Michael Barone lists some of the ways in which the political rules changed in 2016:
- Money doesn’t seem to matter so much any more.
- TV spots don’t matter so much any more, either.
- Celebrities don’t count.
- Outrageous statements aren’t disqualifying.
- Polling and big data don’t automatically generate the right moves.
- Not being able to understand how the opposition thinks is huuuugely dangerous.
He’s just scratching the surface. How could he have missed the most trumpeted difference in this cycle:
- The truth doesn’t matter much any more.
Or this one:
- Political experience doesn’t matter any more.
But for my money the biggie is
- Professional campaign consultants are useless.
I think that’s the source of a lot of the angst.
I don’t think Trump’s campaign proves this at all actually. Remember, there was a point after the party conventions at which it seemed as though Trump’s General Election campaign was in danger of spinning out of control. Trump’s rhetoric at rallies, in interviews, and on Twitter was becoming more and more of a problem. He was doing stupid things like getting into a PR war was a Gold Star Mother and Father and engaging in personal attacks that clearly were counterproductive. Clinton’s poll numbers were soaring, and Republican candidates down the ballot were being damaged significantly. What turned that around, in no small part, is the fact that Trump brought in professionals like Kellyanne Conway and Paul Manafort, got rid of Corey Lowendowski, and started listening to professionals more than he had in the past. They took control of the campaign and were able to steer Trump toward a message and tone that left few openings for Clinton and the Democrats to attack him. We can’t know what alternate history might have played out like, of course, but if Trump had not hired professionals like this the odds are we would be talking about President-Elect Clinton right now.
Maybe my formulation goes a step too far. Maybe it’s closer to professional campaign consultants won’t win you the election but they can help you avoid losing. In other words they have their place but it’s a limited one.
If professional campaign consultants were the difference between winning and losing, why didn’t Hillary Clinton win? She paid a lot more for her consultants than Donald Trump did for his.
I’m not so sure about that. There was a point after the party conventions when it seemed like Trump’s campaign was spinning out of control. His personal attacks in speeches, television interviews, and on Twitter were becoming more of a problem. He picked a fight with a Gold Star Mother and Father after they spoke at the Democratic National Convention. Republicans in down ballot races were falling behind their Democratic opponents at an alarming rate. Trump brought in campaign professionals such as Kellyanne Conway and Paul Manafort and, more importantly, started listening to them. Those professionals managed to mostly keep Trump on message, tone down much of his rhetoric, and get the campaign on message. But for them, it’s likely that Trump’s campaign would have continued its downward spiral notwithstanding the leaks about Clinton’s email and other problems that plagued her campaign and it’s possible that we’d be talking about President-Elect Clinton right now instead of President-Elect Trump.
@Doug, you’re talking about a very specific, and inexpensive, part of the political consulting job, one that could be filled by a trusted family-member or friend. The Atlantic Monthly had an article a few months ago highlighting that there is not much analytical support for most of what political consultants do, and they spend a lot of money doing it anyway and blame the candidate’s weaknesses when he loses. I like this bit:
“If Trump loses, being out-campaigned will surely be a major part of the explanation pundits reach for. (As Whit Ayres, Marco Rubio’s former pollster, told me at the Pollies, “If Donald Trump becomes president of the United States, then you can tell me we don’t need political consultants anymore.â€) The Republican convention in July was a slipshod affair that underscored just how bare-bones his campaign remains, with a tiny staff, no field operation, little advertising presence—lacking even the ability to make sure a major speech wasn’t plagiarized.”
“But will a Trump loss really have been the result of too few field offices, not enough data crunching, an insufficiency of policy speeches on teleprompters? Or will it have been because the candidate offered a profoundly alienating vision that split his own party and repelled the majority of the modern electorate—a liability no consultant could have overcome?”
There’s Nothing Better Than a Scared, Rich Candidate
First, the truth has never mattered in these things.
Second, political experience should be disqualifying if all of it is bad. Hillary’s resume was filled with a few modest successes, many disasters, and one large question. That question was, “If she wasn’t the wife of the most successful politician of her generation, would anyone have ever even heard of her?”
As for political consultants, I’ll agree with Dave’s original comment, as amended by PD’s response to Mataconis.
But the biggest takeaway is that the major news media has completely lost the American people now, and it’s surprising it took this long. Just look at the series of Time covers for a concise view of how ducked up coverage was: first the “Meltdown” cover (from August, I believe); then the “Total Meltdown” cover from shortly before the election; then the cover featuring President-elect Trump; and finally the “Person of the Year” cover. The press has been obviously in the tank for one candidate, and thus lacks anything approaching credibility.
Incidentally, all the pant-shitting “O.M.G. Trump is a fascist” commentary has completely ignored just how bad it would have been to have a President whom the news media dared not criticize. But that’s because we’ve had the condition for almost eight years now.
Incidentally, I keep hearing arguments around the “right message, wrong messenger” troupe, but I still can’t get anyone to tell me what Hillary actually campaigned _for_, besides electing Hillary president.
The consultants mattered a lot. I don’t think Trump stopped his steady string of stupid tweets w/o their influence. I also strongly suspect they helped craft his message towards the working class and helped him to tone down the worst of his anti-brown people talk.
Steve