At The Week Harry J. Kazianis speculates about what would happen if North Korea actually attacked its neighbors:
First, North Korean armed forces would launch a massive assault on Seoul, firing hundreds of artillery shells that devastate the outskirts of South Korea’s capital. Caught off guard, the residents of Seoul would go into sheer panic. People would flee the city and head south by the millions. Train stations, airports, and roads would be overwhelmed.
Meanwhile, North Korea would launch a coordinated cyber-attack on the south’s top financial intuitions as well as Seoul’s power grid and waste-treatment stations. Millions of people would be without access to cash, power, and other critical resources. A state of emergency would be declared nationwide.
At this point, the conflict is only hours old.
Read the whole thing. This is one of the reasons I’m glad that I’m not president. I wouldn’t want to be in the position of needing to make decisions under circumstances under which practically any alternative is horribly evil.
I think his scenario is a bit fantastical, but the threat of an unintended war is certainly real.
Guy lacks imagination. He assumes a conventional US response, not a safe assumption. We don’t have to endure an artillery barrage for long, we have the power to stop it inside half an hour. And we can launch a nuclear decapitation strike.
But he also underestimates North Korea. Place nukes aboard freighters, drive them to San Francisco Bay, Tokyo Bay, Hong Kong and threaten to set them off if the US intervenes.
The only winning military move is for the US to strike preemptively, and massively – NK nukes, artillery emplacements, ports, airfields, command and control. It would mean hundreds of thousands of NK dead from the initial strike, perhaps millions from starvation and the effects of radiation if we use nukes. (And it would require the support of SK and Japan, that’s hard to imagine.)
Yes, but if you were we would all sleep more soundly at night. Well. . . you wouldn’t. The rest of us would.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
US #1, 0.0897
South Korea #11, 0.2824
North Korea #25, 0.4442
Roy:
Yeah, we had those same advantages over the North Koreans last time, and later the Vietnamese. And the Taliban. And ISIS. How’d those work out?
Numbers mean nothing by themselves, without context. You’re telling me they’ve got half as many troops as we have – but 100% of their army is committed in-theater, while ours is spread across two on-going wars and multiple commitments. Think maybe there will be open debates in SK, Japan and the US so any notion of surprise is absurd? You think the NKs will not notice the months-long build-up that would have to take place in SK and Japan? Because what, they don’t have agents in place? And if you’re Kim Jong Un and you see a build-up, what do you do? Twiddle your thumbs? Or do you sneak a nuke onto a freighter? Or start shelling Seoul? Or fire biological agents over the border?
The only winning military move is something that will tar us with charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and quite possibly genocide. So let’s not all trip into this thing with a bunch of rosy-scenarios. Again.
The article is asinine, and the author is a know nothing.
If anything happens on the Korean peninsula, China will be involved almost from the git-go. Any discussion that does not include China is BS.
In a new Korean war, the North Korean army will be Chinese auxiliaries, and very useful ones indeed. The Norks will do the bulk of the fighting until the Chinese show up in force, which may take two to four weeks. This time the Chinese bring a modern army, navy and air force. They had none of that the last time, and they defeated us, driving us all the way from the Yalu River to the 38th Parallel. They apparently ran out of logistical support and that point, and their offensive stalled out. Note that the Chinese did NOT have a North Korean army during their offensive, because it had been destroyed in detail.
This time the Chinese/North Koreans begin at the 38th Parallel. The Chinese will be able to close off the East China Sea and will be able to battle the US for air superiority over the whole peninsula. The likely outcome is that they capture the whole peninsula and establish a North Korean government for the whole. They may take the opportunity to replace the Kim family.
The big question is whether the war expands. Japan might enter it. If so, Russia will follow. Note that Russia had some participation in both the Korean and Vietnamese wars, generally as advisors and fighter pilots. Then anything might happen.
It seems to me that every time the Kim’s have started to rattle the sabers what they really want is freighters full of grain. No sense in the world going to war over this inconsequential place. But always remember there are people on our side who would welcome that and all the profits that come with war to those with connections.
I would expect the North Korean cyber attacks to happen first. And for there to be a lot of debate and hand wringing about how to respond — do we use force when they haven’t, and tip the situation into an open war?
Munitions have a shelf-life, and military equipment must be kept in working condition.
@michael reynolds is correct about the initial artillery barrage being short. There are counter-batteries with the ability to locate the enemy’s position, and the technology is more sophisticated than a map, compass, and binoculars. There are also fighter-bombers hunting from above, and they can locate mobile artillery or rockets.
The charging hordes of North Korean soldiers are easily repelled by an interlocking field of fire and combined arms.