Their Heaven Is Our Hell

Another article on the battle for Mosul that’s worth reading is Daniel Bynan’s at Brookings. He summarizes the military situation:

The military challenges in the Mosul operation are considerable. (The New York Timeshas produced a useful graphic of how the fighting may commence.) Although the U.S. military estimates that there are only between 3,000 and 4,500 Islamic State fighters in Mosul, compared with tens of thousands of members of the coalition forces—and that excludes the advantage of U.S. airpower—the defenders enjoy the considerable advantages of their position within the city itself. Urban turf is a nightmare for attacking forces.

And the Islamic State has had time to prepare. After the group seized Mosul in 2014, its forces planted bombs and dug tunnels and otherwise sought to create secure communications and supplies, even as drones hover overhead. Over one million civilians are mixed in among the fighters, complicating coalition bombing efforts and creating the risk of atrocities from vengeful Iraqi forces.

and then goes on to sketch the complicated web of conflicting goals among our allies.

Mosul has historically been one of the most diverse cities in Iraq. Most of the downtown area is Sunni Arab while the remainder of the city and the rural environs are populated by Kurds, Yazidis, and Assyrian and Chaldean Christians.

The Iraqi government’s (and their Iranian allies’) definition of victory could well be to extend Shi’ite influence in Mosul, in the name of removing DAESH remnants, of course. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the Kurds imagined Mosul as the capitol of an independent Kurdistan. I’m not sure what the U. S. objectives are with respect to Mosul other than uprooting DAESH, far too short term an objective but, then, we’ve always been specialists in short term objectives.

We should be prepared for the possibility that our various allies in the battle have drastically different definitions of victory from ours or from each others’.

If anyone has an idea for how to ensure a happy ending from our point of view at least to the battle in Mosul that doesn’t involve our sticking around to play referee, I’d be interested in hearing it.