how this is different than the handling of test kits under the current admin where they planned to make complex kits looking for virus not seen in our country for years. The fault was in the planning.
“accusing him of budget cuts and people being fired that never happened”
He really did fire the Pandemic response team.
If you will recall, there was plenty of criticism of Klain as Ebola czar. I am not sure why you think Pence should be immune to the same. We will have to hope Pence performs as well.
Pelosi? Yes, she is so unlike Republican politicians who did nothing but compliment Obama for all of his decisions.
Steve
Tim Ziemer, the “pandemic expert†voluntarily left the NSC in 2018, following the appointment of Bolton. His team, assembled because of the Ebola scare, was then disbanded and not replaced. This was said to have been done to shrink the NSC numbers, which had become extraordinarily “bloated†under the Obama administration. Although NSC cuts were proposed, they were NOT passed by a bipartisan congressional vote. There is now a WH request for additional funding awaiting a vote by a House more interesting in complaining about non-action than expeditiously contributing what is within their purview.
The 6-month delay – count the months – are months calculated between April 09,, when the virus was identified, to Oct 09, when Obama finally officially called the swine flu outbreak a public health emergency – after a 1000 deaths had already piled up. So far, the deaths from Coronavirus have been in single digits. Nonetheless, before any fatalities had been logged, Trump allowed only 3 weeks to lapse before making the public health emergency call, facilitating the ability to cut red tape associated with R&D assistance.
Having adequate numbers of test kits has been a big sticking point, so far in dealing with Coronavirus. But, this mistake may have been somewhat buffered by the quick actions of closing down the access points from China, helping to contain the rapid spread of the virus – something not done when Mexico was the country of the H1N1 origin.
I don’t recall Klein getting as much negative pushback as Pence has gotten in the brief time he has been appointed to this position. Furthermore, it was clarified that Pence’s role is one of coordinating the messaging, becoming the government mouth piece, not being selected for any medical expertise. That is the job of others named on that team.
Regarding comparisons of virus severity, between the current COVID-19 virus and H1N1, it’s way too soon to make any reliable comparisons. When we have retrospective data available on the current virus, like we have on the swine flu, then we can review which was the more virulent. In the meantime, there are lots of holes in what we know and can expect about the outcomes of Coronavirus – it’s contagion, mortality rate, range of mild to severe etc. What has been revealed, though, is how much misinformation, unfounded angst, finger pointing, and seemingly hoping for the worst case scenario to prevail that is oozing from the resistant-media and opposition-obsessed politicians.