Walter Russell Mead provides his formula for “Middle East Peace” in his latest Wall Street Journal column:
The old peace process was about resolving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute as a means to reduce the antagonism between Israel and the Arab world. A new process would entail engaging the increasingly robust Israeli-Arab entente to resolve the dispute between Israelis and Palestinians, with a credible U.S. commitment to regional security against Iran as the cornerstone of a new Middle East reality.
If America would clearly commit to work with Israel and the Arab states to frustrate Iran’s drive for regional supremacy, even a right-wing Israeli government, grudgingly and with conditions, might well accept a Palestinian state in return—and Arabs would unite to press the Palestinians to accept such a state and work with the U.S. to make it a success. Developing regional agreements with Israel and the Arab states would not preclude continued American nuclear diplomacy with Tehran.
In the column Dr. Mead touches on but, sadly, does not elaborate on the reason I think that the phrase “Middle East Peace” is a meaningless noise. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and now Turkey are all vying for dominance in the Middle East. Some contend that Israel is, too, although it would seem to me that the Abraham Accords largely dismiss that possibility.
Neither the Turks nor the Iranians are Arabs. The Saudis don’t think the Iranians are real Muslims (heck, I get the impression the Yemenis don’t think the Saudis are real Arabs while the Saudis don’t think that anyone else are real Arabs). Whoever is dominant in the Middle East will inevitably speak loudly among the billion Muslims in the world. The prize is significant.
They can’t all be dominant. The Palestinians? They’re just pawns in this game.
Personally, I think the notion that the Gulf Arab states can convince Israel and Palestinians to a lasting peace is laughable. The most obvious problem is that there is no political entity that can speak for all the relevant Palestinians.
If the Gulf Arabs cannot bring the Palestinians to the table, no one can, and there cannot be any peace for either Israelis or Palestinians. The occupation, with all its evils for both Israelis and Palestinians, will never end.
At present, Iran is positioned as the Palestinians only friend. That is about as bad an outcome as could happen, and it portends disaster in the future.
Trump showed that movement on the problem was possible. On another planet, Biden might ask Trump to be his personal envoy to the region, with the task of settling the Israeli/Palestinian war.
I don’t think the “Israeli/Palestinian war” can be settled or, more precisely, the more Arab countries sign on to the Abraham Accords the more likely it is to be settled. The reason it’s continued so long is that it has been lucrative.