David Ignatius hasn’t been the first to point this out and he probably won’t be the last. From his latest Washington Post column:
The “Chinese model,†as enthusiasts sometimes describe Beijing’s autocratic system for dictating policy, can look eerily successful — until you consider catastrophic events such as the recent coronavirus outbreak.
China’s response to the epidemic that began in Wuhan nearly two months ago shows some advantages of its police-state approach, and some severe disadvantages: Chinese authorities can commandeer resources to build a hospital in 10 days. But by stifling bad news and even arresting vigilant doctors, they create deep distrust at home and abroad, risking their ability to be effective.
Chinese people simply don’t believe their government. They know that government health data is suspect, just like China’s official economic numbers. And just as all success is attached to President Xi Jinping, so is every failure. China may be racing into the future, but its bungled response to the coronavirus outbreak is a reminder of how suddenly it can stumble.
It isn’t just hospitals. The Chinese authorities can muster the resources to cause whole cities to be built within a remarkably short period. What frequently goes unmentioned: those cities were frequently not built to whatever standards are in place and they may fall down as quickly as they went up.
He continues:
The public’s distrust of the government emerged in interviews conducted this week by an American business executive who worked in Shanghai for three years and who shared with me conversations with former colleagues there. These Shanghai residents expressed deep skepticism about official data, which as of Tuesday showed more than 23,000 cases and 490 deaths.
“I personally doubt the numbers are accurate. I believe there are lots of missing cases, especially in rural area,†said one of the Chinese residents. “I think there are definitely miscounted numbers as some people died before there were cases diagnosed,†said a second. “Don’t trust the official numbers,†bluntly cautioned a third.
That raises another question. If the Chinese don’t trust the Chinese authorities, how much should we? How do we maintain a trade relationship with China while mitigating the risks that inevitably brings with it?
He concludes:
China’s command economy, managed by a one-party dictatorship, has achieved miracles in recent decades. In comparison, an open and contentious democracy like the United States can sometimes seem like a losing proposition. But we’re now witnessing a striking reminder of the need for open sources of information and public officials who aren’t cowed by political pressure.
Is such openness consistent with continued rule by the Chinese Communist Party? I don’t see it. And I think the CCP would gladly trade economic growth for continued rule. China’s present economic “miracle” was largely a means to that end.
According to some polls – Americans also distrust their government.
The caveat is what Americans mean by distrust and what Chinese mean by distrust are in separate universes. And what they do about that mistrust.
The unanswerable question is whether a liberal open China would have dealt with the coronavirus better. Could it have reacted faster:?
I remember SARS spreading in Toronto and there is always a period of time where confusion and inertia hinder an effective response.
National and ethnic pride has kept the Chinese loyal to their government, because on the whole it took care of them. But the men and women who remember the death and chaos of Kuomintang China, or even the famines of the Great Leak Forward and the Cultural Revolution, are dying off. The younger generation, especially in the cities, resent the constant monitoring and being told what to do and what to say and think. Too much of the outside world now filters into them, giving them alternate views on what life is and what it could be like. Some have said the Coronavirus epidemic may be China’s Chernobyl moment. The Social Credit system, which is simply an electronic version of the Stasi system of internal spying, will keep the people in line for the time being; but another catastrophe, like the Three Gorges Dam breaking as the result of an earthquake, could start a conflagration fuel by suppressed hatred and rage that could end in tens of millions dying.
Remembering how we handled AIDS not sure we should be pointing fingers.
Steve
That’s exactly right. We’re in no position to question the effectiveness of one man authoritarian rule when we haven’t tried it ourselves and our own record is less than perfect. Representative Republics make mistakes but dictatorships by self definition cannot. And when you point a finger, there are three fingers pointing back at you.