In the Sydney Morning Herald former Australian Prime Minister and present president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank specializing in Asia-Pacific issues, explores three scenarios that might unfold in the “North Korea crisis”:
So what are the possible scenarios? One, that the US, as China would wish, informally accepts North Korea becoming part of the global nuclear weapons club, and that the North develops its own sets of rules, procedures and nuclear doctrine that enables it to behave “responsibly” as a nuclear weapons state.
Two, a US unilateral military strike to destroy or to retard the North Korean nuclear capability. The conclusion in Beijing is that Washington would never risk the consequences for South Korea, Japan and the future of their alliances with both in such a way. This is also the view held by many others in the wider region and around the world.
I’m less optimistic. Perhaps I’ve been in America too long. As a colleague reminded me recently, war has its own logic. To which I would add, crises have their own logic. The best approach is to avoid crises in the first place
Scenario three is diplomacy. But a potential diplomatic solution to this crisis does not appear to be going well so far.
He neglects to mention the possibility of an aggressive act by North Korea, whether directed against the U. S., South Korea, blackmail, etc. If such an act is impossible, there is no crisis and we should stop acting as though it were. If it is possible, why not consider its implications?
I’m afraid Mr. Rudd’s article is another exercise in wishful thinking posing as analysis.
From where I sit, diplomacy, at least the sanctions part, hasn’t been tried yet. It’s all posturing, promises without followthrough etc. China is trying to discover Trumps true end point. As NK marches on, it seems we need to get there sooner rather than later.
Diplomacy has been tried over the period of the last half century. The players change but the outcome remains the same. Not merely the survival of the Kim regime but a Korean peninsula united under the Kim regime’s rule remains North Korea’s goal. I’m skeptical that Trump will make that much difference. Could it happen? Sure. IMO the odds are against it.
That is diplomacy.
A week or so ago, China announced that it would not defend the North it it initiated military action, but it would it the US did. That statement made everyone shut up for awhile.
China is taking control of the situation, and everyone will obey them.
which is what I’ve been saying for months, years. It’s obvious to anyone who’s been following China’s policies at all closely.
I disagree, Dave. That’s playing diplomacy. It’s League of Nations stuff. Impotent, with Kim playing the role of the Japanese just walking out after a two sentence statement. We can’t play much longer. The stakes are too high.
Let’s see …. after the US, Britain, France, and the USSR (Russia now) had developed nuclear weapons as of say 1950. China exploded an H-bomb in 1967, and against all previous predictions, the world failed to self-destruct. India exploded a nuclear device in 1974, and several more in the 1990s. By and large, this bothered only Pakistan, which also exploded some underground bombs in 1998. Israel has been said to have the material available for building 150 or 200 nuclear weapons since the middle 1980s — there was a Tom Clancy novel back then about a vagrant Israeli missile which Moslem terrorists exploded in Denver, as part of Super Bowl festivities. South Africa claims to have developed nuclear weapons in the late 1970’s and to have relinquished them a decade later; this seems generally accepted.
Notice the world-wide hysteria. The fear. The terror. The teeth-chattering by network TV announcers. The unrestrained pants-wetting by senior American government officials.
Oh, you didn’t notice? Well, it’s only been 70 years that we’ve played around with such “weapons of mass destruction.” You could have overlooked such references easily on TV or internet tubes. (This is slightly satirical, of course, but my memories are being shaped by the days in which nuclear proliferation was seen as the worst threat to humanity since the Black Plague, and Serious People wrote Serious Books about how dangerous it would be if ever a 5th nation — or a 6th! — ever got such weapons).
Then we’ve got North Korea and Iran and from observation, the two of them really drive American politicians bat-shit insane. And y’know what? I just can’t summon up the horror and agony to share our leaders’ atomic pleasures any more. I don’t know if the country is actually in such danger as they claim, or if it’s just an act to shill the voting rubes, but it doesn’t much matter. I just want to eat some popcorn and skip the damned movie I’ve already seen half a dozen times.
I guess I’m just not a very good citizen any more.