There have already been a number of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We don’t know how many but there have been at least three notable mutations: the European mutation which appears to be different in some notable ways from the virus that originally spread from China, the mutation recently detected in the United Kingdom which has been claimed to be more contagious than the variants which have already spread around the world, and a newly-identified South African variant.
Here’s my question. What if one of the mutations is not responsive to the vaccines which have already been developed for SARS-CoV-2? What if that variant begins spreading while we’re still early in the process of inoculating against the one we’ve seen? And the existing vaccines can’t be “tweaked” to handle both?
I know what my answer is to the questions and it’s what I’ve been saying for some time but that seems to be completely unacceptable.
Sorry to beg the question, but I don’t agree with the assumptions. We don’t know if there has been any mutations that have increased transmissibility. What we seem to have is a new virus sequencing technology primarily being performed in the UK which is making claims that have never been proven for previous viruses. So we either have something new happening, or we are seeing something that has always been there, but we didn’t have the tools to see.
There is just as strong evidence that previous exposure to coronaviruses, including those causing the common cold, provides some level of immunity to the COVID-19, which is a good indication that a COVID-19 vaccine should be just as effective with any variants.
I do get that there are unknowns associated with the mRNA vaccine, but I don’t think we have any clue what they are and its just as likely that the vaccine is superior in different ways.
That’s the argument for why the Chinese inter alia have suffered less from the virus than us or the Europeans.
It’s a thought experiment. The premise may or may not be true.
Yeah, I know. I don’t do well with thought experiments.
As a country, we need to have those in government who have the power to get their heads out of the sand and focus on the pandemic before it’s late. The citizens of this country need to get their acts together as well, if we can’t, there may be no economy to be worried about and no country as we know it to call home.
Is the game being played, if I can’t have it, neither can you!?
I think what you’re driving at is how long before the public becomes accustomed to a somewhat higher level of virus related death on a permanent basis.
Answer, some are already good with it, others are terrified, and others are
wondering what Scarlett Johansson will be wearing to the Oscars in April.
What I know matters is how long COVID-19 retains top news billing.
Telling is this from Surgeon General Jerome M. Adams, “Americans are 500 times more likely to know someone recovered from COVID-19 than someone who died of it.” We’ll (survivors) get used to it.
If we reach the point where we can’t find a viable vaccine and we have no treatment that really works then we just learn to live with it and accept another 300k-500k deaths a year. Probably a bit more since we can’t do lockdowns forever and eventually people will stop distancing and wearing masks. On the plus side, Medicare gets easier to manage.
Steve
300k-500k deaths a year
Approximately 1,200/day.
Not on top of the current 8,000/day (from all causes) , but somewhat intermingled as death can have multiple contributing causes.
Unless this virus is something totally new under the sun, it should have it’s day and be gone, replaced by a new worry.
Our ability to see genetic sequences has given this bug a character of it’s own. Fifty years ago we probably would have called it an especially bad flu strain. That’s also given us the ability to act against it, that ability gives us urgency to act instead of only prayer and dread of the unknown.
Average daily deaths will rise because the population increases yearly.
Some news outlets will continue to focus on COVID19 deaths as long as the click count remains high. As interest dwindles so will reports.
“. Fifty years ago we probably would have called it an especially bad flu strain. ”
Probably not. It doesnt act like the flu. We have seen stuff clinically with this that we have not seen with other respiratory virus infections.
Steve