The editors of the Chicago Tribune make a plea for reducing the federal deficit:
The yearly deficit has topped $1 trillion — once a nearly unimaginable figure — now for several years running. It was $1.7 trillion in the fiscal year just concluded, and the financial world barely cocked an eyebrow. The federal government has no problem floating debt; the dollar remains strong.
This won’t last. Even America, as economically powerful as it is, can’t run on a credit card forever.
and
Many won’t remember, but the 1980s featured several deficit-reduction efforts involving budget hawks from both parties. There was 1985′s Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law, which sought to tamp down the large deficits during the Reagan era. That didn’t work, but Clinton-era tax increases combined with the economic boom of the 1990s produced budget surpluses.
Since the dawn of the 21st century, however, a combination of ill-advised tax cuts, wars and economic crises and pandering to big-spending progressive agendas have brought deficit spending back with a vengeance. The bipartisan rump groups of the ‘80s weren’t particularly successful, but that doesn’t mean such an effort couldn’t be now.
As was the case nearly four decades ago, lawmakers from both parties have to buy into the project in order for it to have any chance to succeed. Likewise, the president has to provide vocal support, spending political capital to give it momentum.
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, federal insurance programs whose spending is on autopilot, will have to be part of any cuts, since together they account for 45% of federal outlays. Those safety-net programs have proven to be political “third rails,†so any trims to them likely would have to be needs-based.
Remarks like these always remind me of Augustine of Hippo’s prayer: “Oh Lord, give me chastity, but do not give it yet.”
I opposed the Bush tax cuts. I opposed the Trump tax cuts (except for the cut in the corporate income tax which was a necessity). I support decreases in federal spending including the Department of Defense but I also support reducing its mission commensurately.
I do not think we’re going to reduce the deficit while Republicans still believe that all tax cuts pay for themselves and Democrats believe that deficit spending always stimulates the economy. I do not think we’re going to reduce the deficit in an election year.
I think we should reduce the deficit and this graphic from the Federal Reserve illustrates why:
The higher the debt grows the more difficult it will be for growth to offset it..
I just don’t think we’ll do it yet.
The deficit is 6% of GDP. Even with this amount of deficit spending, polls are stating 80% of the country thinks the economy is fair or poor.
We may not like the deficit, and current deficit spending may have a multiplier very close to 1, but imagine what the economy would look like cutting off 6% of GDP; that what balancing the deficit requires.
That’s sort of the point. Herb Stein’s famous comment: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Spending incrementally more than the increase in aggregate product cannot go on indefinitely.
“, but imagine what the economy would look like cutting off 6% of GDP”
Inflation would go way down. Since that is the only economic number that matters everyone would be happy.
Steve
“Inflation would go way down. Since that is the only economic number that matters everyone would be happy.”
That’s why the only good solution to inflation is to be diligent in preventing it from “outbreaking” in the first place.
Once it is out, all the medicine to ameliorate the inflation or its effects (high interest rates, deficit spending to help citizenry, price controls) all have costly side effects as well.
Once it’s better and interest rates are low again we will get to hear about interest rates being too low for people on fixed incomes. There probably isn’t an interest rate level that someone cant complain about. Plus, unhappiness about inflation isn’t actually related to the amount of inflation. From 1981-1991 there were only 14 months, if I counted correctly, with inflation lower than it is now, yet most of that period is seen as some kind of golden age. Unemployment during that time also ran about 50%-70% higher, but that’s an unimportant number.
Steve