Pollster Sean Trende makes a few observations about yesterday’s election outcomes at RealClearPolitics:
- The Virginia results were bad news for Democrats.
- The results could have been much worse.
- The New Jersey results are much worse for Democrats.
He sees what happened as being a general reaction against the party in power rather than as a reaction against or in favor of any particular candidate or issue as he makes clear in an interview in The New Yorker:
It appears that Democrats’ loss of voters since 2017 was spread across the state fairly uniformly. Is that your sense, and what do you think it implies?
I think that’s right. If there is solace for Democrats, it is that this seems to be a pretty uniform swing from 2020, suggesting that this is about the unpopularity of the Biden Administration, and not some particular issue. It is general disenchantment with the party in power, it seems.
But just as there was speculation about whether Democratic gains in the suburbs are sticking, there was still speculation about the extent of Republican gains in rural areas sticking, and here that appears to be real and significant. If you go back to when McAuliffe ran in 2013, he is running twenty to thirty points behind what he did then in some of these rural areas. I know that, after almost a decade, this is almost old news, but it’s still significant that Republicans seem to be holding on to a lot of the gains in the rural areas that came about in 2016 and 2020.
My advice to the Democrats: stick with the one that brung you. Progressives didn’t win the 2020 presidential and House races for you. The voting bloc responsible for your victory was much more moderate than that. Pass the hard infrastructure bill, take your win, and move on.
Every analyst I’ve read or heard has predicted the progressives are going hard-headed towards passing a huge piece of legislation, not scored, and filled with social programs, green new deal garbage, global warming additives, and underpinned by a ton of bureaucratic crap that will glue these programs in place for forever. Even though a new Harvard/Harris poll was released indicating the people were against Pelosi’s rushed bill, the Dems are simply ignoring their wishes, just like the dem media continues to report crickets on anything but what fits the Biden agenda. Why even have a media that is so compromised and one-sided?
“If there is solace for Democrats, it is that this seems to be a pretty uniform swing from 2020, suggesting that this is about the unpopularity of the Biden Administration, and not some particular issue.”
During the Trump Administration many could not separate policy issues from personal animus, and the hissy fit over losing. They plotted his demise before he even was sworn in, that dirty Russian spy. Even though the direction of the country was positive until covid.
I don’t think that’s the case with Biden. I think Biden is impaired, not too bright, misguided and has an unwarranted arrogance. But there is no real personal animus. Hence I think Trende is off base in the quoted statement. Biden’s administration is his set of policies. Inflation, the border, mandatory vaccination, energy, supply chains and tacit (or actual, See: Garland, M) approval of shoving things down school parents throats as in this article (cited also in a separate comment) have combined to create a backlash.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2021/11/04/indiana-school-administrator-youd-better-believe-we-teach-crt-and-lie-to-parents-about-it-n427026
This won’t go away just because Joe Biden goes away. The policy stances must go away.
Biden is irrelevant. He obviously has no say in his administration’s policies, and the minions openly correct him almost every day.
The modern Democrat Party is a hard left socialist party with a dominant communist wing. They will not back down on anything, and will ride hard whatever advantage they now have, even if they will lose it in 2022.
The main problem the Democrats have is that they are ideologically opposed to White people in general and the White working class in particular. They are not orthodox Marxists, who believe in the international proletariat. They are cultural marxists (lower case) who have adopted an inverted form of Hitler’s racism.
The great majority of Democrats believe they are voting for FDR every election.
PS. The Democrats are claiming to have found lots of uncounted ballots in both Virginia and New Jersey. The attempted fraud could not be more obvious. Do NOT tell me that 2020 was an honest election. Just don’t.
A recent Rasmussen Poll indicated a sizable majority of voters see problems with our voting system. A few data points are as follows:
56% say there was cheating in the 2020 election. 47% black voters say this as well
55% support audits. 53% of blacks support audits.
60% feel preventing cheating is more important than making it easier.
60% say opponents to voter ID want to make it easier to cheat. 63% of black votes say the same thing.
66% say mail-in-voting will lead to more cheating.
These numbers fly in the face of Dems whose mantras are that voter ID suppresses the vote, while in this same poll the continuing support for voter ID is huge among all demographics.
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1455867768046247937/photo/1
A bookend to the Rasmussen Poll is the latest left-leaning Emerson poll showing the republicans with an unheard of generic lead of +7 over democrats. I really don’t think the republicans are that much better. However, with only 2 parties to throw one’s support at it clearly shows how frustrated and disappointed people are with the authoritarian behavior, dictatorial direction, and lack of competence in the Dems foreign and domestic policies, that people are simply looking at the opposition party for help.