Here are the things that the team at Vox.com thinks are likely to happen (> 50% probability) in 2025:
- The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s preliminary estimates of US car crash deaths for 2024 will be lower than 40,000 (70 percent)
- Benjamin Netanyahu is still Israel’s PM at the end of November 2025 (75 percent)
- There will be a ceasefire in Ukraine (75 percent)
- EVs will make up more than 10 percent of new car sales in the US by the end of Q3 2025 (65 percent)
- Bitcoin’s price will at some point in 2025 breach $200,000 (70 percent)
- Elon Musk is still the richest person in the world (55 percent)
- Antibiotic sales for use in livestock production will have increased by at least 0.5 percent in 2024 (55 percent)
- Bird flu results in the deaths of at least 30 million farmed birds by the end of 2025 (60 percent)
- California’s animal agriculture law Proposition 12 will not be overturned by Congress (65 percent)
- At least one additional state bans lab-grown meat in 2025 (80 percent)
- Max Verstappen wins the Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship (60 percent)
- Charli XCX wins a Grammy for Brat (90 percent)
while here are Karl Rove’s predictions for 2025 from the Wall Street Journal:
Congress approves two reconciliation packages, one for immigration and another to extend Mr. Trump’s tax cuts. Immigration passes first. Tax cuts take time. Mr. Trump doesn’t get more than one of his promised new tax cuts on tips, overtime pay and Social Security.
Mr. Trump’s deportation of violent criminal aliens will be popular, though not easy as progressive state and local governments throw up roadblocks. Attempting to deport illegal immigrants who have otherwise kept their noses clean will be highly unpopular. The courts sustain birthright citizenship.
At least one of the incoming president’s controversial nominees—Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Kash Patel—doesn’t make it. Speaker Mike Johnson is re-elected, though it’s ugly. Twenty-five or more House Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling, forcing Mr. Trump and GOP congressional leaders to negotiate with Democrats this spring.
While a useful exercise, the Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy Department of Government Efficiency doesn’t come up with anything close to $2 trillion in spending cuts. The three amigos—Don, Elon and Vivek—fall out.
There’s a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy. The GOP wins either the Wisconsin or Pennsylvania supreme court contest this spring, but not both.
Mr. Trump presides over a groundbreaking Israel-Saudi Arabia peace deal. It isn’t enough to save Mr. Netanyahu, whose unstable coalition government finally collapses. There’s no immediate cease-fire in Ukraine as Vladimir Putin stalls for time. Friedrich Merz becomes Germany’s next chancellor. Canadian Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The president-elect’s imperial dreams aren’t realized: Canada doesn’t become a state, Denmark won’t sell Greenland and Panama declines to return the canal.
Inflation slows further. U.S. economic growth is less than 2024’s forecast 2.7%. The S&P rises less than a third of what it did the year before. Rather than levying tariffs, Mr. Trump uses them mostly rhetorically to get concessions on trade, immigration and defense spending. Tariffs made up 1.57% of federal revenue in fiscal 2024; they won’t be more than 2.5% in 2025.
Artificial intelligence poses risks, but in 2025 we’ll see how it will transform medicine. NASA launches a space observatory that creates a comprehensive map of the universe.
Josh Allen is NFL MVP, Jayden Daniels wins Offensive Rookie of the Year, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t return to the Jets, and the Chiefs fail to win their third consecutive Super Bowl. “Wicked” is best picture, Ralph Fiennes best actor, and Denzel Washington best supporting actor.
If I find any other interesting predictions I’ll update this post with them.
The Federal Deficit will exceed $1.5 trillion dollars (99% likely, we haven’t gotten under since 2019)
There will not be a ceasefire in Ukraine, although negotiations will start (75% likely, recall it took more then a year to negotiate a ceasefire in Korea)
A supreme court justice (Alito or Thomas) will retire (70%)
AGI (artificial general intelligence) will not be achieved (99%)
A second private company (Blue Origin) will join SpaceX in having a successful reusable rocket (90%+)
A member of the Federal Reservce board of governors is fired (60%, likely to be the vice chair of supervision)
Tiktok will not be banned (as in unavailable from app stores) (60%)
I have given up on making predictions although I suspect that, if there is not a ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of the year, there may be no Ukraine by the end of the year. Ukraine’s population is half what it was 30 years ago. Ukraine is running out of people.
@Curious, seems to me like there are three ways your Tiktok prediction would become true: (1) SCOTUS reverses the lower court decision; (2) Tiktok is sold; or (3) POTUS negotiates a deal to keep Tiktok running. The latter two options are time limited and would need to occur by January 19, unless the SCOTUS extends the deadline. It could be that Tiktok is shut down, but one of those three alternatives occur later in the year, which in that case I would consider Tiktok having been banned.
I think Alito will announce his retirement this year. This was not a good year for him, he lost three majority opinions. (He was assigned to write a majority opinion, but his opinion didn’t maintain the support of a majority, so it became a concurrence) He is out of step with this court, while Thomas is perhaps at the height of his influence.
(I’m not comfortable making this prediction, but there’s probably a ten percent chance Sotomayor doesn’t survive the year given age and health issues (the only justice traveling with a medic)) But it illustrates a policy issue concerning Democrats need to avoid risks if they want to see a majority Democratic court in the next thirty years))