Noah Smith has an intriguing post in support of what he terms the “elite overproduction hypothesis”, i.e. expectations of what a college degree will do for you are exceeding reality. After lots of interesting analysis he begins his conclusion with this:
So if the Elite Overproduction Hypothesis is broadly correct, how do we get out of this mess? If happiness equals reality minus expectations, simple math tells us that we basically have two options for pacifying our educated youth — improve reality, or reduce expectations.
Improving reality is very hard, but we’re working on it. The industrial policies of the Biden administration are aimed at jump-starting faster economic growth, and more progressives are talking about an “abundance agenda†that would reduce the cost of living for Americans of all classes. But barring a lucky break like the simultaneous tech boom and cheap oil of the 1990s, boosting growth and abundance will be painstakingly slow going. It will also require overcoming the opposition of a whole lot of vested interests — particularly local NIMBYs — who themselves will be disappointed and angry if the government railroads their parochial preferences to fulfill its national objectives.
A more feasible strategy is to reset expectations to a more realistic — or even pessimistic — level. If we take humanities majors as a measure of economic optimism, we can already see this happening, as young people turn to more practical degrees. Interestingly, Google Ngrams for “a fulfilling career†have now ticked down as well. The over-optimistic angry Millennial generation may soon be supplanted by a Generation Z whose modest expectations echo those of their Gen X parents in the late 70s and early 80s.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but switching from poli sci or art history majors to computer science, business, or engineering won’t help. The reason that big tech firms want more H1-B workers is not that there are no homegrown programmers or engineers. It’s that imported workers accept lower wages and job security. That will continue until the wages in India, Pakistan, the Philippines, etc. match those here.
Said another way a college degree is not a panacea.
Smith is plagiarizing Peter Turchin’s theory of social discord and revolution. Turchin notes that revolutions are top down affairs ( e. g., American, French and Russian) that break out when there are not enough prestige positions for all of the elites. His demographic/economic model indicates that political discord in America is now at least as great as it was on the eve of the Civil War.
Look up Turchin, and buy his books. You will be glad.
As to the evolution of wages, I would somewhat restate your observation as: open borders and free trade move all wages towards the world mean, which is about $5 per hour. Third World wages rise, and First World wages fall, which is essentially what happened to the Chinese peasants and American workers.
By the way, for some time now, large corporations have had staff online all over the world, but especially in India (because English). Work files move internationally from office to office, so the work on projects proceeds continuously regardless of local clock time.
PS. If you can do your work from home via the internet, someone in India or Nigeria or Brazil can do it for less.
Yep.
Dave Schuler: PS. If you can do your work from home via the internet, someone in India or Nigeria or Brazil can do it for less.
Not always. While India has a large educated population, the U.S. still leads in innovation and creative new products. The U.S. will certainly not be the only center of innovation in the future, and the U.S. is not without challenges; but with a long history of entrepreneurship, a highly educated workforce, a liberal society open and motivated by the prospect of change, as well as being heir to vast natural resources, the U.S. is well-positioned to remain a major economic player in the future. Of course, that requires it stops making trillion dollar mistakes and overcomes the political dysfunction and incoherence epitomized by the Trump-era.
Consider the automobile industry. Cars used to be at the heart of 20th century American industry. Then the Japanese entered the international market, upsetting the established order. Now, conventional cars are made in India, China, even in places like Vietnam. The U.S. can’t possibly compete against such huge populations of generally lower-wage workers. But, it doesn’t have to! The U.S. is now producing new electric smart cars, leading the market forward with creativity and innovation.
The U.S. will continue to lead, but only if the Americans doff off the belief that they are #1 because they are #1 and not because they have done the hard work of creating new products and standing for justice and an open society.
{edited a bit here and there}
Having a college education is beneficial when one’s major falls in the STEM categories. However, overall, college prep and going to college is way overrated, at the expense of minimizing the importance of workshop and professional trade skills. Welders, electricians, plumbers, carpentry have jobs that are both high-paying and essential in building and maintaining the needs of society. People/parents, though have cultivated a rather snobbish POV that anything hands-on, requiring manual skill sets is somehow off putting, in comparison to the intellectual acclaim a college degree grants a person. Consequently, jobs in manufacturing are always wanting for employees, let alone finding a good plumber – our’s is currently fishing in Alaska.
Furthermore, even among those who do achieve a college degree, many find employment much more satisfying and lucrative in jobs outside of what their college majors prepared them for in life. That’s why so many with prestigious credentials are found happily engaged in woodworking, artistic and entrepreneurial careers, their diplomas unused and stashed away.
Skimming it, I think Noah missed the larger point that college enrollment has been declining since 2011 or so. My interpretation is that the media coverage of Occupy Wall Street drew attention to the complaints of students with six figure debt with obscure majors finding employment serving coffee. Marginal students (those who are making a close choice btw/ going to college) took from this that going to college was dangerous, and picked another path. I’m still surprised by the number of boys in my son’s class that aren’t going to college whose parents have college degrees. That’s more recent though, perhaps influenced also by the pandemic and the tight labor market.
Noah draws attention to another group focused on degrees that appear to be more translatable to the job market, not just computer science, but political science, psychology and design.
One of my neighbors was a professor at two different colleges that closed in the last ten years, now teaching map at a prep school. I’ve seen some claims that college costs have flattened during this period of student decline, but I wonder if those are inflation adjusted numbers and costs are still rising.
As I think I’ve mentioned before both of my parents had advanced degrees. Not only was my dad not the first in his family to pursue higher education his was the third generation to do so. My mom was a quite different case. Not only was she the first in her family to get an advanced degree she was the first to graduate from college, the first to graduate from high school, and the first to graduate from 8th grade. It was always assumed that my siblings and I would attend college.
Presently, 16% of Americans aged 18 to 24 are neither working nor attending school. I strongly suspect they are not counted as unemployed.
I actually sympathize with the young people saddled with excessive educational debt. I had a substantial lump of educational debt when I graduated from my pricey elite alma mater. A third of my college costs were from scholarships, a third from my working through college (full-time job equivalents), and a third I borrowed. Things were different then. It was not difficult to get a job that would allow me to pay off my debts and I did so within five years of graduation.
Today’s young people have been lied to. I don’t think it’s enough to pay off their debts. I think we need to stop lying to them.
I dont think I have ever known anyone who really looked down on people in the trades like plumbing, electrician, carpenter, etc. I think I see disdain for those who are adults working at McDonalds, maybe WalMart, basic manual labor but not really even much of that. I think there’s a bit too much emphasis on going to college but as PD says that has decreased and last time I looked not that many people were actually in the degree programs people like to make fun of.
I will say that I am a bit concerned about too much emphasis on STEM. Not everyone can do it and we dont want/need everyone to do it. We need some people, eg, who have actual writing and communication skills. Most STEM people doing have those.
Steve
I agree with that. Some people make good engineers; others don’t.
That surprises me, steve, since over the years I have known a very large number of physicians who looked down on anyone who wasn’t a physician.
When those people were common they looked down on everyone, including PhDs, engineers, architects, etc. It wasn’t focused just on those in the trades. But you are behind the times. We emphasize teams much more than individuals now. We expect physicians to provide leadership for these teams, but you need to be able to work with others and part of that is recognizing the value those people provide. If housecleaning doesnt do their part you cant keep the ED moving. If BioMed doesnt keep your equipment functioning you cant do procedures. If you cant communicate well with your PA you might not get to have one and then you do all of the scut work yourself.
We likely fire a neurosurgeon in the next month. They are very smart and technical skills are at least OK, but they cant work well with others. Judgment also iffy since they think they can do anything. They cant. The Dr as God thing is mostly gone and where it exists it may get you canned. Of course you can then go to smaller rural hospitals that are desperate for docs so I guess they still exist. Fired an onco surgeon and ortho guy for similar reasons in the last couple of years (also some anger management).
Steve
“I dont think I have ever known anyone who really looked down on people in the trades like plumbing, electrician, carpenter, etc.”
I guess it depends on how one interprets that. I don’t think there are many people with fancy clothes sneering from first-class, but the idea that college is superior and is where the smart kids go is completely endemic to the system.
Just look at what the average high school promotes and prioritizes. College Prep is everything, trades are now completely missing. There is very little in high school that involves doing anything with your hands anymore. There is very little in terms of “practical” life skill education that was common when I went to high school in the 1980’s. Kids don’t even have the option of testing the waters anymore. Every school district my kids have been in (five districts in three states) to get any high school preliminary taste of the trades requires taking classes at the local community college, which is on your own dime with no bus transportation. Not surprisingly, hardly anyone explores those options.
Andy- I think that is a better way of looking at it. As I said, I dont hear people say disparaging stuff about people in trades, I do hear people encouraging kids to go to college. I am surprised that your school system did not offer anything for kids going into trades. Classes are offered in our individual schools and the three county are got together to create a pretty spiffy school oriented towards kids going into trades. They had a wide variety stuff ranging from restaurant trade training, law enforcement, computer hardware skills and even some nano-technology stuff. It was widely offered and publicized. Well attended.
Steve
steve,
It’s good to hear that’s still available in some places. In the places, I’ve been, anything that could be categorized as trade-related required taking a class at the local community college. It counted toward graduation but wasn’t offered in the school. But my daughter was able to take Yoga as an elective in her junior year at the high school! Priorities.
Even though I ended up in “thinking” professions, I still value the shop and other classes I took in high school. Understanding basic mechanical concepts have been useful throughout my whole life. My kids have had none of that except what little they learned from me.
We also have a rifle team. Won the state competition last year. Neighbor kid across the street was on the team. So many of these memes that get perpetuated are actually not true in large swathes of the country, maybe even most. As I think I said before we had a couple of of nurses in the ICU who kept using the N word and didnt want to stop when asked. In order to avoid firing them we had our very first DEI meeting. Yet I hear from the right wingers that if you arent woke and have daily DEI sessions you will get fired/canceled.
Steve
“If you can do your work from home via the internet, someone in India or Nigeria or Brazil can do it for less.”
I think its a bit more complicated than that. Just yesterday I had a maddening call with an Indian help desk person who was barely understandable.
“Cars used to be at the heart of 20th century American industry. Then the Japanese entered the international market, upsetting the established order. Now, conventional cars are made in India, China, even in places like Vietnam. The U.S. can’t possibly compete against such huge populations of generally lower-wage workers.”
Again, I think its more complicated. The US auto industry was producing pure crap in the 70’s. Poor designs, reliability, features and so on. Because I was shipping steel for skin panels to assembly and stamping plants in the 80’s I was routinely in two dozen or more of them – GM, Ford and Chrysler. The arrogance of the US auto people was astounding. And then came Toyota and Honda…….. Competition.
Today’s cars are a vast improvement, spurred by an outside agency.
steve would know better, but my experience is that he is correct. The “doctor as god” stuff is mostly a bygone era, except for a minority – in their own minds. And I think the procedures guys still retain it the most. Just talk to a surgeon.
” I don’t think it’s enough to pay off their debts. I think we need to stop lying to them.”
Better: don’t pay off their debts; they made choices. But yes, stop lying, and encourage people to do their own homework. But the politicians subsidize it, and you know what that does.
“… last time I looked not that many people were actually in the degree programs people like to make fun of.”
Its the bastardization of traditional liberal arts, particularly the subsets called humanities and social sciences, where the useless stuff comes from. If your psychology or history major resulted in you running around spouting social equity crap you really only have two career paths: teaching others that crap, and pontificating in think tanks and on TV. Not much value add……..
[b]Drew[/b]: [i]The US auto industry was producing pure crap in the 70’s. [/i]
As you point out, it was because of lack of competition and innovation. The point is that the technology to produce conventional products is no longer confined to the U.S. To stay competitive, the U.S. must innovate. And when others catch up to that, the U.S. must innovate again. That will required education, creativity, and letting go of the idea that the U.S. is #1 because it is #1.
No other country has the advantages of the U.S. moving into the future. It’s only the last of the above that holds it back.
If your psychology or history major resulted in you running around spouting social equity crap you really only have two career paths: teaching others that crap, and pontificating in think tanks and on TV.
Such a true assessment!
However, students majoring in humanities have primarily depended on intellectual acumen to pave their way into the job market, especially during good economic times. When times are difficult, though, these same people are at the low end of the employment totem pole in securing a good steady job. It’s the ones who have real life skills, perform needed functions (the trades) who can still find sustainable work through both good and bad times.
For instance, a friend of mine got his PhD in history, during a slow economic period, and the only job he could find was a level-entry one operating a copier machine. In contrast met a retired guy a few days ago doing volunteer work for the park service. In sharing his life story, he started and stayed in construction, yielding a lifestyle where he bought a ranch, built several houses for himself, and was seemingly enjoying a productive, well-lived life, not pontificating, but working continuously with his hands.
“The point is that the technology to produce conventional products is no longer confined to the U.S. To stay competitive, the U.S. must innovate.”
Figure that out all by yourself? That’s such a banal point. That’s always been true. But it is only competition, and true zealotry (see: Edison, Apple etc), that keeps the innovators moving. Its not dictums from regulators, politicians, or special interests etc. All that we get from that is regulatory capture, policy by campaign donation and subsidies. Your advocacy of EV’s is a perfect example. They are still niche; can’t make it more broadly in an open marketplace. Not even close. Wages are irrelevant and a secondary issue here. Not in, say, toy manufacturing, but in EV’s. I’m thinking you don’t have one whit of investment sense.
The real trade issues are beggar thy neighbor postures through subsidy, like China. But Mitch and Hunter/Joe don’t seem to care; they are getting theirs. So that’s a problem. Second, simply the need for transition policy when wage issues dominate. We tend towards pandering to entrenched interests. And third, abandonment, primarily at the behest of environmental zealots, of strategic materials and processes. The icky businesses problem.
Zachriel: The point is that the technology to produce conventional products is no longer confined to the U.S. To stay competitive, the U.S. must innovate.
Drew: That’s always been true.
For a long stretch in the 20th century, competitors to the U.S. were laid waste by war or by political dysfunction. The U.S. also had a large lead over much of the world due to its early industrialization.
Drew: But it is only competition, and true zealotry (see: Edison, Apple etc), that keeps the innovators moving. Its not dictums from regulators, politicians, or special interests etc.
The U.S. government wanted to encourage electric vehicles. Tesla, a trillion dollar business, arose from that effort. China moved towards electric buses as a means to reduce air pollution. They now have half a million electric buses domestically and a substantial lead in the international market.
Drew: Your advocacy of EV’s is a perfect example. They are still niche; can’t make it more broadly in an open marketplace.
Electric cars now represent 9% of the global market, and that share is growing rapidly. Nearly all cars sold in Norway are electric, for instance.
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/chart-global-ev-sales-more-than-doubled-in-2021
In any case, the thread concerns education. While practical skills will remain important for the foreseeable future, innovation and its implementation requires education and a wide breadth of knowledge.
Video games will soon grow to be a half a trillion dollar industry. (The car industry is about $3 trillion for comparison.) As an example, the makers of the popular game series Civilization are hiring game designers, artists, actors, historians, computer programmers, managers, support staff, marketing, et cetera, to put out their new game.
The stakes are huge. When American-designed SimCity dropped the ball on their latest release, Colossal Order, a Finnish company, took over the city-building game market with Cities: Skylines.
steve,
“We also have a rifle team. Won the state competition last year. ”
I’ve seen those in rural districts. And one of my closest friends went to high school in the mountains here and was on the ski team – normals since the school was near several ski areas.
But the rifle thing also reminds me of how much things have changed. When I was a kid (in the 80’s) it was pretty common to see people in trucks with rifle racks with actual weapons on them, even among high school students.
“In any case, the thread concerns education. While practical skills will remain important for the foreseeable future, innovation and its implementation requires education and a wide breadth of knowledge.”
Except that doesn’t work for everyone. We are unlikely to ever get much above 50% of the population with college degrees – the current model for education and “wide breadth” of knowledge.
What about everyone else? What about the people who come here with no skills and who can’t speak English? I’m much more worried about them and their future than I am about anyone who has an education. And I’m sure I’m not alone in saying that I’ve been many highly educated people with a lot of knowledge who were also either stupid or lacked social skills.
And BTW, the Civiliation and Cities Skylines are two of my favorite games.