There’s an interesting article at Sandboxx by Tory Rich throwing cold water on the claims that Ukraine’s and Taiwan’s situations are just alike. Similarities include:
- Both are threatened (in Ukraine’s case invaded) by a much larger neighbor
- Just as Russia has has been conducting military exercises near Ukraine’s border, so has China staged mock invasions of Taiwan
- Neither is a member of NATO
- U. S. support is ambiguous, both for Taiwan and Ukraine
but the differences are even more striking:
- Taiwan has a substantial natural advantage
- Taiwan has been resistant, even hostile to China going right back to the origins of modern Taiwan
- China’s military is not yet prepared for an invasion of Taiwan
to which I would add:
- Russia’s per capita GDP is more than twice that in Ukraine; the situation is reversed with respect to China and Taiwan—Taiwan’s per capita GDP is almost three times that in China.
- The U. S. has actual interests in Taiwan. Our interest in Ukraine is one of principle.
On the other hand, in 1972, in the Shanghai Communiqué, Nixon recognized that Taiwan was a part of mainland China. In 78/79 we terminated the Mutual Defense Treaty we signed with Chang Kai-Shek. That trumps whatever interests our Ruling Class might have in Taiwan. The American people themselves have none.
The US empire is in decline, apparently accelerating, and our Ruling Class has succumbed to the Thucydides Trap. They will have a war, and we (not they) will lose it.
Considering the actions NATO has taken; once you total up the consequences from those actions; the US has a strategic interest in the Ukraine war now that wasn’t there before.
Perhaps. More important is the political interest.