As I look through the reactions of various pundits to the developments in Russia and Ukraine, I am struck by one thing. To the best of my knowledge every wargame of direct great power conflict has ended in a nuclear exchange. To my eye that means that we should tread very, very carefully. I hope people are aware of that.
It concerns me that so many seem to be urging us towards war with alarming speed. Selling newspapers isn’t worth it.
I also see a lot of dismissal of Putin and Russia. “Ivory Coast with nuclear weapons” has been mentioned again. I sincerely hope they don’t believe what they’re saying.
Gas station with nuclear weapons is another. Snarky, and with truth. But since it includes the words nuclear weapons its serious by definition. (Remember that, all you Iranian apologists.)
I’m sure people are dismissive of my notion of defanging Putins cash machine: oil. But that’s the sanctions play Putin would take seriously, perhaps in addition to, to a much lesser degree, making life financially difficult for his oligarch and banking buddies. But if Putin is to be believed at all about his aspirations to get the band back together energy is the only thing that matters. We should pump like hell.
Don’t hold your breath.
Either way oil sanctions go can expect an increase in prices and lotsa grumbling about not going to Disney World this summer. The next steps will be cat walking thru a room full of rocking chairs intense.
BTW, how are the Chicago area Ukrainians responding to this. Boston Irish style?
I wouldn’t say that. They are quietly supportive of their friends and family back home but that’s about it at this point.
Russia exports about 5 times as much oil as we do. Would take a long time for us to make it all up. Need oil prices high since so much of ours is fracked.
Steve
“Would take a long time for us to make it all up.”
And yet, oil price has doubled since Biden took the helm. Click the 5 year toggle on this…..:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price
….to see pre-pandemic and Biden era prices. Further, unless you deal in the world of commodities you don’t appreciate how much the marginal unit demanded or supplied moves price. Its not linear.
See this:…..
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrexus2&f=m
……….graph of US exports.
Russia does not export 5x the US. It was 5/3rds before Biden. 5/2.5 now.
Keep spinning.
Those pipelines carrying oil from Canadian oil sands would have been awfully useful now…. But now, its going to take 2-5 years to build them even if we approved it today. Too bad there’s no time machine to go back 7 years.
Short term, the only place for additional supply is Iran — which is why a new Iran deal with waver sanctions should be agreed shortly, notice they are friendly with Russia — so Iran probably won’t increase supply the way Western nations want. Maybe Saudi Arabia; but that would require a humiliating 180 from the Democrats on ostracizing MBS.
There is shale, but Biden would need to replace his EPA, Energy secretary, withdraw his Fed nominees, conjole Larry Fink to drop “E” from “ESG” and convince Democratic congressman to enshine regulatory certainty before shale producers increase capex.
“There is shale, but Biden would need to replace his EPA, Energy secretary, withdraw his Fed nominees, c[a]jole Larry Fink to drop “E†from “ESG†and convince Democratic congressman to ensh[r]ine regulatory certainty before shale producers increase capex.”
All true. But CO hits a nail on the head on a topic often covered here. As your friendly investor and multiple company board member I can tell you in no uncertain terms that companies don’t invest in the face of excessive regulatory, economic or political uncertainty, or hostility.
Joe Biden is simply a disaster of monumental proportions.